Export Growth Continued To Fall But Still Affordable.

Export growth continued to fall: the latest export figures released in April showed a total growth of 21% and a growth rate of 5 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year.

However, experts believe that the current export situation is still within the scope of affordability.

Export growth continued to fall, and 2008 is bound to be a tough year for export enterprises.

Under the combined effect of a series of policy adjustments, such as export rebates, processing trade and the accelerated pace of RMB appreciation, the trend of export decline has been very obvious.

First, so expected.

In 1-4 months, China exported 424 billion 570 million US dollars, an increase of 21.5%, an increase of 6 percentage points lower than that in the same period in 2007.

This is basically the same as the 6.4 percentage point drop in the first quarter.

In the monthly situation, exports amounted to 118 billion 707 million US dollars in the month of April, an increase of 21%, the growth rate was 5 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year.

In absolute terms, there has been a slight increase compared with the export of $108 billion 960 million in March.

At the same time, compared with the growth rate of exports dropped by 45.2 percentage points over the same period in February, 3 and April have returned to a relatively normal level.

In response to this situation, Fan Caiyue, deputy director of the economic situation research institute of the NDRC, said that there had been some concerns about the possibility of a hard landing of the economy for a long time, but it is still within the limits of the current situation.

"As long as the export growth rate is no less than 15%, there will be no big problem."

Fan Caiyue said.

Last month, Chen Deming, Minister of Commerce, said at the Canton Fair that at present, the import and export situation is still within the normal range. He also introduced that he would take a look at some time, and then study the next policy.

The latest figures clearly continue the downward trend, but have not deteriorated further.

Fan Caiyue, deputy director of the economic situation research institute of the NDRC, judged that: at present, it can still bear.

Small and medium-sized enterprises are experiencing double pressures. Although export growth is still within the limits of their affordability, small and medium-sized export enterprises are not having a good time, and profits are gradually being squeezed.

Zhang Zhong, CEO of Wenzhou chamber of Commerce, told reporters that many small and medium-sized enterprises were forced to go bankrupt after they could not digest raw materials, labor costs and RMB appreciation.

The survey of entrepreneurs of the PBC showed that the export orders index continued to decline in the first quarter of 2008, reaching the lowest level in the past two years.

Zhou Dewen, President of Wenzhou SME Development Association, also told reporters that the profit margin of some local businesses was only 5%.

It is not only SMEs that are affected by this.

Data released by the National Bureau of statistics on 14 may show that in April, the added value of Industrial Enterprises above designated size increased by 15.7% over the same period last year, down 2.1% from the same period, down 1.7% from the same period last year.

At the same time, it is also lower than the previous market expectations of 17.6%.

Moreover, from a longer period of time, it is also showing a gradual downward trend.

CICC reports that the slowdown in industrial production is mainly due to squeezed profits after slowing external demand.

According to the reporter's investigation, the export decline in recent period, besides the external demand reduction, the acceleration of RMB appreciation is also an important reason.

Tang Jianwei, the research bank of the Bank of communications, said that the latest empirical study shows that if the real exchange rate of the RMB is appreciated by 10%, China's exports will decline by 7%. If the appreciation rate is 20%, China's exports will decline by 10.5%.

Analysts believe that through a slight appreciation to solve the problem of excessive trade surplus can also be seen as a turning point in regulation and control policy trend.

Wang Yuanhong, director of the finance and Securities Department of the state information center, said that a slight appreciation of the renminbi will bring pains to the trade of clothing, footwear, toys and other industries which are mainly processing trade in the short term.

But in the longer term, this is the only way to adjust the industrial structure.

At the same time, it is also conducive to ensuring a smooth landing of the macro-economy.

The adjustment of export policy still needs to be observed. Besides the appreciation of RMB, labor costs continue to rise and raw material prices continue to rise, all of which may lead to a further decline in export volume.

Wang Yong, an associate professor at the Zhengzhou Training Institute of the people's Bank of China, said that from the published data, there has been a certain decline in exports in the first quarter, and there is also concern in the industry whether the magnitude of the decline in exports is too fast.

As one of the three carriages driving economic growth, the excessive export decline may have adverse effects on maintaining steady economic growth.

According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, 61491 yuan of GDP in the first quarter was calculated at comparable prices, an increase of 10.6% over the same period last year, down 1.1 percentage points from the same period last year.

Fan Caiyue believes that the first quarter of the slowdown in economic growth, the key factor is the decline in exports.

In the "key points of the work of the State Council in 2008" released before the first quarter economic data release, it is clearly stated that the goal of this year's macroeconomic regulation and control is to prevent the economy from being too fast to overheating, curbing inflation, and preventing the economic downturn and avoiding big ups and downs.

Wang Yong also said that it is difficult to draw conclusions from the two or three months' data that the export policy is adjusted.