The US Economy Has Recovered As A Whole, And Growth And Risk Coexist In 2014.

< p > < strong > overall economic recovery continued > /strong > /p >

< p > since this year, the a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > US < /a > has maintained a sustained and mild economic improvement. Especially in the second half of this year, a number of economic data have been significantly improved, and the growth in various fields has intensified and the economic recovery process has been speeded up.

On the whole, the US economy shows strong resilience and resilience, and the situation is more optimistic.

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< p > the revised data released by the US Commerce Department on the 20 day showed that in the third quarter of this year, the actual gross domestic product of the United States increased by 4.1% at an annual rate, an increase of 3.6% over the previous estimate, which is also higher than that of the previous quarter by 2.5%.

This is the tenth consecutive quarter of sustained growth in the US economy, the fastest growth since the fourth quarter of 2011.

The US Department of Commerce said private inventory investment, personal consumption and growth in fixed asset investment were the main factors to support the third quarter of US economic growth.

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< p > the employment market has also improved.

In November, there were 203 thousand new jobs in the US non-agricultural sector, and the unemployment rate dropped to 7% from 7.3% in the previous month.

This unemployment rate has dropped by nearly 1 percentage points earlier this year, to the lowest level since November 2008.

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< p > the real estate market also shows a continuous recovery trend.

In the third quarter of this year, US housing prices rose by 2%, the ninth consecutive quarterly increase. In December, US residential builders' confidence index was 58, rising to its highest level since December 2005.

Some analysts pointed out that since 2012, the housing market has recovered and housing prices have stabilized and picked up. This has further improved the balance sheets of financial departments and families, consolidating the foundation of consumption growth, and building a benign feedback mechanism of "real estate recovery and consumption improvement", which has enhanced the macro demand power.

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< p > > optimistic a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_f.asp" > economic recovery > /a > situation, and financial markets also keep sending good news.

Since the beginning of this year, the US stock market has been very arrogant. The Dow index has risen 22%. The S & P 500 index has been refreshed 40 times in history and has risen 26%. < a href= "http://fz.sjfzxm.com/" > NASDAQ index < /a > also refresh 13 year high point, the total increase is 32%.

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The Fed has also shown a cautious attitude towards the US economy, as it shows signs of sustainable growth in the US economy.

After months of brewing, the Fed formally stepped out of the first step in reducing quantitative easing in December 18th, announcing that from January next year, the monthly asset purchase line was reduced from $85 billion to $75 billion.

Bernanke said that if the economic performance is in line with expectations, the Fed will continue to reduce the size of the debt purchase step by step at next year's meeting.

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Since the P financial crisis, in order to stimulate economic growth, the United States has adopted a series of policies, such as quantitative easing monetary policy, fiscal policy, financial assistance, and so on.

Among them, the Fed's three rounds of loose a href= "http://pop.sjfzxm.com/popimg/fz/index.aspx" > monetary policy < /a > played an important supporting role in economic growth.

The Federal Reserve announced the scale of debt reduction, indicating that it is positive about the current economic recovery in the US.

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< p > < strong > the financial deadlock relieved < /strong > < /p >.

< p > despite the fact that the overall economic recovery in the United States has been improving in 2013, it has been faced with many challenges and pressures.

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The government budget and the debt ceiling have been the focus of disputes between the democratic and the Republican parties in the United States. This year, the two sides have also launched a war of words, and nearly let the US government face the dilemma of the financial cliff again. P

The financial dispute has caused the fluctuation of the financial market and brought a lot of negative effects to the economic recovery of the United States.

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< p > October 1st, because the United States Congress did not reach a consensus on Approving the new fiscal year budget and raising the government debt ceiling and so on, the federal government closed the non core sectors until the 17 day after the Congress agreed to postpone raising the debt ceiling by the new agreement, the closure crisis ended.

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< p > this is the first time in the United States that there has been a government shutdown in 17 years.

The White House said that this incident or drag on the fourth quarter economic growth of 0.25 percentage points, alone in October caused 120 thousand jobs loss.

The international rating agency Standard & Poor's also pointed out that the federal government closed at least has caused us economic losses of $24 billion.

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< p > fiscal policy uncertainty is a difficult problem facing us economic growth.

According to The Associated Press, although the economic situation is improving this year, analysts expect annual gross domestic product growth rate to be only about 1.7%, down from 2.8% last year, mainly due to the tax increase measures which came into effect in January and the automatic reduction measures taken in March this year to curb the growth of consumer spending.

According to the Congressional Budget Office, these two measures reduce the US economic growth rate by 1.5 percentage points in 2013.

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< p > however, there has been signs of loosen the recent fiscal deadlock in the United States.

In the United States, the a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_x.asp" and the Senate "/a" adopted a two-year budget agreement in December 18th. It will become a formal bill after the signing of President Obama.

This is the first budget law that the United States has achieved since 2009.

According to this agreement, the total expenditure of government agencies in fiscal year 2014 will be restored to the level of US $1 trillion and 12 billion, and expenditure in the next two years will increase by US $63 billion, to a certain extent, to alleviate the pressure of automatic reduction.

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< p > Obama said that the budget agreement between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party showed that the political stalemate in Washington began to ease.

These developments, coupled with the acceleration of the US economic recovery in the second half of the year, indicate that 2014 will be a breakthrough year and a year of action.

He said he would consolidate the economic recovery in the coming year and stabilize the federal financial position.

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< p > < strong > future growth and risk coexist < /strong > < /p >

< p > under the background of the budget agreement reached by the two parties in the United States and the strong growth of GDP in the third quarter, many economists have increased the US economic growth expectation for the second half and next year.

According to the latest economic forecast of the Federal Reserve, the US economic growth rate is 2.2% to 2.3% in 2013, and the economic growth rate will be 2.8% to 3.2% next year.

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Jason Furman, chairman of the White House Economic Advisory Committee, said 17, after the economic stabilization and recovery, the future US economic policy will focus on three aspects: continue to promote recovery, raise the potential growth level and alleviate the gap between the rich and the poor. P

He believes that the United States is not very urgent financial drag, real estate investment and consumer support continue, the future economic growth is expected to accelerate.

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< p > however, the conclusion of the budget agreement does not mean that all financial problems have been solved.

According to Reuters, the agreement avoided the biggest differences between the two parties, such as retirement system, health insurance plan, tax policy, debt ceiling and so on. In the future, it will definitely become the focus of debate again.

Gerry Rice, a spokesman for the International Monetary Fund, also said that despite the encouraging news of the budget agreement between the two parties, the United States needs to solve important financial issues, carry out financial reforms such as welfare projects and tax system reform, so as to enhance the financial sustainability in the medium and long term.

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< p > in fact, the debt problem has shown or will come back again.

US Treasury Secretary Jack Lou once again urged Congress to raise the debt ceiling as soon as possible on the 19 th, saying that if the debt limit is not raised as soon as possible, the government will probably have no more money available in February next year and face the risk of default.

Economists believe that once debt default occurs, it may lead to chaos in the financial markets or even plunge the economy into recession.

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< p > analysis pointed out that although the two party reached a budget agreement to avoid the embarrassment of the government's closure, but this is only the first step to break the financial deadlock.

For more than half a century, deficit finance has become the norm in the United States, and the United States is too dependent on finance and borrowing. Huge deficits and debts are the fundamental reasons for the long struggle between the two parties in the United States and the emergence of the US fiscal deadlock.

This fiscal uncertainty is difficult to change in the short term and will continue to affect the recovery process of the US economy.

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< p > in addition, the US inflation rate has dropped further in recent months, continuing to be lower than the 2% inflation target of the Federal Reserve, and it may also bring risks to the economic operation.

Because of this, the Fed strengthened its low interest rate forward-looking guidance on the day of reducing the scale of debt purchase, saying that interest rates could remain at an ultra-low level for quite a long period after the unemployment rate fell below 6.5%.

Most policymakers believe that the Fed will not start raising interest rates until the end of 2015.

This means that the easing monetary policy to stimulate economic growth is far from over.

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