Strong Foreign Trade Is Hard To Save The Economy Down

< p > this week (12 th) announced that "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp "foreign trade < /a > data is significantly higher than market expectations, of which export growth rate increased from 10.6% in December last year to 10.6%, imports from 8.3% in December continued to rise to 10%, also significantly higher than market expectations.

At the same time, the trade balance in January amounted to US $31 billion 860 million, a big increase over last December's US $25 billion 600 million.

Such a clear scale of surplus, which means that nearly 200 billion yuan of capital inflows, will also lead to the January foreign exchange accounted for more than expected.

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< p > however, it is generally expected that foreign trade in February will be difficult to maintain the momentum of January, because the rebound in foreign trade is mainly due to the disturbance of Spring Festival and the demand of the developed economies.

Liu Xuezhi, a researcher at Bank of communications Financial Research Center, said: "while the growth of exports to Europe, the United States, Japan and South Korea is high, the growth rate of Hongkong's re export trade in January has deviated from it to -18.3%, which is obviously inconsistent with the trend of experience since May 2009."

Moreover, the export growth rates of South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam, which were exported to labor-intensive products, declined in January.

Reporters also noted that demand for PMI orders fell sharply in January, and enterprises did not have enough demand for orders to support such a high export reversal in January.

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< p > combined with January a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_f.asp" > CPI < /a > up 2.5%, which is still controllable, and PPI to -1.6% shows that the trend of economic slowdown has not been effectively alleviated, and the first index in January and HSBC PMI data have reached a 6 month low, showing signs of slowing domestic demand.

At the same time, domestic demand weakness further highlighted, the Spring Festival consumption is much lower than expected, agencies generally believe that the first quarter of the economy will continue downward.

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< p > when economic growth is weak, the price level tends to rise with limited momentum, and the current interbank market interest rate shows that monetary policy is still tight.

If traditional logic is used, monetary policy has a reason to support the total demand. Some market participants even begin to look forward to the possibility that the central bank will reduce the reserve requirement ratio.

But at the time of the 450 billion reverse repurchase this week, the central bank did not move, and the inter bank interest rates did not rise (see chart).

It is reported that the CBRC is asking some small and medium-sized banks to provide more funds to ensure that the cash supply of 30~45 days is used to deal with the overall liquidity risk. This undoubtedly obliterated the imagination of loose monetary policy.

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< p > in recent years, China's "a href=" http://fz.sjfzxm.com/ "> currency < /a >, the contribution rate of the rapid growth of financing to the economic growth has obviously decreased, and the main reason for the decline of the contribution rate is that the debt stock interest rate has consumed a large part of M2 growth.

According to Dongguan securities, the weighted interest rate of stock debt can be as high as 7%.

According to the conservative figure of 100 trillion (the debt stock size of our country's banking system is only 120 trillion), the interest payable per year is as high as 7 trillion.

Last year, the balance of M2 in China was 110 trillion, and M2 increased by 13%, that is to say, the net increase in money growth in the whole year was 14 trillion and 300 billion.

Therefore, only the debt stock interest rate consumes half of the new net volume.

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< p > because financial institutions' loan scale and loan placement are subject to regulatory constraints, the banks connect the capital hungry local financing platform and the real estate expert market through the form of off balance sheet loans, interbank debts less than a href= "http://pop.sjfzxm.com/popimg/fz/index.aspx" > financing < /a >.

Infrastructure investment and real estate market, which the local financing platform relies heavily on, are the driving force of China's long term economic growth mode.

The dependence of economic growth mode on investment in real estate, infrastructure and other industries has finally evolved to rely on the rapid development of financial institutions relying on interbank business to inject capital into the central bank.

Once the central bank "weaned", commercial banks' "money shortage" phenomenon appeared.

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The underlying reason for "P shortage" is the "mismatch" of financial disintermediation and the reciprocal profit cycle between financial institutions, which means that financial institutions achieve profits through tricks of the East and West and left handed right-handed tactics, resulting in "idle" financial capital in the financial system and unable to flow into the real economy.

Over time, not only the bank's liabilities are too high, but also the accumulation of financial risks caused by excessive off balance sheet assets, which leads to the imbalance of economic structure.

In response to this, the central bank pointed out in the fourth quarter of 2013 China monetary policy implementation report that the endogenous growth momentum of the domestic economy has yet to be strengthened, and its dependence on investment and debt is rising. The potential risks in the economic and financial field deserve attention. The task of structural adjustment and pformation of development pattern is arduous.

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< p > the consequence of the imbalance of economic structure is that a large number of funds are mismatched to inefficient sectors, and enterprises in these sectors are unable to generate enough return on assets that cover interest.

"The fundamental factor that restricts monetary easing is the imbalance of economic structure and the accumulation of financial risks."

Peng Wensheng, chief economist of CICC, believes that unless the economic growth rate falls significantly below 7.5%, it is hard to expect monetary policy to turn.

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