Central Banks Rarely Respond To Stock Market Shocks

Since P > 2014, China's "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp "> trade surplus < /a > keeps high, foreign exchange inflow has increased significantly, and the banking system is also facing the pressure of excess liquidity. The recent overnight and 7 day pledge repo rate continues to be below 2% and below 4%.

< /p >

After the Spring Festival, the cash flow before the Spring Festival continued to return in large numbers. It also kept the liquidity of the banking system at a relatively high level. The money market interest rate was significantly lower than the previous P.

In this case, the central bank promptly launched the open market short-term repo operation to return liquidity, giving full play to the pre harmonization and fine-tuning effects of the open market operation, easing the excessive growth of the banking system liquidity.

< /p >

< p > "from the historical point of view, it is customary for the central bank to carry out the repo operation after the Spring Festival, which helps to promote the moderate balance between the supply and demand of liquidity in the banking system and keep the money market interest rate running at a reasonable level. This does not mean that the orientation of monetary policy has changed."

The official pointed out that the relatively long term of the central bank, the repo operation period is short, flexible operation, the total impact is limited.

< /p >

In recent years, China's stock market has experienced a downward trend following the upward trend in the past P.

The official said that in the past three weeks, the liquidity of the banking system continued to be loose, indicating that fluidity and tightness did not determine the trend of the stock market.

< /p >

< p > for concerns about the possible outflow of "a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp "> cross-border capital < /a >, the head of the State Administration of foreign exchange said yesterday that the possibility of continuous large-scale outflow of cross-border capital in China is less likely.

On the one hand, the net inflow of cross-border capital in China's trade and investment entities will still be larger.

On the other hand, China's financial and financial risks are controllable, its current accounts are steady, foreign liabilities are mainly medium and long term capital in the form of foreign direct investment, and foreign exchange reserves are abundant, all of which have enhanced our ability to resist external shocks.

< /p >

< p > last weekend, it was reported that the head office of Xingye Bank informed the whole bank of suspending the real estate sandwich financing and the real estate supply chain finance business, and the market was worried that the commercial bank's real estate loan policy would be adjusted.

Yesterday, ICBC, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, China Construction Bank and Bank of communications and other 10 commercial banks announced through the official website, will conscientiously implement the national real estate regulation and control policy, the current real estate loan policy has not changed.

< /p >

< p > < strong > 2000 points support, short line rebound in the reserve < /strong > /p >

< p > after the sharp decline in four consecutive trading days, yesterday, the stock index finally showed signs of stopping. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market was both stubborn and strong, and only the gem fell 0.45%.

This shows that there is a strong desire to rebound in the market, the 2000 point has certain support ability, the stock index short term stabilization probability is bigger, but also announced that the market entered the defensive stage earlier.

< /p >

< p > taking into account the increase in repurchase, the deterioration of real estate expectations, the gradual exposure of trust risks, and the fact that the fundamentals of the economy are not very optimistic, and other factors are gradually being infiltrated, and the positive factors leading to the Spring Festival market are being depleted, and the Limited space for rebounding is expected. In the short and medium term, investors should still be prudent in risk diffusion, and it is recommended to avoid the growth stocks with high valuation and growth.

However, the agency is still relatively optimistic about the development trend of intelligent industries, such as electric smart cars, robots and so on, and the potential opportunities for SOE reform.

< /p >

< p > < strong > large market or short term repair < /strong > < /p >

< p > after the panic market crash on Tuesday, yesterday's stock index opened low in early trading and went down slowly, and then gradually moved upward. Although it suffered many twists and turns in the red and green changes, it still stubbornly turned red at the end of the market and took the first step of stopping.

Analysts pointed out that the short-term repair market is more likely to be staged.

< /p >

From P to yesterday's close, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2041.25 points, up 7.03 points, or 0.35%, while Shenzhen Shenzhen stock index closed at 7319.61 points, up 15.66 points, or 0.21%; Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities traded 96 billion 118 million yuan and 140 billion 839 million yuan respectively.

In addition, the SME board index rose 0.24%, while the gem refers to the pace of continuing adjustment, down 0.45%.

< /p >

< p > in fact, the fierce market trend in nearly 5 trading days has swallowed up most of the gains in the Spring Festival market.

Since the rebound in the 21 round of the Japanese market in January, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen from a low level of 1984.82 points, reaching a maximum of 2177.98 points in February 20th, with an increase of 9.7%.

However, after February 20th, the market experienced a continuous sharp decline. To 26, the index reached a minimum of 2014.38 points. During the period, the stock index fluctuated to 163.6 points, and only 5 trading days swallowed up more than 7.5%.

Judging from the 5 day's rise and fall, only 349 stocks rose, while 2038 stocks fell, of which 1421 fell by more than 5%; this is also a sharp contrast to the performance of individual stocks when the index rose.

< /p >

< p > analysts pointed out that in this case, the market's short-term desire to rebound and the willingness to save themselves are very strong.

Yesterday, the market experienced tough twists and turns, which is the first step to stop the market. The probability of short-term upward repair is very great.

< /p >

< p > with the rise of the index, many industries have changed from green to red, and the industry sector has gone up or down.

Among them, the non-ferrous metal industry rose by 3.36%, far ahead of other industries, and the increase of automobile, integrated, electrical equipment and chemical industry also exceeded 1%. On the contrary, the media industry declined the largest, 2.01%, and communications, defense and military industries, food and beverage, non silver finance, electronics and other industries were in a state of decline.

< /p >

< p > concept, charging pile, lithium battery, oil and gas reform and new energy vehicle concept rose by 5.07%, 4.31%, 4.25% and 4.22% respectively.

On the contrary, many popular sectors such as mobile resale, chip localization, mobile Internet, 4G, smart wearable and Internet Finance continued to adjust.

< /p >

< p > < strong > defense period approaching a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > emerging industries < /a > still play < /strong > /p >

< p > the current market environment is undergoing subtle changes, and the market has entered the defensive stage earlier.

But market research institutions are still relatively optimistic about the development trend of intelligent industry, such as electric smart cars, robots and so on, and the potential opportunities for SOE reform.

< /p >

< p > overall, the situation in the market is undergoing subtle changes.

First, liquidity expectations are beginning to reverse.

This week, although there is no due capital, but after last week's repurchase of 108 billion yuan, it returned to 100 billion yuan on Tuesday and a total of 583 billion yuan after the holiday.

This sent a strong tightening signal to the market, making interbank capital interest rates begin to stop and rebound.

At the same time, there has been a continuous depreciation of the RMB recently. Analysts believe that this may be caused by the central bank's active regulation, but the expectation of appreciation will further increase the fluctuation of RMB.

< /p >

< p > secondly, a number of risk exposure, worry about further fermentation.

In terms of credit risk, recently, some items of Jilin trust and Huarun trust have been exposed to cash risk; while the real estate industry has discounted sales, and some banks have suspended real estate project loans, making the real estate industry risk anticipation increase; in the case of weak economic data, these have made market expectations no longer optimistic.

< /p >

< p > analysts pointed out that under the combined action of these factors, the market ended early in the Spring Festival market and entered the defensive stage. As the 2000 point is a supporting position, it is expected that the stock index will have a short-term rebound under the strong restoration intention.

But the uplink space is very limited.

Considering that the negative factors may be further fermented, investors should still be cautious about risk diffusion in the short and medium term.

Therefore, it is suggested that investors should gradually reduce their initial growth and valuations in the rebound, which will have higher growth stocks. After the market direction is clear, we will layout high-quality growth stocks and related reform theme stocks.

< /p >

"P" more than a number of securities companies are still optimistic about the emerging industries and state-owned enterprises reform two plates.

Galaxy Securities believes that growth stocks are still the main force in the first half of the year, further optimistic about the three major scientific and technological directions, and three major trends in the rectification process: intelligent electric vehicles represented by Tesla, intelligent production represented by 3D printing and robots, and intelligent life based on mobile Internet applications; the main theme of SOE reform lies in business mode and innovation.

Shenyang Wanguo Securities believes that the logic of the rise has been disrupted, but the decline will help the market find calmly looking for the quality growth stocks benefiting from the medium and long term pformation direction. It is recommended to pay attention to the high-quality growth stocks such as the reform of state-owned enterprises and the innovation of touches.

< /p >