Pay Attention To Economic Trend And Prudently Judge Financial Crisis

"The trend of the world economy is not well predicted, but the trend of China's economy has basically bottomed out."

Yesterday afternoon, Li Yining, a famous economist, made an astonishing talk with members of the Shenzhen Municipal Committee of CPPCC.

He said that although the direction of China's economy is near the bottom, how to operate in the future is U or L and W.

Cautiously judging the trend of financial crisis, yesterday afternoon, Li Yining invited members of the CPPCC to discuss the current economic situation.

The members of the field committee first raise their own concerns, and Li Yining answers them one by one.

Almost all of the 20 CPPCC members at the scene are corporate veterans. However, in front of Li Yining, they seem to be all students, humbly asking Li Yining for advice.

The question of whether the current financial tsunami has reached the bottom is the most frequently asked question of CPPCC members.

Li Yining is very cautious about this issue. He said that it is too early to say whether the crisis has passed or whether the "great shock" has passed.

The Chinese economy itself has reached the turning point. However, when it comes to China's economic situation, Li Yining is confident. He is very firm in saying that although the global economic trend is not well predicted, China's economy has basically bottomed out, because in the financial tsunami, China's financial industry has not had any major problems. The main problems lie in the real economy, especially the export-oriented entity economy, and the state has issued many policies, which will soon be effective.

"At the bottom of the valley, will the economy be fully realized?"

It's hard to say. "

Li Yining said that in economics, there are three kinds of economic trends: U, L and W. U is the best way to get up after the economy has come to the ground. The L model will continue to operate at low position after the economy is down, while W will fluctuate and fluctuate.

As to what type of China's economic trend will follow, Li Yining said that we should look at the next stage because there are too many uncertainties.

Li Yining said at the same time that the impact of China's economy is actually superimposed on three factors. Besides the impact of the financial crisis, China's economic operation itself has also reached an inflection point. "Even without the impact of the world financial crisis, China's economy can not be running at high levels."

At the same time, the imbalance of economic structure which has been overloaded for many years has been fully exposed, and has also had an impact on China's economy.

Unemployment is more terrible than inflation. In yesterday's symposium, Li Yining also vividly summed up the three characteristics of China's economy.

He said that the first characteristic of China's economy is to be afraid of cold, not to be afraid of heat. If it is cold, there will be problems, financial revenues will decline, factory unemployment will increase, and society will have problems.

The second characteristic is that the brake is easier to start, because the initiative of brakes is blocked by the government. When the government closes the fiscal gates and the money gates, the initiative of the start-up is not in the hands of the enterprises and the ordinary people. The enterprises do not invest, the people do not buy things, the government only makes good policies, and the economy needs a process to start again.

The third characteristic is that unemployment is more terrible than inflation. If inflation is not vicious inflation, wages and subsidies will be enough, but if the workers lose their jobs, even if they do not pay for their benefits, they will not be able to work.

A good idea: exchange rate disorder is a disaster for enterprises. "Exchange rate disorder is a disaster for enterprises."

The recent devaluation of the yuan has aroused strong concern, and Li Yining said that the RMB will fluctuate at 6.8 against the US dollar. There will be no big fluctuation. The enterprises should adapt to this exchange rate.

Will RMB depreciate?

What is the reason for the recent big depreciation?

Yesterday, the CPPCC members threw a series of questions about exchange rate to Li Yining.

In response, Li Yining said that on the issue of RMB exchange rate, in June 24th this year, the CPPCC held a special consultative meeting, he has made it clear that China should have a phased target of the RMB exchange rate, the goal is 6.8, it can fluctuate, the target should be maintained for one to two years, "if the exchange rate expectations are chaotic, it is a disaster for enterprises."

Li Yining said that since then, the exchange rate has been hovering around 6.8. He hoped that enterprises should not think too much and adapt to the exchange rate first.

It is not cold winter but adjustment period. Under the current financial tsunami, many enterprises use "winter" to describe the predicament facing them.

Li Yining criticized this idea yesterday. He believed that the financial tsunami was only a rest period for enterprises, and it needed to be adjusted again.

"At this critical juncture, every enterprise must have confidence and confidence to find a solution."

Li Yining said that enterprises should not use "winter" such a word, but should be called the rest period. For the CPPCC members, the issue of corporate income tax should be reduced, Li Yining also expressed support for this approach, tax reform should be carried out, "now corporate income tax, value-added tax, personal income tax are very high."

He also pointed out that there is no reason for levying property tax. "The people bought a house very hard, and they continued to pay property tax, which is equivalent to a lifetime mortgage."

He suggested that a one-time levy should be adopted to impose a one-time property tax on high-income groups.

It is too early to say that the crisis is over.

The trend of China's economy is basically bottoming out. As to the type of China's economic trend (type U, L and W), we need to look at the next stage, because there are too many uncertainties.

To sum up China's economy is afraid of cold, not afraid of heat, brakes are easier to start, unemployment is more terrible than inflation.

About RMB exchange rate, the RMB will fluctuate at 6.8 against the US dollar. There will be no big fluctuation. Enterprises should adapt to this exchange rate.

About taxes, corporate income tax, value-added tax and personal income tax are very high now.

It is possible to adopt a one-off levy for property tax on high income earners.

Yang Jing: editor in charge