The Two-Way Floating Of RMB Will Become Normal.

RMB P depreciated 1.17% against the US dollar in March, narrowing compared with February, but in the first quarter of this year, the depreciation of the RMB depreciated by 2.64%, which exceeded most analysts' expectations at the beginning of the year.

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< p > with the successive fall of < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > local currency < /a > and the expansion of the fluctuation range in mid March, the two-way fluctuation of RMB is becoming normalized, and the introspection of the market has also entered the deep water area.

Looking ahead, the market expects that the RMB will remain devalued in April, but it is expected to maintain a slight appreciation throughout the year.

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< p > Ding Zhijie, Dean of the school of finance of the University of foreign trade and economics, pointed out: "the exchange rate is an external embodiment of the domestic economic growth. In the future, the rise and fall of the RMB exchange rate depends on the situation of China's economic development.

"Future a href=" http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp "RMB > /a > changes depend on the economic fundamentals, and rising or derogating two-way floating will become the norm.

Such changes will have an important impact on the economy and finance. "

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< p > other insiders predict that the renminbi will still have a basis for appreciation in the future.

The RMB does not have the condition of long-term depreciation, because exchange rate is an external embodiment of domestic economic growth. Although China's economic growth has slowed down, it is still far ahead of the world's leading economies, and China's spreads are still larger than those of other countries.

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< p > in the short term, the trend of RMB < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > /a > mainly depends on the realization of the US dollar, the economic data, and the propaganda of the monetary authority. In the medium term, the real interest rate difference between the RMB and the US dollar will remain at an attractive level, which determines that the RMB will still have stronger appreciation power in the medium term.

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< p > it is expected that RMB will still have room for appreciation of 3%~5% within 6~12 months, that is, there is still an opportunity for innovation. After 6~12 months, the monetary policy of China and the United States will probably change, and the real interest rate between China and the United States will gradually narrow, and the momentum of RMB appreciation will tend to weaken.

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Liu Qianyu, Vice Minister of information services of the Economist Intelligence Department, said at a press conference in March that the M2 growth in the mainland slowed slightly in the month, but the rate of decline was not serious. It was still controlled by the government in P.

She believes that although the era of abundant money has passed, there is no obvious shortage of liquidity.

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< p > she also believes that the mainland's lowering of the deposit reserve ratio of rural banks is only a pilot policy and is not implemented nationwide. Therefore, it is not expected that interest rates or deposit reserve rates will be cut this year until the first quarter of next year.

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< p > Liu said that because of the good export situation in the mainland, there is no need to adjust the RMB exchange rate to stimulate exports.

She also expects RMB appreciation of 1.4% this year, which means that the exchange rate has been closer to the equilibrium point than before.

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