Foreign Exchange Bureau: RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuation Is Normal.

< p > 25, the RMB spot exchange rate opened at 6.2510, compared with the previous trading day closing price of 6.2489 down 21 basis points, a nearly 16 month low.

If this is calculated, it will cost RMB 625.1 yuan for each purchase of 100 US dollars, compared with the fixed price in January 1st this year, the cost will increase by 20.25 yuan.

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< p > Guan Tao said that the RMB exchange rate rise and fall is a normal phenomenon, so that the market will play an increasingly important role in the formation of exchange rate, which is the established direction of reform.

Since the middle of February this year, the RMB exchange rate has gone down, but since the merger of the 94 year exchange rate, especially since the reform in 2005 July, the current level of RMB adjustment is not large.

From the exchange rate reform in 2005 to the end of 2013, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar appreciated by 36%.

In the 61 currencies monitored by the bank for International Settlements, the nominal effective exchange rate of the renminbi rose first, the real effective exchange rate rose second, and the recent callback rate was only about 1%.

Therefore, we should not pay too much attention to short-term fluctuations, but pay more attention to the long-term trend of the RMB exchange rate.

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< p > in addition, from the current situation, the two-way fluctuation of < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > RMB > /a has already been qualified.

From a macro perspective, the RMB exchange rate is moving towards a balanced and reasonable level. Generally speaking, the international balance of payments in a country is usually measured by the proportion of GDP in current account. The current account surplus or deficit is reasonable only within a certain proportion of GDP. Since 2010, the proportion of China's current account surplus to GDP has dropped to the internationally recognized reasonable standard. In 2013, China's a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > current account < /a > surplus accounted for 2% of GDP.

From the micro perspective, the current capital flow has a greater impact on the RMB exchange rate.

After the financial crisis, the major developed economies have adopted the quantitative easing monetary policy, resulting in low interest rates and wide liquidity in the world, making emerging economies often face the impact of capital flow fluctuations away from their basic fundamentals, and China is also deeply affected.

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< p > according to the newly published < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp > > foreign exchange data < /a >, according to the US dollar valuation, in the first quarter of 2014, China's current account surplus was US $7 billion 200 million, of which, the surplus of goods trade was US $40 billion 400 million, the trade deficit of services was US $32 billion 800 million, the surplus was 3 billion 500 million US dollars, and the deficit of US $3 billion 800 million was often pferred.

The surplus of capital and financial items is 118 billion 300 million US dollars, of which direct investment is net inflow of US $51 billion 200 million.

The international reserve assets increased by US $125 billion 500 million, of which foreign exchange reserve assets increased by US $125 billion 800 million, and the SDRs and the reserve positions in the IMF decreased by US $300 million.

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< p > comparing the foreign exchange data of the past few years, we can find that the proportion of capital account is increasing day by day.

In response to a reporter's question, Guan Tao explained that during the period from 2005 to 2009, the contribution of current account and capital account surplus to China's balance of payments surplus was 73. In 2010, except for a small deficit in 2012 capital account, the contribution of China's current account and capital account surplus to the balance of payments surplus in 2010, 2011 and 2011 turned to 46. The ratio is about 36%: 64%.

That is to say, capital account has exceeded the current account, which has become the main source of China's balance of payments surplus and foreign exchange reserve increase in recent years.

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< p > and the increase in foreign exchange reserve assets, explained by Guan Tao, because domestic enterprises take assets in local currency and foreign currency in debt, or can be said to do more than RMB and short money in foreign currencies, resulting in capital flows in the form of non direct investment in China in 2013, that is, the two items of common sense of balance of payments, investment in Securities and other investments, from 2012's net outflow of US $212 billion 300 million to a net inflow of US $138 billion 200 million, and the amplitude of this increase has reached US $350 billion 500 million, which fully explains the increase in foreign exchange reserve assets increased by US $334 billion in 2013.

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< p > the data released by the central bank showed that as of March this year, the state's foreign exchange reserves amounted to 3 trillion and 948 billion 97 million US dollars, accounting for 1/3 of the total foreign reserves in the world.

High foreign exchange reserves also cause concern. Liu Shengjun, executive vice president of the Lujiazui International Financial Research Institute of China and Europe, talked about the three major worries of excessive foreign exchange reserves in writing for the Wall Street Journal: first, the central bank's foreign exchange receipts need to be invested in the RMB basic currency, which aggravated the serious problem of excessive currency in China. Second, foreign exchange reserves mainly invested in high liquidity assets such as US Treasury bonds, and the rate of return was very low.

Although China's external net assets rank second in the world, the accumulated net loss of international income over the past 2008-2012 years is more than 700 billion US dollars.

The reason is that China's external assets return rate is much lower than the cost of external debt.

Third, security concerns.

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