We Should Take A Rational Attitude Towards Zheng Cotton'S Decline.

< p > < strong > global cotton is still increasing storage cycle < /strong > /p >

< p > USDA7 cotton > a href= "http:// www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > supply and demand report < /a > shows that 2014/2015's global end inventory has increased 645 thousand tons to 23 million 30 thousand tons, and the inventory consumption ratio is 94.92%.

The end of global cotton inventory showed an overall trend of increase, and the inventory consumption ratio was 39%.

Relevant data showed that US cotton production increased by 326 thousand tons to 3 million 590 thousand tons, exports increased by 109 thousand tons to 2 million 220 thousand tons, ending stocks increased by 196 thousand tons to 1 million 130 thousand tons, cotton production in India dropped 109 thousand tons to 6 million 90 thousand tons, exports dropped from 44 thousand tons to 1 million 197 thousand tons, cotton production in China was 6 million 420 thousand tons, consumption was reduced by 1 million 197 thousand tons to 1 million 197 thousand tons, end stocks rose to tons of tons; India due to El Nino phenomenon caused by seasonal wind and rain postponed, cotton production change needs to focus on.

Overall, global cotton is still in an increase in inventory cycle, and inventory has long suppressed prices.

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< p > a href= "http://? www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" at home and abroad > cotton price < /a > narrowing < /p >

< p > it is understood that storage in the past three years has resulted in limited domestic spot cotton resources available for circulation, so the spot market mainstream prices are mainly selling and selling.

While analyzing the difference of cotton price between domestic and foreign countries, the price difference between futures and domestic market has been drawn by comparing the price difference of domestic and foreign cotton.

From 2012 onwards, the price difference between the two was between 9000 and 10000 yuan / ton; from 2013, the price difference between the two was between 7000 and 9000 yuan / ton; from this year, the price difference between the two people quickly fell below 7000 yuan / ton, the lowest to 3000 yuan / ton.

Since the beginning of May, the ICE cotton contract in December has fallen by about 20%, while Zheng cotton's January contract has dropped by about 12%, so the two spreads have increased slightly in the short term.

In July 11th, under the sliding tax, the price difference between Zheng cotton's January contract and ICE cotton December was only 800 yuan / ton.

In short, the recent narrowing of cotton prices between inside and outside is a support for Zheng cotton.

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< p > < strong > < a > href= > http:// > www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp > cotton > /a > Industrial and commercial inventory low > /strong > /p >

< p > up to July 11th, cotton throwing and storage totaled 2 million 160 thousand tons, and daily turnover continued to shrink, and turnover remained at a low level of 10%.

The main reason for the low volume of cotton turnover is the "real and future" cotton price gap, which makes the cotton producers look weak.

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< p > tracking industrial and commercial inventory data of China cotton information network, it is known that starting from this year, domestic cotton textile business and business inventories are decreasing month by month, and inventory level is much lower than the same period in previous years.

For example, in May, domestic cotton textile business and business inventories totaled about 1 million 190 thousand tons, significantly lower than the inventory level in the past six years.

At present, domestic cotton consumption is estimated at 500 thousand to 600 thousand tons, and there is no shortage of cotton supply before the new cotton market comes into large numbers.

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< p > overall, because of the withdrawal of China's purchasing and storage policy this year, the global cotton competition for sale in China's cotton consumption market, cotton fell sharply, but the recent basic situation or the cotton price has stopped.

The United States as the largest cotton exporter, the price goes down first, and bad profits are released in large quantities.

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< p > ZHENG cotton fell to 14000 yuan / ton integer mark, considering the difference between inside and outside cotton price reduction and short term cotton supply shortage in the coming month.

Therefore, recent fundamentals do not support excessive overlooking of Zheng cotton.

At the same time, because the direct subsidy policy has not yet been clear, excessive cotton making is facing great policy risks. Therefore, we should hold a rational attitude towards the decline of Zheng cotton.

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