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MEG: When Will The Wind Go Up?

2014/7/15 21:29:00 24

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in the first half of 2014, the trend of "a href=" http:// "www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > MEG < /a > although it was still dragged down by the tank area inventory and the slowdown of polyester production slowed down, there was a downward process of oscillation, but after entering May, the rebound of the strong trend of PTA and the sharp fall of its inventory began to rebound.

In terms of price, the average price of MEG in the first half of the year was 6972.5 yuan / ton, 823.1 yuan / ton lower than the average price in the first half of last year, and the average import price was 947 US dollars / ton, down 97.9 US dollars / ton compared with the first half of last year.

The high point of the internal disk appeared at the end of June at 7580 yuan / ton (near the beginning of this price), the lowest point was 6470 yuan / ton at the end of February, and the external market high point occurred two times at the beginning of 1030 US dollars / ton, one at the end of February and the other in the middle of May, all at 880 US dollars / ton.

This jump market inside and outside the plate can be described as a feature of this year's MEG market.

The difference between the high and low price of the internal and external markets is 14.5%.

in the first half of the year, first decline then rise to /p >.

first quarter, PX- < a href= "http:// www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > PTA < /a > quotes in the whole year < a href= "http://" > "supply >" expansion expectations, under the continuous downturn, the center of gravity all the way down.

At the same time, due to the poor profitability of polyester in the second half of last year, there was unprecedented large-scale parking repair behavior in polyester factories during 1~2 months, and the highest production capacity in the unit time exceeded 7 million tons.

Affected by this, coupled with its increasing storage capacity in the tank farm, MEG's center of gravity continued to fall and reached the lowest level in the first half of February.

In the late March, as the PTA plant launched a large-scale parking repair behavior, MEG benefited from PTA out of ten Lian Yang. By the end of March, the centre of gravity of cargo returned to 950 US dollars / ton, and the spot price of the internal disk rose to 6900 yuan / ton ~7000 yuan / ton.

two quarter, the tank area inventory remained at a high level of oscillation, plus the PTA center of gravity fell again, the MEG market weakened again.

In mid May, the dollar disk touched the lows in the first half of the year, but fortunately in late May, PTA's plunge into the embarrassing situation of "flour is more expensive than bread" because of PX's one-day jump.

Affected by this, the three big PTA supply giants jointly reduced production, and at the beginning of June, the PTA price began to retaliate with the polyester factory's influence on the new system's settlement mode (costing with the cost) for the second half year contract.

After the MEG market was boosted, with the influence of Yaxin summit and other factors, the MEG tank area inventory dropped sharply, and the cumulative decline in the two consecutive weeks was over 100 thousand tons to 900 thousand tons. MEG took a lift price, and the internal market rushed to the half year high point, and the US dollar disk also approached the first half of the year.

In the first half of this year, MEG futures continued to rise at a monthly rate of 50 yuan / tonne.

productivity growth will speed up

in the first half of 2014, two sets of MEG installations were put into operation in China. One of them was the Pengzhou ethylene production plant of MEG, which was put into operation in March 12th. Another set of Sinopec Hubei fertilizer syngas MEG production plant was put into operation in early March. It is also the first set of synthetic gas MEG production plant in China.

as of the end of June, the domestic MEG production capacity was 5 million 610 thousand tons / year, the cumulative output in the first half of the year was about 1 million 795 thousand tons (including coal and methanol and syngas), an increase of 18 thousand tons compared with last year, an increase of only 1%.

In the second half of this year, there will be several sets of coal and Fujian refinery and a set of ethylene MEG plant will be put into operation, the capacity growth rate will be significantly larger than last year.

however, in the first half of the year, the operating rate of the domestic ethylene MEG plant decreased significantly. However, the output of the MTO plant was relatively stable, so the overall supply increased slightly compared with last year.

In the first half of this year, the MEG tank area inventory did not become a direct factor in the drag market. It may also be related to the control of domestic MEG suppliers in terms of output.

import dependence is still high,

In the month of P > 1~5, the total import volume of MEG was 3 million 658 thousand tons, up 141 thousand and 200 tons over the same period last year, and the average import declaration price was 989 US dollars / ton, down 114 US dollars / ton compared with the same period last year.

Among them, the volume of imports increased by 940 thousand tons in January, and then maintained 650 thousand tons ~70 million tons per month.

In the first half of the year, MEG's overall import dependency still reached about 70%.

Saudi Arabia and Taiwan, China are still the two main players in the main import area of MEG from P months to 1~5.

Moreover, the number of imports from these two regions has increased over the same period last year as Saudi Arabia's several large production facilities and the South Asian production facilities in Taiwan, China are relatively stable.

At the same time, because of the overhaul of many sets of MEG installations in the first half of last year, these units are stable production this year, so the volume of imports from the United States has increased by nearly 100 thousand tons compared with the same period last year.

In addition, the volume of imports from Iran has dropped markedly this year.

inventory remained high

the decline of polyester production in the first half of this year is very obvious.

Due to the large overhaul in the early spring festival, and in June, the polyester factories launched a game for PTA suppliers to change the contract pricing model.

Although the cash flow situation improved significantly after March, the aggregate operating rate during the 3~5 months has been maintained at 80%, but the output in the first half is only 15 million 689 thousand tons, and the output growth is only 2.2% higher than that in the same period last year. Therefore, even though the output of the first half of the year MEG has been growing at a relatively small speed, the total supply surplus in the first half of this year has been 887 thousand tons, up 24 thousand tons compared with the first half of last year.

After the entry of P > February, the main storage area in East China increased to more than 1 million 100 thousand tons. However, due to the relatively high position of polyester start-up load in the month of 3~6 (especially in April and May), the storage of MEG tank area slipped to less than 1 million tons in late May.

Although the 1 million ton tank area inventory is not a real high position, and with the current digestion ability of the polyester market, the inventory can be digested in one month, but if there is no large-scale maintenance in the second half of this year, this part of stock will always be like Damour's sword, hanging on the head of the market operator.

profits decreased significantly .

the current ethylene MEG is no longer the focus of the domestic market's future development. The main reason is that the supply gap of ethylene still exists in China. From the profitability of ethylene MEG, we can see that the MEG production profit of the traditional preparation method has been in a deficit state in the first half of this year.

Therefore, in the future, the investment and construction of coal and methanol to MEG will further increase in China, so as to reduce the production cost of MEG in China.

The profit margin of MEG in the first half of the year is much lower than before. In the environment of high oil price and domestic market liquidity, some Asian MEG devices may undergo a new round of centralized overhaul this year.

What we need to be vigilant at present is the joint influence of the change of PX-PTA industry chain on MEG cost.

forecast trend is not optimistic .

in the second half of the year, there are still several new MEG production capacity to be put into the market, but most of them are mainly made of coal plant. In the aspect of Asian device dynamics, the South Asian plant has cut down production plan in 8~12 month, and the Saudi plant will also arrange maintenance. If the Xincheng new device fails to go into operation on schedule, there may be a small gap in the Asian MEG market in the second half of the year.

in the first half of the year, the new capacity of polyester can still reach more than 3 million tons, but the growth rate of production is very slow.

Compared with last year's production rate of polyester 6%~7%, the situation in the second half of this year is not optimistic. Although there are still more than 2 million tons of new capacity waiting to be launched, the new capacity that will be released will be up and down millions of tons.

The supply in the upper half of the second half is always a psychological expectation.

Therefore, under such circumstances, the possibility of rapid amplification of polyester production is very small, so the support power provided by demand is not strong.

MEG industry still needs to rely on upstream market changes to adjust production plans.