Long Staple Cotton: Far Month Quotes Fell Sharply

Recently, large and medium-sized cotton textile enterprises in Jiangsu, Shandong, Henan, Hebei and other places have reflected that the supply of long staple cotton has been declining gradually since late June (the import of American Pima and Egypt's textiles are concentrated in the hands of several large foreign and importers). In addition, cotton producers and middleman cotton stocks are in relatively low positions (according to some agencies' survey, the average length of long staple cotton stock is about 7-10 days), and the price of cotton yarn market is relatively stable with the price of cotton futures and spot prices falling relative to the domestic and foreign cotton futures market prices. Compared with 5 and June, the cotton mill's profit is relatively stable. The polarization phenomenon of the proportion of small and medium sized cotton mills has continued to increase, "C40S" and "Gao Peisha"'s production and demand have been gradually warming up. Therefore, the long staple cotton market is now in the reverse market of "inquiry volume increasing and transaction price continuing to fall".

July 22-25, the mainland market Xinjiang long staple cotton 137, 237, 336 of the quotations concentrated in 29300-29500 yuan / ton, 28500-28700 yuan / ton, 27500-27700 yuan / ton, compared with the second half of June fell 300-500 yuan / ton, while the United States SJV PIMA, Egypt, Ji Sha 88 of the port net weight pick up price has also been reduced to 200-300 yuan / ton. In July 25th, traders from three places in Qingdao, Zhangjiagang and Shanghai quoted 29800-30200 yuan / ton and 28800-29000 yuan / ton. If considering the factors such as net settlement, LC90 days and good consistency, the difference between the inner and outer long staple cotton will be expanded to 1000 yuan / ton, and the competitiveness of American Pima cotton will be slippery.

July 26th Prompt shipment The GC 2-2-48 of the year 2013 (with a maximum of 20% of 46 length) is quoted at G5 200.5-201 cents / lb (within two weeks after signing the L / C, and three weeks after the opening of the L / C). If the goods are delayed, the seller will charge the buyer at the rate of 0.2 cents per pound per week. Warehousing charges And insurance); in August, the GC1-1-48 (with a maximum length of 20% of 46) and GC2-2-48 (up to 20% of 46 length) were quoted at 204-204.5 cents / lb and 203-203.5 cents / lbs; SJV PIMA RECAP PLS4, SJV PIMA RECAP were quoted at 4-5 cents / pound, 183-184 cents per pound, and the overall quotation was 4-5 cents lower than that in early July. The 10/11/12 month's GC1-1-48 and GC2-2-48 quotations were concentrated at 210-210.5 cents / lb, 209-209.5 cents / lbs (ginning factory batch shipment, except for the length of the other HVI indicators allowing 5% tolerance), lower than 1-1.5 in the first half of July, 1-1.5 / lb, and the cargo declines were significantly lower than the spot; some importers said that The main reason for the strong import prices of long staple cotton in 2014/15 is that the planting area of Pima cotton in the United States and Israel has declined a lot in the year 2014. The demand for bottoming of long staple cotton in China, India, Indonesia, Bangladesh and other countries in 2014/15 has increased. On 24-25 July, the US mid long velvet spot price (10/11/12 shipping date): SJV ACALA SG SM 1 5/32, GC21-2 38 and SJV ACALA RG SM RG, the middle and long staple quotes are respectively cent / pound, cent / pound and 115-116 cents / pound, the quotations are down 8-10 cents / pound compared with the first half of July, which is basically the same as that of the far moon contract and the fine cotton cotton spot.

According to the survey, by the 2013 year's international and domestic long staple cotton market's "high opening and low walking", the importers and middlemen of the US PIMA, Egypt, Qingdao, Shanghai and Jiangsu have lost a lot of money. Several traders in Changzhou, Shanghai, and Changzhou said that the RMB quotations of SJV PIMA dropped from 29500-30000 yuan / ton to 34000-34500 yuan / ton in 2014 and 11-12 months. The decline is more than 4000 yuan / ton, considering that the delivery time of the long staple cotton contract is generally longer, the time taken by traders to occupy the capital and the exporters are mostly close to the upper limit of the contract allowable loss. Therefore, some foreign businessmen estimate that from January 2014 to today, the loss of Chinese traders with long staple cotton should be at least 1500 yuan / ton. Two importers from Changzhou and Nantong in Jiangsu indicated that there were about 500 tons of American Pima cotton in Qingdao, Zhangjiagang and Ningbo port in late 7. The long staple cotton at the spot and in August were also being "pre sold". The buyers of a single order exceeding 5 cabinets should make a profit of 300 yuan / ton, and strive to empty the stock before the new cotton sale in October. A large part of the importers of long staple cotton believe that the output of Xinjiang will increase by 30%-40% in 2014/15. In addition, cotton spinning mills will use high-grade Australian cotton, Brazil cotton, India cotton MCU5 and American long velvet to replace cotton with long staple cotton. Therefore, in 2014, the desire to enter the field of long staple cotton imports is relatively low, and is worried about repeating the market of 2013/14 long staple cotton.

Some businesses consider short-term impact. Long-staple cotton Sales factors include: first and 8-10 month orders are mainly medium and heavy fabrics and fabrics. The demand for low branch combs, low branches and high spun yarn is better than that of high count combed high grade yarns. Secondly, the passive appreciation of RMB and the cost of imported long staple cotton have been reduced. Compared with other countries, the price advantage of long staple cotton at home and abroad has been gradually reflected and expanded. Thirdly, the NDRC held a meeting recently. It is clear that the quota will be further controlled. In addition, the customs will begin to crack down on the false processing trade. China's imports are expected to decline again. The lack of import quotas will become an important obstacle to enter the Chinese market, such as the American cotton Pima and Egypt's textile. In April and 2014, the growing area of staple cotton in the main producing countries of China, Egypt, India and other long staple cotton (except the United States) increased considerably. In addition to the steady demand of India enterprises for long staple cotton production, production and sales of 60S combed yarn, including China, Pakistan and Vietnam, continued to shrink.

For the trend of long staple cotton in the international market before the end of August, most foreign businessmen and traders think there is little hope of bottoming out. However, taking into account the Chinese government's 19800 yuan / ton Xinjiang cotton direct subsidy "target price" and cotton textile enterprises' general long staple cotton stocks have dropped below the "lifeline", and in July, China, the United States, Europe and other manufacturing and service industries PMI value has been warming up and so on, the long staple cotton market will be narrowed. Domestic local production 137, the United States SJV PIMA two grade cotton stabilization price or around 28500 yuan / ton, long staple cotton or more fine cotton down ahead and rebound.