Whether The Policy Game Can Be Broken Again Depends On 2300 Factors.

< p > here the world is < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/" target= "_blank" > clothing < /a > a href= "http://www.91se91.com/" target= "http://www.91se91.com/" > shoes "< hat" net to the small editor to introduce the policy game again, whether or not to break 2300 depends on one factor.

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The Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities continued to rush upward on Monday, P, and the market hit a new high, driven by financial and non-ferrous metals (3812.93, -10.030, -0.26%).

In the next market, if the index can reach 2300 points successfully, the real estate sector will become a key factor.

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< p > = = = reading guidance = = = < /p >.

< p > [market analysis] whether or not to break 2300 depends on one factor. The market is going to challenge 2250 points, /p.

"P" [institutional strategy] Shenyang Wanguo: the game of policy is rising again: Guotai Junan: what are the new funds looking for? < /p >

< p > whether or not to break 2300 depends on one factor < /p >.

< p > on Monday, Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities continued to rush upward, and the market hit a new high with the help of the financial and non-ferrous metals sector.

387.00,0.000,0.00% refers to (1436.40,7.660,0.54%) the number of outstanding performance today, a record high since the rebound.

Most of the stocks at the forefront of the increase are small and medium sized boards (721.00,0.000,0.00%) and gem, and the market is again showing the characteristics of diversification of subjects.

From the signs of the disk, strong shock consolidation will be the main thrust of the recent market trend.

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< p > < strong > 1.

Property has become a key factor.

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"P" in the next segment of the market, the index will be successful to reach 2300 points, the real estate sector will be a key factor.

Today, the National Bureau of statistics released the data of real estate sales in July.

There were 64 cities in the whole country in July, and housing prices fell in the same period, of which Beijing fell for the first time in recent years.

The performance of real estate listed companies is closely related to real estate prices. Nowadays, housing prices are falling in many places. Whether the real estate listed companies can continue to achieve profit growth will form a relatively large variable.

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< p > although many housing prices are down, the leading real estate listed companies can still make up the losses from the quantity by pushing the market.

From this point, the industry leader in the central area is more favorable.

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< p > in addition, there is another advantage in the decline of the housing price than that in the policy. This is actually beneficial to the real estate sector.

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< p > the real estate sector involves a lot of industries, involving banks, building materials and so on.

The performance of the real estate sector determines to a large extent whether the market can continue to break through.

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< p > < strong > two.

Consumption is expected to become a bright spot.

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< p > with the stock index hitting the new high this year, it is more and more important to grasp the rhythm of the market hot spots. For the recent market, the consumer sector is expected to become a bright spot.

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< p > recently, McDonald's and other Western fast food have encountered a relatively large supply chain crisis since entering the country. Under the trend of crisis, the position of Western fast food is constantly challenged.

Whether supply chain competition or market share competition, listed companies will have obvious advantages over other companies.

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< p > besides, the traditional festivals such as national day and Mid Autumn Festival are already approaching, which will play a very good role in stimulating consumption.

The national day and the mid autumn festival itself also provide a good holiday time. It is also a good opportunity for the big stocks such as aviation and tourism (6122.05,27.620,0.45%).

(Codd investment) < /p >

< p > < strong > < a > href= > http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp > > market > /a > will challenge 2250 points: /strong > /p >

< p > the market continues the trend of strong and constant strength. After sustained shocks for nearly two weeks above 2200 points, the stock index continued to take the upper hand on Monday, and the 2250 point of the sword pointed to a strong pressure.

On the Japanese K-line chart, nearly two weeks' sidewalk finishing platform is making a breakthrough today, which is going to challenge the strong pressure of 2250 points.

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The strong point of < p > 2250 points and one line comes from the two corresponding highs of 2013 September and December 2013.

As the stock index continues to go up, it will soon face the strong selling of the relatively high position of the early stage.

At the same time, the trend of today's stock index is higher, although the volume below has been magnified, but the overall capacity has not exceeded the average line, indicating that there is a certain upward resistance in the short term.

Under the strong pressure of 2250 points and one line, there is still a certain degree of difficulty for the stock index to break through.

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< p > through the disk, the hot topics in the market are continuously active.

Small and medium-sized 5206.46,18.570,0.36% index and gem index performance is relatively strong, basically confirms the author said that the current market belongs to the blue chip set up, the theme of the hot stage.

Among today's plates, the top two cities are Internet, hotel catering, media entertainment, gambling concepts, online games and so on.

And the less expensive ones are insurance, banking, Shanghai 50 (1608.96, -4.170, -0.26%) and other tier blue chips.

The performance of this market is obviously more balanced, especially in the current market as a whole, maintaining a good money making atmosphere and investment atmosphere. Basically, it is the trend of all over the world.

In terms of stocks, today's trading limit has increased significantly compared to last Friday, reaching more than 40 today. A good money making atmosphere will help to further strengthen the stock index.

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< p > at the same time, at present, the fundamentals of the market are constantly improving.

For example, the market expects the stock market to have more favorable policies in the future, including the entry of insurance pension funds, the further expansion of QFII and RQFII, the reduction of tax and fee in market pactions, the adjustment of the rate of fluctuation and the reform of T+0 trading system and so on.

At the same time, the major reforms such as the Shanghai and Hong Kong links, registration system reform and other major reforms are expected to continue to push the stock index stronger in the post market period.

In particular, when the valuation advantages of large blue chips and the market investment atmosphere have been stirred up, it is worth looking forward to the challenge of 2250 points and front-line challenges.

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< p > > therefore, in the short term, < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_s.asp" > market < /a > has better investment opportunities. It is recommended to continue holding shares in operation, waiting for market challenges to successfully suppress 2250 points and front-line positions, and keeping the positions at about 8 per cent. It is suggested that attention should be paid to the rotation opportunities of popular topics such as military industry, new energy (1321, -0.560, -0.04%) and medicine.

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< p > < strong > Shenyin Wanguo: the game of policy revival < /strong > < /p >

Last week, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen composite index, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (2374.77,0.210,0.01%), SME board (721.00,0.000,0.00%) and gem (387.00,0.000,0.00%) composite index rose by 1.47%, 1.23%, 1.27%, 2.58% and 2.06% respectively.

The two cities have a turnover of 1 trillion and 480 billion yuan, a 4.3% increase in the ring ratio.

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< p > last week, the market continued to be high and volatile. We still believe that the uplink logic has not yet been destroyed, but the power has been weakened. The breakthrough of the 2250 point needs to fully shake up the turnover and coordinate with the quantity.

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< p > economic data is not as good as expected, and the market is playing the game again.

1) the data in July, whether trade or growth, or financial currencies, are mostly lower than those that the market has already lowered, especially in terms of generating capacity, real estate (local policies have been relaxing), imports and Finance (reflecting the weakness of domestic demand), and the rebound since late June has been largely driven by economic data. Although the data in July are seasonally disturbed by seasonal factors, they can no longer become the driving force in the market.

2) the economic micro improvement can not be falsified. In the first half of August, the comprehensive index of Shen Wan (1910.82, -0.240, -0.01%) rose significantly. It was concerned about the initial value of HSBC PMI next week. We still think it might be a little longer or not to worry about the economy in the near future. However, we still believe that there may be a long time from the overall economic fundamentals to promote the huge market (up or down).3. The greater thrust or the policy is much lower than expected credit data. After the market is released, the market is callback, but it soon pulls up, largely because the market is back to the bad data and the logic of the policy force, and the interest rate cut is expected to rise again.

Short term policy is expected to be falsified, but vigilance is expected to be too risky.

4) during the pition period, the market has experienced a substantial systemic risk in the first half, but the situation is gradually improving. However, the confidence is seriously insufficient. Entering the bottoming stage of repeated trial, contradiction and hope, there is no need to be pessimistic downwards, and there is no sustained motive force upward.

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< p > breakthroughs need to be changed.

1) although after two weeks of concussion, but on the one hand, 10% rise from the low point, on the other hand, 2200 points above the paction intensive area, profit and dissolve the pressure to digest.

2) since the 3478 point, the upper orbit of the drop channel has been around 2250, plus the two highs of 2270 and 2260 in the 13 years of September and December. We think that the resistance of the 2250-2300 point interval is larger, and the resistance has been blocked at 2230 points recently.

3) the external stock market has declined, and the risk preference has dropped. However, Shanghai and Hong Kong still expect higher returns, and the market also has a round effect to maintain a high level of activity.

4) there is still no breakthrough in the last week's volume. If we want to get out of the board and go up the steps again, we need to fully shake up the handover and constantly absorb the resistance.

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< p > Shanghai Composite Index (2245.33,5.860,0.26%) core fluctuation interval judgement (21802280) (Shen Yinwanguo) < /p >

< p > < strong > Guotai Junan: what are the new funds looking for? < /strong > < /p >

< p > A stock market has so far experienced two stages: high dividend drive and trial growth.

Guotai Junan strategic group believes that the current round of market led by real estate, whether the real estate policy and sales elasticity can continue to improve, to a large extent determines the style conversion and market continuity of the time cycle.

In June 15th, we reported "seeing the red mountain everywhere: looking at the new normal dividend" and reiterated on July 27th: "the two turning points" reaffirmed that the loose bonus of liquidity will provide sufficient support and space for the rebound of the A share market.

Under such a rebound and space, the specific deduction of the market is influenced by the following three key variables.

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< p > first, improving the sustainability of real estate policies and restoring the resilience of sales volume.

Judging from the data of 40 cities, the annual estimate is basically the same as 2013.

On the one hand, there is still a lot of supply in the second half of the year. On the other hand, it is estimated that real estate prices will continue downward.

Sales will continue to improve in the second half of this year.

In addition, in August 1st, the Sichuan government granted a 3% financial subsidy to bank mortgage loans, which would also improve market expectations for real estate sales.

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< p > Second, the cost of entity financing is improved.

In August 1st, the central bank announced the implementation of the two quarter monetary policy report, and once again emphasized the policy direction of macro stability and micro policy.

According to the data, the financing cost of non-financial enterprises has dropped to 6.96%, which is 0.22 percentage points lower than that in March.

In addition, the interest rate of the open market policy is also declining, and the repo rate in July 31st has fallen by 10 basis points.

We believe that a series of policy adjustments are still strengthening the market's expectation of sustained positive support for monetary policy.

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< p > Third, market expectation adjustment and game speed.

During the recent roadshow, we have observed that most organizations have limited participation in the current market, which also forms the space for further pformation of market style.

We believe that the "resilience" of the current growth stocks is still not available.

In the short term, half year performance is less than expected, and it is one of the risks.

However, due to the heavy market allocation of growth stocks, the elasticity of this sector is hard to recover in the short term.

As for the undervalued plate, the stock position is the main body, and the market mainstream expectation is relatively pessimistic. This also forms the source of elasticity and the space for rebound.

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< p > new energy (1320.80, -0.760, -0.06%) automobile and state-owned enterprise reform is the theme of the current a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_cj.asp" > capital < /a >, which will form a leading market.

The recent top-down policy theme activity has been rising, and the central government's important progress in anti-corruption has made the market reform expected to further improve.

The theme of new energy vehicle under the reform of state owned enterprises and the national energy strategy is not only consistent with the market style of the current blue chip market, but also the direction of policy intensive publication, which meets the current requirements of capital expectations and will become the main driving force for the next stage of the market.

In the new energy vehicle, we are optimistic about the flexible charging piles and the large lithium-ion battery industry chain with basic elasticity, and the reform of state-owned enterprises is expected to make new breakthroughs in the area through the trend of anti-corruption.

(Guotai Junan) < /p >

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