Analysis Report On Development Situation Of Chemical Fiber Industry In 2014

In the "Twentieth China International Chemical fiber conference" just concluded, the Chinese chemical fiber industry has made a clear-cut proposal to "innovate and industrial chain cooperation to drive the sustainable development of chemical fiber industry" theme, pointing out the direction of exploration for the confused industry.

In the first half of this year, the chemical fiber industry has continued its low growth since 2013, but the trend of decline in output growth has been basically stable.

1~6 months, chemical fiber production 21 million 371 thousand tons, an increase of 7.52% over the same period, an increase of 1.68 percentage points over the same period last year.

Quality and efficiency.

1~6 months, the chemical fiber industry realized a total profit of 9 billion 556 million yuan, an increase of 19.53% over the previous year, an increase of 14.63 percentage points over the first quarter of 4.9%, indicating that the industrial efficiency of the two quarter has improved significantly compared with the first quarter.

The industry lost 24.47%, down 0.57 percentage points from the same period last year, but the deficit of the deficit companies increased by 17.43% over the same period last year.

In the past ten years, the profit rate of chemical fiber industry fluctuated greatly, the highest value was 7.16% in 2010, but only 2.81% in the first half of this year. It also failed to reach the average level in ten years.

New capacity.

Chemical fiber production capacity is still in the stage of inertia growth. Preliminary statistics show that the polyester production capacity in the first half of this year is 2 million 620 thousand tons. In the second half of this year, there are still about 2000000 tons of polyester polyester project planned to be put into operation. However, according to market conditions, some devices may be postponed into operation in 2015, and the actual production may be less than 2 million tons.

Due to the impact of market sluggishness and inertia growth of production capacity, the main sub sectors started to run inadequate, and the starting rate of polyester filament during the Spring Festival fell to below 50%. With the recovery of downstream demand, the average operating rate reached more than 80% from late April to early May. The spandex industry continued to maintain high load operation, and the starting rate of viscose filament and viscose filament was basically 80%, and polyester staple and nylon industries were relatively poor.

In the first half of the year, due to the sharp rise in printing and dyeing costs, the sales of chemical fiber and colored fibers were smooth, especially the profit margins of recycled colored filament were huge.

Coupled with increasingly stringent environmental protection requirements, the printing and dyeing industry has great influence, but it breeds new opportunities for chemical fiber color silk.

Analysis of the status and future of China's chemical fiber industry, Duan Xiaoping, President of China Chemical Fiber Association, pointed out that in the past 20 years, the world fiber processing volume increased by 3.02% annually, the average annual growth of China was 9.28%, and the average annual growth of chemical fiber was 11.96%, much higher than that of the whole world.

With the growth of world economy and the increase of per capita fiber consumption, the global fiber processing volume will continue to grow. The annual average growth rate is expected to be 2.8% to 3%. The increase will mostly come from chemical fiber. China's growth rate will continue to be higher than the global average. However, the rate of increase will be greatly reduced due to technical reasons and with the adjustment of the global division of labor and the decline of China's economy.

But Xiaoping emphasized the three points that must be emphasized: first, we are not so pessimistic about the prospects of the industry, still optimistic about the future growth of our chemical fiber industry; second, because of the adjustment of the global division of labor, China's speed reduction is a foregone conclusion. Chinese entrepreneurs are forced to consider the global layout. "For the chemical fiber industry, the future global increment can be done by the Chinese, but not necessarily in China."

Third, in the next three years, China will not have to add new devices, but only rely on the equipment being built and the operating rate of the existing equipment to increase, so that it will meet 5.5% of the demand growth. The significance of this figure to the global chemical fiber is that China's chemical fiber occupies 68% of the world's share. The growth of 5.5% of China's chemical fiber engine can pull the growth of the global chemical fiber 3.7%.

And for

The question of division of labor has fully taken account of the Southeast Asian countries' occupation of China's share of the world's main export markets and the profit driven nature of capital flowing towards the low cost of factor costs. Xiaoping believes that the pfer of the world's layout will be different from the last one. "Because China's huge human mouth and market decide that China's textiles and clothing can not rely on any foreign country to produce, China's next step is to consider the layout rather than the pfer, not all of it is produced in China."

As for the domestic living environment, Xiaoping pointed out that although China's demographic dividend and land dividend advantage are weakening along with the change of economic development mode and factor structure, we can hope that the next step will be to make dividends to deepen reform and promote the vitality of the economy.

Xiaoping saw the opportunities brought about by the reform of government functions.

He thinks two points are very important: first, the government's reform of GDP doctrine.

Assessment mode, which is very important to chemical fiber, "because chemical fiber has a characteristic, low input and high output, the investment of 500 million yuan can often bring about 2000000000 yuan sales revenue and contribute greatly to local GDP, so our local government is particularly keen on developing chemical fiber.

If there is no impulse from the government, then the government will not be able to dry chemical fiber under the pressure of the government, which will be very beneficial for our industry.

The second is to increase the decisive role of the market in the allocation of resources. "When our enterprises develop in the field of chemical fiber to a certain scale and do not know which way to go, does it mean that our enterprises can enter the petrochemical industry and the PX industry? Because the original field is monopolized, and the capital market has not been released, which makes the surplus capital of the chemical fiber industry have no way out, only to make the industry bigger and become an unhealthy state."

Xiaoping hoped that the parties could appeal to the investment in this field as soon as possible.

Indeed, due to the serious imbalance between supply and demand of PX and PTA, the price of PTA in the first half of the year is chaotic; and PX's dependence on foreign countries as high as 65% makes us completely lose the right to speak in this field.

From the "85" period provided by Xiaoping to the "11th Five-Year" period, the construction scale and processing cost of conventional fibers can be seen.

The marginal effect of progress in cost control and scale efficiency is decreasing. Upgrading of conventional fiber production capacity is, in a sense, another waste of social resources.

Therefore, vigorously developing bio based fibers, high-performance fibers and differentiated fibers will become an important way for China's chemical fiber industry to break through in terms of industrial structure and product mix adjustment.

On the basis of independent research and development, Tangshan Sanyou group has launched a new bamboo fiber, bamboo Dyer, which is made of high quality bamboo pulp and made by modal process. It has been combined with downstream manufacturers, and has launched underwear oriented products such as underwear, socks and garments. Yibin Sili group, which started producing viscose filament yarn in 1984, is based on bio based fibers, and has introduced viscose staple fibers (Imitation cotton products), silkworm chrysalis protein, cashmere protein and other high value-added new fibers, trying to lead the market in the new market trend.

A group of statistical data from China Chemical Fiber Association shows that: the enterprise has strengthened the development of differential fiber modification and high-end product development, such as the new generation of polyester (cotton imitation) fiber, the new generation of simulation (functional) fiber, the difference fiber of raw liquor colored fiber, bamboo pulp fiber, new solvent method cellulose fiber and other rapid development. In 2013, the differential rate of chemical fiber products reached 55%, the self-sufficiency rate of chemical fiber for high-grade fabrics and products reached 82%, and the proportion of industrial chemical fiber reached 27.8%.

Bio based fiber: the establishment of China's bio based protein fiber technology innovation strategy alliance, China's bio based polyamide fiber technology innovation strategic alliance, the formation of chitosan fiber, PDT fiber, bamboo pulp fiber and protein fiber as the representative of bio based fiber independent knowledge production rights, the industry has an international level.

In recent years, the field of high performance chemical fiber has been developing rapidly. With the acceleration of technological progress, a new round of strategic layout is being carried out in the world. Production efficiency has been continuously improved, the cost has been declining, the new products have obvious personalization, and the production of high-performance fibers has covered almost all kinds of products.

In 2013, the total capacity of domestic high-performance fibers reached 87 thousand tons, achieving a total export of 38 thousand tons, and the industry reached the international advanced level.

At present, it is developing towards the integration of structure and function, intellectualization of functional materials, integration of materials and devices, and green process of preparation and application.

Also pointed out that at present, the high-performance fiber represented by carbon fiber has entered a new stage in China. It is called the "three phase superposition": first, the bottleneck period, we have achieved industrialization and achieved the production and application of medium and low grade products in high-performance fibers, but we need to make breakthroughs in the medium and high grade, including breakthroughs in technology and market. Two, it is a painful period, especially carbon fiber. "Most of the carbon fiber production enterprises can not make profits, which is very fatal to the development of an enterprise. How long can our enterprises support?" third is the confusion period, and how to go next. But end Xiaoping.