Guotai Junan: Second Big Suspects In Bull Market

Guotai Junan issued a A share strategy report that the current bull market is denominator driven "reform cattle", which is similar to 1996-2000 years, not 06 or 07 years of bull market. We are impressed by the bull market in 06 or 07 years. However, it is observed that if the investors in the market operate according to the "cycle cattle" style in 06 or 07 years, they will have to wait for the profits of enterprises to rise, and the investment performance may be limited. But if we operate in accordance with the "cattle reform" style, understand that no risk interest rate will drop, and reform and enhance risk preference, there is no doubt that this year's performance is good.

Guotai Junan thinks that the four reasons of interest rate decline, policy easing, speed up reform and financial risk of bomb disposal have created a bull market in the 1996-2000 years of reform and transformation. According to the same framework, that is, the framework of transformation macro, transformation clock and transformation cattle, this round of Xiong Niu's evolution logic is also very clear, which is a very important way to predict Daniel market.

Guotai Junan listed 10 big conjectures of the second wave of Daniu City:

First, the reform entered the critical stage of landing in 2015 from the preparatory period of the 2014 plan. In 2014, a series of reform plans adopted at the 1-7 meeting of the central deep reorganization will gradually come to the ground, and the future theme is not lacking.

Two, the full easing cycle opens, and the future reduction of interest rates will gradually replace all sorts of dazzling directional easing tools.

Three, fiscal policy will be more relaxed in 2015 and may increase the deficit rate. Now 4 trillion and 800 billion of fiscal deposits lie on the books and interest rates. In the case of economic recession, we think this may be unscientific.

Four, fiscal and monetary double loose may make the RMB exchange rate face a certain pressure of depreciation, which is conducive to the improvement of terms of trade, but will increase the pressure of capital outflow. Considering the need for RMB internationalization and RMB going out, I suspect that the depreciation of the renminbi relative to the US dollar is slightly more than the rise in the euro, yen and emerging economies.

Five, if fiscal and monetary policies are in a relaxed cycle, then real estate sales in the first tier cities are expected to pick up, and real estate investment and prices will rise again. Because of high inventory and net population outflow, the housing market of the three or four tier cities continued to slump.

Six, go to the end of production capacity, next year, the traditional industries may merge and reorganize tide, the development and reform department may help.

Seven, the slowdown in economic growth slowed down, the tail risk of economic stall is gradually disappearing. In 2016-2017 years, it is expected to prove that the growth rate of the medium speed increase is the bottom of the shift, and the new 5% is better than the old 8%. There will be data diving in the first quarter of next year. After diving, real estate investment and GDP are going smoothly. The past 2010-2012 belong to the decline period of the shift of growth rate. We are afraid that the marginal benefit of enterprises will deteriorate. But from 2012 to now, the economy has declined slowly, and we are gradually adapting to the so called "new normal". If future investment in real estate, exports, consumption and infrastructure gradually enters " New normal goals "It is possible for us to identify the bottom of the medium and long term. I doubt that the real bottom will be in 2016-2017 years.

Eight, prices are likely to be released before and after the mid 2015. Deflation So as to usher in the dawn of corporate profits. If we can see three events, the possibility of future price deflation from the deflation zone is relatively large: first, the opening of the fiscal and monetary easing cycle; two, the rise in house prices; and three, the commodity prices bottomed out. We believe that inflation will not be too high in the future, mainly from deflation, and PPI has been negative for thirty-three consecutive months. PPI can get rid of negative growth and usher in the dawn of corporate earnings improvement.

Nine. price Getting rid of deflation means the end of the bond bull market. We are now in the bull market and the bull market in the bond market. In the coming half year, the stock market will hit second waves in Daniel City, the denominator will drive, and the molecules will touch the bottom. The first wave of Daniu city is the turning point of bear bull. Before 2400-2500 o'clock, the molecules went downwards, mainly from risk-free interest rate reduction, risk preference enhancement and denominator drive. The second wave bull market is denominator driven, and molecules touch the bottom. The third wave, if it is possible to get rid of deflation before and after the mid 2015 and usher in the dawn of corporate profits, will probably turn to molecular drive.

Ten, the most beneficial industries are brokers, real estate and insurance, but banks may play a dark horse. Interest rate market reform and the Fed's rate hike expectations will not go too far, the rate cut may be lower than everyone expected, but the drop may exceed expectations. As for the emerging industries, if the registration system is reported to the State Council in the next 1-2 months, the securities law will be amended in the middle of next year. The registration system reform can be carried out at the end of next year in early 2016. The emerging industries that represent the future will remain the target market if they maintain strong earnings growth.