The European Central Bank'S New Version Of QE Is Favorable For China'S Export

Pan Gongsheng, vice governor of the people's Bank of China, pointed out on the 23 day that the new QE policy of the European Central Bank plus the trend of normalization of quantitative easing policy in the US will further push the US dollar exchange rate to strengthen, which may bring downward pressure on the RMB to the US dollar exchange rate.

Pan Gongsheng made the above statement on the 23 day briefing of the State Council Information Office on the 2014 financial reform and the progress of supporting the progress of the real economy.

He said that the liquidity provided by the new QE policy of the ECB will undoubtedly have spillover effects.

The stronger US dollar will drive capital back to the US and enhance the uncertainty of cross-border capital flows across the globe.

He pointed out that Europe is China's most important trading partner. The launch of the new QE policy of the ECB will help boost the euro area economy, increase external demand and benefit China's exports, which is more positive and positive.

Pan Gongsheng introduced that this year's financial reform has five main contents: first, speed up the market-oriented reform of interest rates.

Timely introduction of large deposit certificates for enterprises and individuals, expanding the scope of financial institutions' liability products and market pricing, and strengthening the construction of the benchmark interest rate system for financial markets, and improving

And interest rate pmission mechanism.

At the same time, we should improve the interest rate regulation system of central banks, enhance the ability of central bank to control interest rates and the effectiveness of macroeconomic regulation and control.

Two, we should further improve the formation mechanism of RMB exchange rate marketization.

In 2014, a big step has been taken. This year, we will continue to increase the intensity of market supply and demand and enhance the flexibility of RMB exchange rate floating.

The three is to steadily promote convertibility of capital account.

It includes orderly raising the level of convertibility under individual capital, launching qualified pilot of domestic individual investors, establishing a foreign debt management system under macro Prudential framework, and improving the cross border capital flow monitoring system of unified nationwide network management.

Four is to promote

As soon as possible.

The five is to implement the reform plan of policy oriented financial institutions.

The reform plan of the Agricultural Development Bank has been approved by the State Council.

The reform plan of the State Development Bank and the import and export bank will also be approved by the central government and the State Council very soon.

At the same time, we will continue to encourage financial market innovation, improve the policy measures, regulatory framework and mechanism of Internet financial development, and improve the monitoring, early warning and disposal system of financial risks.

He said that there is a certain amount of government debt.

The hidden trouble is mainly due to the heavy debt burden of some local governments, and the strong dependence on land sales income. There are also some illegal financing and illegal use of government debt funds in some places.

The people's Bank of China will cooperate with the relevant departments to clean up the local government debt and establish a more standardized and pparent local government debt financing mechanism.

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This week the market was very volatile.

The reason is that it is affected by the management's disclosure of the two financial results. The reality is that the stock market index stocks rose earlier and accumulated a lot of profit taking. They concentrated on the stampede.

Technically, the correction of rising indicators can be understood as a quick pullback in the bull market.

Obviously, it is lack of basis to judge the logic of the rise of the brokerage stocks.

Because in the bull market, brokerage stocks are equivalent to a banknote printing machine, with only a few hundred million brokerage pactions per day, as well as proprietary, investment banking, new three boards and other innovative businesses, which are the most profitable businesses at present.

It is really unwise to short share securities now.

A series of policies launched last year changed the market's extremely pessimistic expectations of the economy, causing banks, real estate, insurance and other stocks to fall in a long period of time.

In this stage, the underestimation of traditional blue chips has attracted the attention of market funds and has become the focus of investment.

Blue chips began to pull up sharply in July last year because of the existence of valuation fixing and expected improvement factors, but most of them were driven by market funds.

For the future market, investors can focus on blue chips, but do not recommend catching up.

From the plate, some overcapacity industries, such as nonferrous metals, steel, cement and other sectors, in the long run, the space for growth is not as big as that of the consumer industry.

The cumulative increase in blue chip stock market is really huge. The high turnover rate is bound to increase the volatility of blue chips. It also shows that the market's concern for blue chips is much larger than that of small cap stocks. There are many reasons for it. On the one hand, the reform of state-owned enterprises has given these new big imaginations not good for big businesses. On the other hand, 50ETF options will be listed in February 9th, which will raise the concern of large cap stocks again.

If it is necessary to make a time measurement for this situation, February 9th may be an important node.

At present, the fundamentals of the economy have continued to improve. The growth of small and medium sized boards and gem has been limited due to the bull market in the past year, and individual sectors have been fully adjusted in the lifting of heavyweight stocks, and the market activity may continue to improve.

At the same time, under the impact of the two financial supervision, the future market may appear to be conducive to the style switching of small and medium value growth companies.

Gem and small and medium-sized board are the main victims of this round of market. Many investors have made no profit from the index, or "full warehouse" is the small cap investors.

The biggest change this week is that small and medium-sized stocks finally made * a pig on the draught.

In fact, in terms of investment alone, large cap stocks and small cap stocks are important. The important thing is that the value of your choice will be valuable.

In other words, large cap stocks are good and bad. Small cap stocks are good and bad. Gold will eventually shine.