Weak Export Trade Faces Pressure On Exports

The reasons for the decrease in import and export volume in January were analyzed, and the reduction in import volume was the main factor.

Since the second half of last year, investment in fixed assets has been low, industrial production has been weak, import demand for commodities has been shrinking and import pressure has been decreasing.

At the same time, global commodity prices plummeted, further lowering import value.

According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on 8, in January, the total value of China's imports and exports was 2 trillion and 90 billion yuan, down 10.8% from the same period last year.

The survey data released by the General Administration of Customs showed that in January this year, China's foreign trade export index was 38.6, down 1.5 compared with 12 last year.

This is the fourth consecutive month decline of the index, indicating that China's exports are still facing downward pressure in the first quarter of this year and the beginning of the two quarter.

Analysis of China in January

The reason for the decline in imports and exports is that the reduction in import volume is the main factor.

Since the second half of last year, investment in fixed assets has been low, industrial production has been weak, import demand for commodities has been shrinking and import pressure has been decreasing.

Meanwhile, the sharp decline in global commodity prices further lowered import values.

Customs statistics show that in January, except for the increase in soybean imports, the import volume of major commodities such as iron ore, coal, crude oil and refined oil decreased, while the prices of major imported commodities generally declined.

Analysts pointed out that the decline in import growth in January exceeded expectations, indicating weak domestic demand.

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The decline of growth is greater than that of exports, resulting in an increase in trade surplus, leading to an increase in net exports in GDP. This "declining trade surplus" deserves attention.

Yu Pingkang, an analyst at Huatai Securities, believes that import and export trade fell twice in January, and the trade surplus reached a record high.

As global economic demand slows down, countries are scrambling for easing policies, and the trade environment is not optimistic.

From a regional perspective, customs statistics show that in January, China's import and export trade with the United States and ASEAN was relatively good, and other regions were weakening.

Among them, the EU is China's largest trading partner, bilateral trade total value of 323 billion 10 million yuan, a decrease of 5.3%.

The United States is the second largest trading partner of our country, with a bilateral trade value of 300 billion 470 million yuan, an increase of 0.5%.

ASEAN is China's third largest trading partner with a bilateral trade value of 257 billion 140 million yuan, down 0.6%.

In addition, Sino Japanese bilateral trade totaled 140 billion 530 million yuan, down 17.3%.

Liu Xuezhi, a researcher at Bank of communications, said

Outside the "adverse wind", the weakening of traditional competitive advantage of our foreign trade is also an important reason for the low export.

Customs survey shows that in the first three quarters of last year, China's clothing and textiles and other 7 categories of traditional labor-intensive export products in the United States and Japan's market share declined by 0.8 and 2.8 percentage points respectively.

At the same time, some developed countries' investment in China's manufacturing industry has cooled down, and the actual utilization of foreign capital has decreased.

About half of China's foreign trade exports are created by foreign investment enterprises, and the decline in actual utilization of foreign capital will also form a medium-term constraint on exports.

Customs data show that in January, China's general trade exports were stable, imports fell deeper, processing trade exports were weak, and imports were relatively stable.

Among them, processing trade exports 404 billion 100 million yuan, down 11.7%; imports 221 billion 600 million yuan, down 7.5%, accounting for 25.8% of the total value of imports; processing trade surplus of 182 billion 500 million yuan, narrowed 16.3%.

In January, clothing, textiles, footwear, furniture, plastic products, bags, toys and 7 categories of labor-intensive products totaled 270 billion 80 million yuan, down 8.4%.

At the National Customs Commissioner's meeting held recently, the director general of customs and Excise Department said that China's exports accounted for 12.2% of the international market share last year.

Now countries generally regard expanding exports as an important means to promote economic recovery, and the competition in the international market is increasingly fierce.

We need to increase the intensity of policy support, consolidate the market share of traditional dominant products, support the development of new formats and new business models, enhance the division of labor in the global value chain of our industries, and foster new competitive advantages in foreign trade.

Wen Bin, principal research fellow of Minsheng Bank, said that in terms of policy, short-term fiscal policy should be more active, and prudent monetary policy should also emphasize tightness. In the medium and long term, the reform dividend should be released through innovation to further activate the growth momentum.