How Big Is The Probability Of Greece'S Retreat From Europe?

Will Greece withdraw from the eurozone?

UBS strategist Thibault Colle wrote in a report to clients that UBS recently had a long line with large.

During the meeting, the Greek issue became one of the important concerns of investors. 1/3 of them believed that Greece's chances of leaving the euro area were close to 50%.

The report says

The price of the three - year treasury bonds generally reflects that the market believes that Greece has a 40% chance of withdrawing from the euro zone and that investors can only recover 30% of their investment.

The report points out that if Greece is to withdraw from the eurozone in the next 6 months, Greece will lose its ability to repay its euro debt because of the devaluation of Greek currency.

It could be severely hit.

UBS said that for Athens, April would be the hardest month, because the Greek government needed to find a solution before the imminent July debt repayment deadline.

UBS pointed out that although the Greek government has promised to submit a reform list at the beginning of next week, the negotiations are expected to continue to drag on; in view of the large debt repayment of Greece in the coming weeks, market sentiment may become tense again in April.

This leads to further deposits flowing out of the Greek banking sector.

According to the Bank of Greece, the country's bank deposits fell to nearly 10 years low in February, and the Greeks extracted about 8 billion euros from the bank, as the country's political uncertainty rose and faced doubts about the possibility of withdrawing from the euro.

In the past three months, the Greeks have extracted about 25 billion euros of deposits from the banking system of the country, for fear that the country will change its currency or implement capital controls.

Related links:

After the shock of the day before yesterday, the stock market index of the two cities finally returned to Hong Kong, which was strongly influenced by favorable factors, and the trend of real estate stocks was strong.

But it is worth noting that the volume of turnover has shrunk, which shows the cautious attitude of investors. Therefore, although the stock index has been closed, it may not be very practical.

Although there may be a concussion in the short-term market, the overall trend of the overall market has not changed, so we can still operate some strong stocks which are not very high in K-line position.

For those "two boards", those stocks rushing to the sky will not be touched well. These stocks have already had a "market dream rate". If the annual report can not keep up with the growth rate of the stock price, it will surely accumulate huge risks. Maybe the limit will be changed to a limit, or the first day limit will be put on the second day.

These two days have been rumored that Chai Hei is facing a crisis and is going to have an accident. He suggests that investors sell more than one stock. Zai Xi related people said: "this rumor is nonsense, and many of the votes listed are not ours."

As a well-known private placement, every move will affect the nerves of the market, and the related stocks have fallen sharply.

Although Chai hee has come to clarify, perhaps we can see from this incident that the supervision should be pervasive, especially some famous institutions will become the focus of supervision.