Brokerage Performance Lower Stock Prices Almost All Line Down

Brokerage stocks almost all line down institutions predict lower performance in the second half

Encountered black Monday, brokerage stocks in the summer of summer.

In July 27th, in the 23 stocks of the brokerage sector, except for the 9.87% decline of the state securities, 2 cents from the limit, the remaining 22 were all down.

It is worth mentioning that, in the Shanghai Composite Index July 9th ~7 24 rebounded, many small and medium capitalization stocks rose surprisingly, and some even hit a new high, while the brokerage sector is basically not improving.

Reporters learned that the agency believes that the valuation of brokerages is relatively low, the second half of the performance is hard to exceed the first half.

The return range of bull stock is also amazing.

CITIC Securities's lowest point in July 9th was 21.20 yuan, after yesterday's limit, it closed at 21.51 yuan, only 1% down from the new low this year.

Since the beginning of this year, CITIC Securities has fallen by 36.55%, ranking the first in the brokerage sector. The Pacific, founder and Changjiang Securities have also fallen by more than 30%; Haitong Securities and Soochow securities have fallen by nearly 30%; only the newly listed Guoxin Securities and Orient Securities have risen.

This is the bull market with investors.

The rise is in sharp contrast.

In the bull market of 2006~2007, CITIC Securities rose more than 20 times, especially during the period from May 2006 to October 2007, when it rose to 1955%.

In fact, even in the bull market, the callbacks of the most bull stocks are amazing.

Investors may only remember the surge in CITIC Securities in 2006~2007, but ignore its downfall.

According to statistics from reporters, in June 5, 2006 ~2006, CITIC Securities fell 24.13%, the highest price was 18.40 yuan, the lowest down to 11.51 yuan, the largest decline of 37.45%; and before that, CITIC Securities share price rose from a historical low of 4.17 yuan to 18.40 yuan or up to 341.27%.

After August 10, 2006, CITIC Securities started to walk again; in November 2007, it reached a record high of 117 yuan (not resumed power); in 2008, CITIC Securities implemented the first 10 to 10 after the listing, even though two times in December of last year and April this year broke through the historical high point after the resumption of power, at least, it was difficult to find 100 million shares in the stock price at that time.

Safety margin in the long run

For the recent trend of brokerage stocks, He Guowen, an analyst with state securities, pointed out that the opportunities and challenges of the securities industry in the second half of the year coexist. "First, registration system, strategic emerging board,

The gradual landing of such favorable policies will enhance the space for the development of the securities industry. Secondly, the two financial management measures and the over-the-counter allocation will promote the development of the two financial businesses. The re opening of new shares will enhance the performance contribution of investment banks.

At present, the brokerage industry in 2015 industry earnings ratio is 15 times, the market rate is 2.5 times, is still at a low level.

Therefore, we should increase the rating of the industry.

It is worth mentioning that, at the time when the disclosure window period of listed companies is at present, according to the data released by the Securities Industry Association, the performance of the securities companies in the first half of this year is in sharp contrast to the stock price trend.

Data show that

Operating income in the first half of 2015 was 330 billion 508 million yuan, an increase of 237 billion 480 million yuan compared with the first half of 2014, an increase of 255.3%, net profit of 153 billion 196 million yuan, an increase of 120 billion 850 million yuan compared with the first half of 2014, an increase of 373.6%.

Shen Wan Hongyuan believes that due to the process of deleveraging, the volume of trading volume and credit business in the second half of this year will decline to a certain extent. The performance of securities companies in the second half of the year is hard to surpass the first half of this year, and this market basically formed a consensus.

Reporters found that the current balance of the two balances has been maintained at 1 trillion and 400 billion yuan level, and the historical peak is 2 trillion and 266 billion yuan in June 18th. According to 8.35% of the annualized interest rate of two, if the two financial balance has been kept at 1 trillion and 400 billion yuan level, then the broker will receive less than 36 billion yuan interest less than the average balance of 2 trillion and 266 billion yuan in the second half of the year, with an average of less than 200 million yuan per day.

However, the view of Shen Wan Hongyuan is similar to that of the state securities company. Both of them say that the performance growth of securities companies will occupy the forefront of various industries in the whole year. At the same time, the overall valuation of the securities industry is at a relatively low level. Therefore, in the long run, securities companies have a higher margin of safety.