The Second Wave Bull Market May Have To Wait A While To Bear The Loneliness.

As we all know, the industrial upgrading of the economic pformation is a great challenge for China. It depends on the reconfiguration of resources. However, the traditional bank based allocation method has gradually manifested inadaptability, and the significance of the capital market as a more efficient, faster and more market-oriented way of distribution has also been highlighted.

Only by financing the stock market can we achieve the goal of "raising the proportion of direct financing and reducing leverage" in the 13th Five-Year plan. Only through mergers and acquisitions can we reorganize or withdraw the market of the zombie enterprises that have swallowed up huge credit resources, effectively resolve excess capacity, and enable those competitive and innovative enterprises to do well, strengthen and expand mainly through equity financing (including IPO and refinancing).

In a word, the stock market with complete financing function shoulders the important task of upgrading the industry in economic pformation.

Only by financing the stock market can we achieve the goal of "raising the proportion of direct financing and reducing leverage" in 13th Five-Year.

Only through mergers and acquisitions can we get the zombie companies that have swallowed up huge credit resources to reorganize or withdraw from the market and effectively resolve excess capacity.

At the end of last week, the securities and Futures Commission announced "no need to make payment in advance and restart IPO within the year". Most agencies anticipate the second wave of bull market, and many analysts recommend bank shares and blue chips, because blue chip shares are low in price and small in size, and they can serve as a "market value" for shaking new shares.

But this week's market performance is not satisfactory, especially for the big blue chips, the Shanghai Stock Index 50 dropped from 2493 to 2447 points, down nearly 2%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index also fell from 3793 to 3756, down to 1%.

We should know that retail investors should enjoy the same rights as institutions, and only pay after signing the contract. How long has this market been appealed? This management finally relaxed and conceded. How good is this?

At the beginning, the author did not understand.

Until this Wednesday, the central financial and economic leading group met and read the four sentences on the stock market, which are widely understood, such as complete financing function, solid foundation system, effective market supervision, and full protection of investors' rights and interests.

The central financial and economic leading group has two main topics: economic structural reform and urban work.

As for the "structural reform", the conference said: "while moderately expanding the aggregate demand, we should focus on strengthening the structural reform of the supply side".

This formulation implies a major change in the thinking of the decision-making level, that is, the focus of our reform has shifted from "demand side" to "supply side".

The main means of demand side reform is to stimulate, use monetary policy and fiscal policy to stimulate demand.

Facts have proved that since the financial crisis, we have used the strong stimulus of "4 trillion" and issued a large amount of money. At present, the total amount of money has exceeded 2 times that of GDP. The slogan of stimulating domestic demand is very loud, and the effect is not obvious; as for external demand, the economic weakness of European and American countries is not stimulated by any country's policies.

The reform of the supply side is mainly not stimulus but resolution. The current emphasis is on three solutions: resolving excess capacity, resolving real estate inventory, and preventing financial risks.

In the four sentence, the "financing function is complete" has been put in the first place, and it is explicitly proposed to "accelerate" (the meeting referred to the "acceleration" of two, one is "accelerating the formation of......")

The stock market "two" is to "speed up the urbanization rate of household registration". The two "acceleration" should be the focus of structural reform.

Financing includes first (IPO) and refinancing, including stocks and bonds. From the four sentence context, namely, "accelerating the formation of a fully functioning stock market, a solid foundation system, effective market regulation, and full protection of investors' rights and interests", the focus is on the stock market (not the stock market debt market that has been mentioned again and again), but also the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market (not the multi-level capital market that has been emphasized repeatedly).

Only in this way can we understand why, after suspending IPO for four months,

We have not yet reached the 4500 point (this is the point that the national team has promised not to reduce). Last weekend, we had to restart the IPO urgently, and we could understand why there was no need to make a new payment. If we restart the IPO and freeze trillions of funds, it will lead to the violent turbulence in the stock market. In June, the huge earthquake has made the highest level painful, which is not allowed to happen again.

The question is, the stock is going to be able to get out.

If we want to go strong, investors will have to earn money.

The premise is two: first, the capital should be loose, and the two is to make profits.

However, the latest data released in October show that: external demand growth is negative, industry, investment and consumption are low, credit is weak, and real estate inventory is increasing. There is no new bright spot or new.

Before that, the second wave bull market may have to wait.