How To Run The Cotton Market In The New Year?

After the Spring Festival in the year of monkey, maybe you are still immersed in the joyous atmosphere of the Spring Festival.

Is the mood of the industry concerned relaxed? The cotton market in the new year still affects the nerves of cotton people.

The so-called "spot not move, futures first", after the Spring Festival, the first trading day of Zheng cotton futures can be described as a cold water poured into the hearts of cotton people. Zheng cotton's main contracts have dropped down after opening, and Zheng cotton main force CF1609 has created the lowest contract since the listing - 10370 yuan / ton, as expected at a certain meeting before the holiday, the 10000 Yuan era of cotton is coming.

Why has the cotton market fluctuated so much? How should the cotton market fluctuate in 2016? I think from the following points of view, first, during the Spring Festival, the US cotton futures crashed and broke, and the industry saw a stable 60 cents / pound on the first day of the new year, which broke down in the first year of the new year. During the festival, the US cotton futures were below 58 cents / pounds, making the downward pressure on the domestic cotton atmosphere. In addition, USDA reported that the cotton data was empty in February, and the global cotton consumption data reduction was larger than the output reduction, resulting in an increase of 266 thousand tons in the end of the world inventory.

China's consumption data also showed a downward trend, and output remained unchanged.

According to the NCC survey, the 2016/17 cotton planting area increased by 6.2% over the same period last year, which has increased the supply pressure of the far moon.

Secondly, domestic

The speculation has not cooled down. The price of the rumor will be carried out at an average price calculated by the authoritative price index at home and abroad. Under the situation of high inventory consumption ratio, this will undoubtedly bring a huge downward pressure on cotton prices.

Finally, cotton textile and downstream consumption are stagnant. According to China Customs statistics, China's textiles and garments in January 2016

24 billion 131 million US dollars, down 5.49% compared to the same period last year.

Cotton spinning enterprises are generally not optimistic about the trend of orders in the new year, and all kinds of consumption data have been lowered. Although cotton production in 2015 has declined significantly compared with last year, it is not the main problem of the problem. Cotton prices are rising hard and falling is more feasible.

For the 2016 cotton trend, I think the overall cotton futures should be the leading spot market.

However, due to the outstanding reserve cotton rotation, there is still a clear divergence between the spot and the spot market. Inevitably, there will be some volatile fluctuations.

After the new spring, the cotton industry should pay attention to the sale price rhythm of several large large cotton merchants in China and the post - cotton textile enterprises' replenishment nodes, and more importantly, how to implement it.

All in all, cotton can not be sold in a timely manner, and it should also be aware of and guard against the risks it faces.

At the national level, we look forward to standing ahead in the long term development of the industry and implementing the policy of early implementation. The market pformation is bound to hurt one side. High inventory does not solve the difficulty of restoring the vitality of the cotton industry.

Cotton and ginning factory level, mainly refers to the larger inventory of enterprises, should promptly adjust sales strategy, continue to wait in the current market is certainly not a good way.

If you have to wait, you should also put on your life jacket, and suggest that you buy the cotton put option or hedge the risk of spot futures through cotton futures.

At the level of cotton spinning enterprises, small spinning enterprises suggest that they should continue to buy and buy when the policy is uncertain. The larger inventory enterprises should take into account the value of stock and suggest buying a put option.

All things are done before they are expected, and they are expected to be abandoned. They expect cotton people to grasp the core direction of the national economic work conference and comprehensively use various means to withstand market risks.