Supply Side Reform: No Major Breakthrough Has Been Made In Pformation.

The supply side reform was put forward under the economic background of "supply can not keep up with demand".

In the past, the quantity of products supplied could not keep up with the demand of consumption. Now, the surplus and insufficiency of products, services and their productive factors coexist simultaneously.

Although the society has entered a new era of big data, Internet, mobile and full channel development, demand signals are distorted, effective demand is suppressed, and supply has multiple obstacles to market reaction.

Therefore, there has been no major breakthrough in pformation.

From the perspective of circulation, business models, marketing methods and service methods are constantly improving, but there are no significant improvements in commodity quality, service taste, and businessmen's character. The way of deceive and deceive is upgrading. In the final analysis, there are two problems: the external business environment and internal operation mechanism, resulting in no significant improvement in circulation efficiency.

The supply side reform in circulation is to make suppliers more responsive to the consumption escalation of demand side by increasing short board, reducing burden, driving power and eliminating the obstacles of "four operations".

China's retail industry is also the same, no typhoons, safe and sound, once there is trouble, the first thing to fall is the lack of "Hsinchu".

But what is the foundation of retail? This is a question worth thinking. As long as we cultivate the foundation, the future of physical retailing will be more and more bright.

China's three major portals (Sohu, Sina, NetEase) and BAT (Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent) are all set up at the turn of the century.

Tencent, Alibaba and Baidu were founded in 1998, 1999 and 2000 respectively. NetEase was founded in 1997, 1998 came out with sina, and the three portals were successfully listed on NASDAQ in 2000.

In 2003, Ali founded the free Taobao. In 2009, "singles day" was planned as the "double 11 shopping Carnival". In 2013, the "Taobao mall" was renamed "Tmall mall". In 2003, the Jingdong was established, and the 1 shop was established in 2008. The booming development of life service websites gradually changed the buying behavior of consumers.

In addition, from the QQ in 1999 to the opening of WeChat in 2011, the rapid development of social networking platforms is changing the way people live.

All the major changes today are rooted in "mobile".

Since the launch of WeChat in 2011, the number of mobile end users has increased rapidly since 2012. By 2014, the number of mobile users exceeds PC, and mobile phones have become the main Internet access equipment for netizens.

Mobile data records people's behavior, making consumers "comprehensive data". They are quietly "portrait" in the process of mobile Internet, and have been labeled with invisible personalized "interest labels".

Then try to find ways to use them to influence them.

Tracking, labeling and pushing are the trilogy of dealing with consumers in a comprehensive way.

For example, at present, it is easy to use web technology to implement "positioning" for web browsing people. For example, when consumers have visited the shopping website's bag, he will catch the interest points of the "bag" after being captured by the merchant. Later, when the user opens other webpages, he will accurately push the relevant advertisements, coupons and other information to this potential consumer. Under the influence of the marketing method called "visiting location", 80% of the consumers will purchase behavior.

Advertisers are more and more optimistic about the mobile zone. WeChat has become the most optimistic advertising scenario for all advertisers, followed by search engines, micro-blog, video websites, mobile advertising and so on.

Manufacturers have also begun to pay attention to the mobile Internet. The existing dealer system has been challenged by unprecedented challenges. The flat channel and personalized C2B customization have become the trend of development. In 2015, the blue moon announced that it was a channel revolution to withdraw from the KA store. "Haier Zhengzhou interconnect plant" produced the world's first "personal custom air conditioner", which may be a symbol of manufacturing from mass production to customized production, indicating the beginning of a new era.

The equipment vendors are subverting tradition. The most representative one is Dr. Yang Dehong, who has a senior IBM experience. He said to me, "I have been engaged in R & D and expansion of the retail cash register system for nearly 20 years, but in the past 20 years, the first unsatisfactory problem in consumer surveys is the collection of receipts.

Mobile payment based on Internet can save customers' time by 50-80%.

This is a great impetus to the progress of mankind as a whole.

Once again, I want to destroy the traditional cash registers and vigorously promote mobile payment.

From selling cash registers to trying to eliminate cash registers, many kinds of subversion are taking place.

Retailers are also brewing a payment revolution. If credit card consumption is a "black sheep", then WeChat payment or Alipay payment is a "losing country". This payment method even subverts the direct payment function of RMB.

In January 15, 2016, a "Alipay member store" called "box horse fresh life" was opened at the 1 floor B1 (Zhang Yanglu 3611) of Jinqiao International Commercial Plaza, Shanghai. The main business is fresh. Shoppers must first download APP to become a member of the store, and can only use Alipay checkout.

According to the existing regulations, this has been suspected of breaking the law. But most consumers do not care about these old conventions. They are very similar to our "old rules". They are willful to be similar to our "single child"! Our survey at 9:30 p.m. on January 17th at the Union website shows that among the 342 people who participated in the network survey, the answer to the survey question about "Alipay members can not pay cash in cash is that you are legal." the answer is: "legal" people account for 48%, 38% of those who think "illegal" are 38%, and those who think "legal" are 14%.

"Second days after the opening of the business," the person in charge of "box horse fresh life" told me that Alipay has adapted and basically accepted Alipay's payment method after two years of "double 12" push.

After listening to his words, I feel that this practice is somewhat defective, and there are some contradictions with the existing laws and regulations, but if we can shake the monopoly position of traditional payment methods, settlement methods and charging methods, it is of milestone significance.

Practice needs exploration, laws need to be revised, and retail needs innovation.

"Many people" is the basic national condition of our country. Everyone is a member of the huge "denominator" of "China's population". When the larger total is divided by the huge denominator, there will be many problems, and the circulation field is the most direct manifestation.

Thirty years ago, the biggest department store in China was in Shanghai. The most puzzled question of the store manager at that time was "too many people". This "manager who was afraid of customers" was later becoming Mr. Zhang Guangsheng, director of the Shanghai Business Committee and chairman of Pudong Development Bank.

From the perspective of commodity consumption, Chinese consumers have mainly bought three large commodities, namely, household appliances, housing and automobiles.

When the salary is only a few hundred dollars, it will take several months or even a year to buy a TV.

Today's car is the same as the TV set of the year. The cost of a car is as high as a year to a few years.

More people are needed, things are more expensive and taxes are higher.

If industrial products go to the countryside is the exploitation of farmers, then cars and housing are "looting" for urban residents.

Appliances and cars have activated our country.

Market, and property is activated in China's investment market, in the two markets, the most hurt is the ordinary blame.

From the data of circulation, the upgrading of consumption in China is faster than once.

The total retail sales of consumer goods (before 1992, the total retail sales of social commodities), from 155 billion 800 million yuan in 1978 to 10994 billion yuan in 1992, has gone through 13 years. From five trillion to five trillion (2003), it has gone through 11 years. From five trillion to one hundred thousand billion (2008), it has experienced 5 years, from one hundred thousand billion to 20 trillion (2012), and has gone through 4 years. From 2 trillion to 30 trillion yuan, only 3 years have been used.

From the point of view of circulation regulation, the development process of circulation in China is particularly large, and the commercial intelligence of government officials can not be compared with that of industry experts.

This makes China's circulation industry inevitably exist for a long time, and the misjudgement of the leaders will have a serious impact on the whole industry.

In the past 60 years, China has been studying the Soviet Union for the first thirty years, and has been listening to the leadership for thirty years.

The so-called "listening leadership" can be divided into three kinds of normality.

First, if leaders care about them, they will promote and develop them.

Such as chain, logistics, e-commerce, such as agricultural super docking, 10000 villages, thousands of farmers, farmers shop.

But the words of leadership seem to be effective in the early stage, and the more the late and recent, the less effective.

Two, if leaders oppose it, go ahead with rectification and governance.

For example, the blame for wholesale market and the crusade against zero supply relationship.

In most cases, what leaders see is only "superficial phenomenon". Accordingly, "instructions" often misjudge, misjudge, even increase unnecessary administrative costs and increase the burden of taxpayers.

Therefore, I have long proposed that "instructions" are really high level instructions. They must be used with caution, or even without use.

In fact, in most cases, leaders can sign or sign without any signature.

But this is not the case. Last year, I was invited to discuss and exchange with a pilot city in the reform of circulation system. After the meeting, the mayor said to me, our leaders have something to do and must do something.

It is right to pursue as much as possible, but if we purposely pursue it, we may lead to "overdoing".

Some seemingly important things may actually be unconstitutional violations.

Three, if the leader doesn't make any noise, you have to kill yourself.

China's circulation industry has been facing frequent problems in recent years. Food safety, price fraud, zero supply relationship, and cheating have been criticized.

In particular, the operation of traditional store operators is deteriorating. For example, a chain Corporation issued a "profit warning" on the business situation in 2015. It is said that the sales revenue and investment income have been greatly reduced by the impact of e-commerce and the changes in consumer habits.

Another big chain corporation boss admitted: in recent years, the bad shops have been closed in batches, and the number of employees has decreased from 50 thousand to 30 thousand, so that the company can survive.

Under such a background, few leaders speak for circulation, and enterprises are in a state of self destruction.

The rise of innovation and entrepreneurship has provided a leader for leaders, and has also provided a "starting point" for the introduction of the new deal.

However, it is difficult to justify some policies from logical analysis.

Shanghai even issued a policy of "government compensation for the loss of angel investment". The compensation amount for a single project is limited to 3 million yuan, and the compensation amount for a single investment institution is 6 million yuan per year.

I calculated my salary income in May 2015, divided into two parts: financial wage and school salary, 2975 yuan in financial wages, 9085 yuan in school, and 12060 yuan in total, including 6 yuan for trade union membership, 1308.3 yuan for pension, 81.8 yuan for unemployment insurance, 1813 yuan for provident fund, 327.1 yuan for medical insurance, 409.76 yuan for tax adjustment, 327.1 for total deductions, and $18 for tax deductions.

In the whole year, the annual income from the tax deducted after the deduction is about 140 thousand yuan in addition to class subsidy and holiday subsidy. The net annual income after deducting the 2-3 yuan tax is about 120 thousand yuan.

That is to say, the taxes of 300 university professors like me can only subsidize an annual investment loss of "angel investment organization".

If this is true, then what do we pay taxes?

From the perspective of people's lives, the main purpose is to look at the vegetable market.

I think that standardized vegetable market is one of the basic motivations for raising the price of vegetables in Shanghai.

I often go to a vegetable farm near the four village of Xin Song, Shanghai, to buy vegetables, which was renovated just over a year ago.

After the pformation, the location of the stall for farmers was set up. 40 yuan a day, farmers usually go to two times a week to sell their own vegetables.

There are more than ten stalls for selling fish, and a few square meters of stalls are up to 3000 yuan per month.

My business trainees said to me, "the standardized vegetable market was first introduced in Putuo 10 years ago, when the vegetable stand cost about 1000 and the seafood stalls at meat stands about 1800."

Ten years later, today's booth fees have gone up. The stall owners are still so polite to do business. The 1 yuan or 2 yuan change is always unacceptable. After receiving the money, they always say "thank you". But they are so hospitable, they only made 1000 yuan on Sunday.

According to this calculation, the rental sales ratio is as high as 10%, which is now the so-called top quality supermarket rental cap.

If the sales date is 2000 yuan, the sales ratio of rent will be as high as 5%.

This is also a high proportion.

Shanghai's vegetable market or standardized vegetable market does not reflect the characteristics of public welfare. This is a livelihood issue that Shanghai people's government must pay close attention to.

Because the vegetable market has long been identified as a public welfare facility, but in the specific implementation process, it has failed to fully reflect public welfare.

The sale of vegetable rentals is one of the basic motivations for raising the price of vegetables in Shanghai.

Perhaps through in-depth investigation, problems can be found more clearly.

The supply side reform in the circulation field can seek reform from two aspects: the external business environment of enterprises and the management of enterprises themselves.

From the external business environment, the government's market is at least an active market, while the government supported market is a sluggish market.

If we continue to suppress the market is still active, that shows that the suppression policy may be partial failure or ineffective; if sustained support for the market is still in the doldrums, it shows that there is no key support for market start-up.

In the past, the way to manage circulation is the invoice card! The goal is very simple: let the people basically get enough to wear warm! Now what is the goal? Circulation reform should be based on improving the "circulation efficiency".

Production efficiency is the problem of local resource allocation; circulation efficiency is the problem of overall resource allocation; production efficiency involves the relationship between man and nature; the efficiency of circulation involves the redistribution of interests between people, which is the essential relationship of society.

The efficiency of circulation directly determines the degree of social harmony.

Management methods such as drug bidding, drug price management, government procurement, state owned business, government subsidy, and multi head regulation should be sought in order to find out the problems, departments, fields and regulations that the government manages in the process of circulation.

This is the first priority. However, the current situation of the Ministry of Commerce, the Commerce Commission and the commerce department is: to do something, but to be weak, and to improve at the same level, can not be pushed forward, resulting in the lack of strength. For example, the circulation of the national team, the Jinding Yin Ding Department selection, the agricultural super docking, the 10000 villages and thousands of townships and so on, all need to be reconsidered and evaluated.

The key points in domestic trade are two points: first, to maintain fair competition; and second, to safeguard consumer rights and interests.

Natural monopoly + administrative monopoly = unequal unfair competition.

The reform of circulation should be adapted to three aspects: first, to adapt to the characteristics of the times; the Internet or Internet + the biggest impact on the government; the government must first adapt to it; open, pparent, service, fair, reasonable and honest; two, adapt to the upgrading of consumption, enhance consumer awareness of rights, flow out into the vent valve and funnel hole, do not serve well, enterprises and the government will be troubled! Three, adapt to the pformation of enterprises, pform state-owned enterprises into private enterprises, and marketization. This is the general trend.

There are four basic directions: one is to pay attention to mass consumption, such as strengthening community business in terms of people's livelihood, strengthening regulation and construction of new business forms, and properly restricting some aspects.

From the point of circulation efficiency, the traditional "pick up retail" is superior to the "delivery retailing" of e-commerce. Chinese people are numerous. If the convenience of consumers is arbitrarily flooded, new social problems will soon appear in a few years, such as pportation, environmental protection, human nature and so on.

Two, we should pay attention to rural consumption, upgrade the retail formats and business facilities, integrate with the needs of urban businesses, and manage commercial chaos.

In the double management system of collective and family, the collective economy is seriously missing. The contradiction between "small farmers" and "big market" restricts the improvement of the circulation efficiency of agricultural products.

The production environment in China is "congenital deficient" due to changes in climate, water sources and farmland. This is the basic cause of food safety problems.

Cultivating the ecological environment of urban and rural symbiosis, developing large-scale agriculture and increasing farmers' income are the only way to promote the development of circulation industry in China.

The city should nurture the countryside, and should not dump the waste in the countryside. Otherwise, the urban people can only eat "garbage". Three, we should pay attention to the consumption of young people, and the new consumption hot spots need to be nurtured and guided.

The four is to pay attention to the consumption of the elderly, and to embody public welfare, convenience and humanity.

Government management circulation must embody five basic functions, that is, regulation, planning, approval, supervision and service, all of which depend on data first.

In short, the government should not be too sentimental. Taxpayers should use their money reasonably, and the government should be reasonable and talk about what people can understand and accept.