PTA Prices Will Gradually Shift Upward, Supply And Demand Will Be Tight.

Since the two quarter of last year, PTA has shown a low oscillation pattern under the pressure of macro economic weakness and the downward trend of crude oil prices.

However, as the downstream is coming back to work and the two quarter of the peak season of consumption is coming, can PTA get rid of a decent rebound? Let's give an answer from the supply and demand situation of PTA in the coming months.

At present, the domestic PTA capacity is about 46 million 700 thousand tons, but the actual supply market capacity is only 32 million 800 thousand tons.

In the first half of this year, in the case of a sharp improvement in gross profit margin, the capacity of the small device to return to the market is expected to be 600 thousand to 2 million tons (at present, the processing fee is near 500 to 600 yuan / ton, and more small devices are expected to reach 800 to 900 yuan / ton).

At the same time, this year can

There are very few new capacity installations. It is estimated that only 2 million 200 thousand tons of new Hon Bang Petrochemical Company in Jiangyin can be put into operation from 3 to April. At present, it plans to produce 1 million 100 thousand tons of capacity in March and then open 1 million 100 thousand tons of capacity.

As a result, after entering the March, without the high processing fee, the actual capacity to supply the market is expected to be only 35 million tons.

However, combined with the characteristics of petrochemical plant and the frequency analysis of the failure of PTA devices in recent years, even under the strategy of high load production in factories, there will be parking conditions caused by various factors.

Based on the estimated future output and demand data, we add

The net import volume of large categories is estimated at 10 thousand tons / month. We can get the PTA supply and demand situation in the coming 3 to June (see table below).

At present, PTA social inventory is near 1 million 900 thousand tons, which belongs to a low level this year. It can be found that supply and demand are very easy before and after 4 to May.

It should be noted that future output and

The prediction is based on the historical low level of troubleshooting rate and demand growth rate, and in fact, in the industry with extremely high concentration, the strategic turn of a single PTA manufacturer or the failure of larger equipment may result in high supply and demand.

Referring to the statistics of the lower limit of the maintenance of PTA devices in recent years, 3% to 5% of the above 35 million tons of capacity can be used as the normal breakdown maintenance scale of our conservative prediction device, which is about 1 million to 2 million tons.

Therefore, after March, without the high processing fee, the PTA output of Hon Bang Petrochemical Company in Jiangyin will be around 2 million 800 thousand tons per month. If there is a high processing fee, the old capacity that can be returned to the market is expected to be 50 thousand to 100 thousand tons per month.

In short, the PTA output in the first half of the month is estimated to be 2 million 800 thousand to 2 million 900 thousand tons. If the PTA device of Jiangyin Hon Bang petrochemical company fails to produce normally, the PTA supply may drop by 100 thousand to 200 thousand tons.

On the whole, the supply and demand side of PTA will gradually strengthen, especially in 4 to May.

However, the possibility that upstream crude oil and PX will play a negative role in the next few months is less likely to enter into the positive support factor after the two quarter.

Therefore, in the next few months, the price of PTA will go down very little, and the price center will gradually increase, and the probability of climbing to 5000 yuan / ton will be larger.