PTA Industry Boom Is Worth Looking Forward To.

Driven by the recent rebound in international oil prices and the shrinking of industry capacity, the concern of the PTA industry continues to heat up.

Multinational countries expressed support for oil producing countries to freeze production plans. International oil prices surged nearly 20% in the past week, and led domestic PTA futures prices to climb nearly 6%.

PTA as one of the most sensitive varieties of oil price rebound, the industry boom is expected to improve when the supply side reform brings the contraction of production capacity, and the profit level is expected to improve.

At present, the long-term parking capacity of PTA exceeds 12 million tons, accounting for 1/4 of the total capacity. The effective capacity of the industry is about 36 million tons, the market demand is about 30 million tons, and the overcapacity situation has improved.

In addition, the new production capacity is coming to an end, and the next 2 years will only have 3 million 200 thousand tons of new capacity.

In terms of cost competitiveness, the device is relatively new and has a large capacity.

Good leading enterprises, in the PTA production of raw material costs can be controlled from 500 yuan to 600 yuan / ton, and inefficient old equipment, raw material costs from 800 yuan to 1000 yuan / ton, will face long-term parking and the risk of being eliminated.

In terms of terminal demand, the output of polyester fiber in China has maintained sustained and rapid growth for many years, with an average annual growth of nearly 10%. The output of filament yarn increased from less than 10 million tons in 2006 to 26 million 200 thousand tons in 2014, with an average annual growth rate of 13%.

Although production growth in recent years has been affected by multiple factors such as economic slowdown and export decline, it has maintained an average annual growth rate of 6% to 8%. It rose to more than 10% in October before 2015.

It is estimated that the output of China's polyester filament will exceed 30 million tons in 2017, which will bring strong support to the PTA industry.

In addition, in the phasing out of backward production capacity, market share will further gather to the leading enterprises.

The proportion of the top three enterprises has increased from 32% in 2010 to 56% now. The top three private enterprises (Yisheng and Hengli petrochemical) account for nearly 60% of the effective capacity, and the capacity utilization rate has increased to about 85%.

The agency believes that the spread of PTA and PX spreads, and the ineffective capacity exit from the supply side reform, PTA

The upward turning point is expected.

Judging from the upstream PX raw materials, due to the substantial increase in new capacity, the bargaining power of PTA has been weakened, and industrial profits have shifted to the middle and lower reaches.

In fact, between 2010 and 2011, the PX capacity exceeded the demand of over 20%, and the upstream appeared overcapacity, and the downstream PTA links had strong profitability.

But in the large number of enterprises chase, from 2011 to 2013, the concentration of PTA capacity was released, the profitability of PTA declined, and the PX in the upper reaches showed a huge profit.

After 2014, with the release of a large number of PX capacity, the reduction of PTA delivery and the continuous optimization of industrial structure, the profit of industrial chain shifted to the middle and lower reaches again.

On the company side, Hengyi Petrochemical owns

The capacity production capacity is 6 million 150 thousand tons, and the polyester filament production capacity is 1 million 100 thousand tons.

Due to the improvement of PTA and polyester fiber supply and demand and the increase of gross profit margin, net profit is expected to be 100 million to 200 million yuan in 2015.

Rongsheng Petrochemical has PTA interest capacity of 5 million 950 thousand tons, polyester filament production capacity of 900 thousand tons.

Due to the rebound in polyester polyester prices and profit improvement in the CICC project, net profit of 350 million to 500 million yuan in 2015 is expected.

Tong Kun has 1 million 500 thousand tonnes of PTA capacity and 3 million tons of polyester filament production capacity. At present, it is increasing fund-raising and building up differentiated fiber projects.