Where Is The Rise And Fall Of Import And Export Year-On-Year?

Import and export data in April were priced in Renminbi, and exports were 4.1% year-on-year, with an expected value of 4.3%. The former value was 18.7%, and imports were -5.7% compared with the previous year. The expected value was 0.3%, the former value was -1.7%, the trade balance was 298 billion, 254 billion 900 million was expected, and the former value was 194 billion 600 million.

Specific comments are as follows:

Import and export are lower than

The main reason is that the data in March are so good that the market is expected to be too high.

Market expectations for import and export year-on-year tend to be trend extension. The jump in import and export data in March led to a high market expectation for April.

If we do not compare with March, but from a longer time series, we can see the trend of import and export warming: excluding March data, April exports were the highest in 13 months, compared with the 15 highest in April.

From the year of import and export quarterly released by the General Administration of customs, imports in April were -7.3% higher than in the previous year, reaching a 16 month high, with exports rising 0.2% year-on-year, reaching a 10 month high.

Theoretically, the year-on-year year-on-year adjustment can reflect the true import and export situation, but because China's seasonal adjustment method is not particularly mature, the quarterly adjustment data do not have obvious advantages compared with the pre season adjustment.

Historically, the import and export before and after the quarterly adjustment

The trend is consistent, but there are many differences at the time point; with industrial value added, we can not draw a better conclusion of what data.

Our view is that

The high volatility of the data should be taken into consideration in the trend of several months for judging the import and export situation. If the year-on-year data before and after the quarterly adjustment confirm the trend, then a more definite judgement can be made.

In April, the import and export seasonally adjusted downward trend was lower than that in March, and it was higher than that in March after the quarterly adjustment. However, from a longer time series, both of them had upward trend, so we maintained the judgement that the trend of import and export would remain unchanged.

On the whole, unless the policy layer fails, the economic recovery will continue; and the smaller the early recovery, the stronger the sustainability of the recovery.

In 2016, we still insisted that real estate investment and wide fiscal policy bring economic recovery. "Cycle return" is the key to the current economic recovery. In 2016, the L inflection point of China's economy has passed.

For the financial market, based on the logic of fundamental recovery, long-term bearish bond market, long term look at many commodities, firmly optimistic about the fundamentals driven long-term healthy bull market in China's stock market.