Alliance Effect Is Continuing To Spread In Polyester Industry.

From the earlier POY Quartet alliance to the FDY price increase and then to Huzhou joint downtime, the polyester market at this stage can not be described as busy.

Now it's a bad DTY industry. No, DTY manufacturers are going to launch soon.

It is reported that due to the difference in the price of polyester DTY, the competition is fierce. In order to develop the industry, in order to grow together, some domestic DTY giants, such as Sheng Hong, Heng Li, Heng Yi, Rong Sheng, Xin Fengming, Xing Hui and Tong Kun, held the market discussion meeting in Tongxiang on the morning of 27.

We temporarily put aside the correctness of the joint insurance system. At least in July this year, polyester filament was so popular that the current price increase trend has not weakened.

It is foreseeable that if there is no other special circumstances, the effect of DTY manufacturers re meeting will inevitably lead to a wave of polyester price rise.

However, when the polyester industry is soaring, the PTA, who has always been dominated by the industry chain, is stagnant. What are the reasons? And let the Xiaobian come slowly!

Since 2011,

The industry has entered the rapid expansion of production capacity. After 5 years of rapid growth, the domestic PTA capacity has increased from about 15000000 tons in late 2010 to nearly 47 million tons at the end of 2015, and about 3000000 tons of equipment have been put into operation and planned to be put into operation this year.

Contrary to the rapid increase in upstream supply, the consumption of terminal textile and clothing is shrinking due to the loss of export orders. The terminal consumption market of industrial chain is difficult to digest the rapid increase of raw material supply, resulting in the problem of overcapacity in PTA, and the industry operating rate has dropped from 90% to less than 70%, which has also caused the PTA price to continue to fall.

In the past two years, Far East petrochemical and Xiang Lu petrochemical giant production giant two, the domestic effective capacity decline temporarily relieved the supply side pressure, but the two sets of devices after the completion of the reorganization may be restarted. Rumor has it that in the second half of the year, Xiang Lu Petrochemical may retry the car.

In addition, besides Ji'nan Hao Hao, Liaoyang petrochemical, Peng Wei petrochemical, Yisheng Ningbo plant 2, BP Zhuhai 1, other devices have maintained normal production, and the original long term shutdown of Jialong petrochemical company has resumed this year.

We can see that the backward rate of elimination is slow, and the PTA industry wants to go through backward production capacity.

There is a long way to go to achieve the goal of healthy development.

Therefore, the price of PTA will continue to be constrained by excess capacity, showing a bottom oscillation pattern.

Under such circumstances, many PTA enterprises and traders will sell their futures in the futures market when the futures price rises to a certain height.

Since March, as PTA prices have bottomed out, enterprises have begun to deliver goods in the futures market, and PTA warehouse receipts have increased dramatically.

By the end of July 22nd, the warehouse receipts for PTA futures of Zhengzhou commercial bank reached 186046 hands, plus 9773 hands effective forecasts, the potential delivery volume reached 979095 tons, which is equivalent to half a month's domestic output.

Under the suppression of huge warehouse receipts, PTA futures prices will rise sharply.

Is facing the risk of high position pickup.

Therefore, the PTA1609 contract will run around the spot price, and spot price has become the most important factor affecting the PTA futures trend in the near future.

Because of the large number of potential industry short funds in the market, PTA futures have been on the spot slightly since the beginning of this year, but the highest is only 200 yuan / ton.

As of July 15th, the figure was only 91 yuan / ton.

At present, the current price difference is at a normal level, and futures do not need to repair the basis.

As a result, the spot market is also weaker.

In June, the theme of the PTA market hype was the G20 summit, which led to the consumption of the downstream peak season, plus the overall strength of the goods and the support of PTA's low processing fees. Many factors resonate, and PTA prices rose in the off-season.

However, compared with black products, compared with PP, PE and other chemicals, PTA's rebound has been relatively weak.

The way to go after PTA is probably the most important factor that affects the industry's attention. It is also the driving force to decide the rise of the polyester market. The author, based on the basic analysis of PTA, explores the future direction of PTA.