Domestic Demand Is Full Of Variable Consumer Goods Industry.

A few days ago, Sai Di think tank issued the "2016 second half of the industry and information technology trend forecast series report", the report believes that in the first half of this year, with the downward pressure of macroeconomic gradually ease and the gradual improvement of the international economic situation.

The growth rate of industrial production rebounded slightly, and the export situation improved. However, the slowdown in domestic demand was still evident.

Looking forward to the second half of this year, the growth rate of the consumer goods industry is expected to continue to pick up momentum, and the export situation will further improve. However, the growth of domestic demand is full of variables. The problems of increasing stock pressure, aggravating losses, and policy uncertainty can not be ignored.

Growth picked up slightly

The report shows that in the first half of this year, the growth rate of consumer goods industry increased significantly.

Compared with the same period last year, the added value of consumer goods industry increased significantly in 1~5 months.

The industrial added value of the three major sectors of the pharmaceutical industry increased by 6.5%, 6.7% and 10.1% respectively.

The added value of light industry industry has increased by 0.1 percentage points, the textile industry has been flat, and the pharmaceutical industry has dropped by 0.2 percentage points.

In the sub sectors, the growth rate of industrial added value of agricultural and sideline food processing, food manufacturing, paper and paper products manufacturing, rubber and plastic products and textile industry increased to varying degrees. However, the growth rate of chemical fiber manufacturing and liquor, beverage and refined tea manufacturing continued to decline.

Compared with the whole year last year, the growth rate of industrial added value of liquor, beverage and refined tea manufacturing industry and chemical fiber manufacturing industry has declined to a certain extent, and other industries have picked up in varying degrees.

With the strengthening of national macroeconomic regulation and control, the economic environment has gradually improved.

The external environment is gradually improving, and the growth of consumer goods industry is expected to rebound.

In the first quarter of this year, China's GDP growth rate dropped to 6.6%, but in the same period, entrepreneurs' confidence index and business climate index reached 107.9 and 107.1 respectively, compared with the same period last year.

In March, the people's Bank of China generally lowered the RMB deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points, ensured that the market liquidity was reasonable and abundant, and created favorable conditions for the steady and moderate growth of the economy.

In May, the purchasing managers index of China's manufacturing industry reached 50.1%, expanding for 3 consecutive months. The trend in the second half of this year will continue.

But because of the pressure of inventory, the growth of production will not be too obvious.

It is estimated that the growth rate of China's light industry value-added will be 6.5% in the second half of 2016, the growth rate of the added value of the pharmaceutical industry will be maintained at 10%, and the added value of the textile industry will increase by 6%.

Improvement of export situation

In the first half of this year, as the world economy slowly recovered, the export of consumer goods industry improved.

Compared with the same period last year, the export value of light industry, textile and pharmaceutical industry rose sharply in 1~5 months.

Light industry increased by 3.6 percentage points, textile and medicine also reached 3.3 and 2.8 percentage points respectively.

Apart from printing and recording media reproduction, furniture manufacturing, leather, fur, feathers and their products and footwear industry, the growth rate of export value of other industries has picked up in varying degrees.

The growth rate of chemical fiber manufacturing industry and culture, education, industry, sports and entertainment products was the most prominent.

In the second half of the year, the global economy will steadily recover, and the economies of developed countries and regions such as the European Union, the United States and Japan will enter a moderate growth. The consumer market will gradually get out of the doldrums, and China's consumer goods industry will have an opportunity to export.

The IMF's spring forecast shows that global economic growth will reach 3.2% in 2016 and 3.5% in 2017.

With the implementation of the "one belt and one way" strategy and the entry into force of the China South Korea Free Trade Agreement and the China Australia Free Trade Agreement, the advance of negotiations between China and the sea and the free trade agreement will bring new impetus to the growth of foreign trade.

It is estimated that in the second half of 2016, the export value of China's light industry will reach 4%, and the export value of the pharmaceutical industry will reach 8%. The export value of the textile industry is expected to increase by 1%.

Domestic demand growth continues to decline

In the first half of this year, the domestic demand for consumer goods industry was depressed due to macroeconomic downturn and increased investment risk.

In terms of consumer demand, the consumer confidence index decreased significantly in the first 5 months, of which the index was 99.8 in May, down 10.1 percentage points from the same period last year.

The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 10.2% over the same period last year, both lower than the same period last year and lower than the average growth rate in 2015.

Among them, the growth of liquor, clothing, shoes and hats, needles and textiles and cultural and office supplies was lower than the average level. The urban consumption increased by 10.1% over the same period last year, which is 0.8 percentage points lower than that in the rural areas.

In terms of investment in fixed assets, in addition to pharmaceutical manufacturing and agricultural and sideline products processing industries, the growth rate of fixed assets investment in other major sub sectors has dropped to varying degrees compared with the same period last year.

Compared with the whole year of 2015, there are only 4 sub sectors, such as agricultural and sideline products processing industry, food manufacturing industry, textile industry, pharmaceutical manufacturing industry, and the growth rate of fixed assets investment has rebounded, and the other sub sectors have shown a weak performance.

In May, China's consumer confidence index, consumer expectations index and consumer satisfaction index increased significantly compared with the same period last year.

Consumption demand growth in some industries has slowed down significantly, especially consumption of high-end liquor, tobacco, health care products and so on.

In the past, the main consumption of automobile and real estate, which drove consumption growth, tended to be rational and saturated, and the driving effect on consumption growth was gradually weakened.

It is estimated that in the second half of 2016, China's consumer confidence index is expected to remain at around 100, and the total retail sales of social consumer goods will grow at an annual growth rate of 10.5%.

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Facing many challenges

Sai Di think tank analysis, from the inventory growth perspective, in the consumer goods industry active structural inventory control efforts, light industry, medicine and other industries inventory growth rate declined significantly, but the textile industry is still facing greater inventory pressure, finished goods inventory growth year on year growth compared to the same period last year increased by 2.3 percentage points.

Compared with the total inventory of finished products, the industries of light industry, medicine, textile and other industries all showed a rise in different ranges, of which the textile industry increased by 0.6 percentage points.

In the coming period, weak market demand persists, and the consumer goods industry will face some pressure to go out of stock.

In the first half of 2016, under the dual influence of macroeconomic downturn and industrial restructuring, large and medium sized consumer goods enterprises showed obvious weakness in adapting to environmental changes and increased losses.

Since the second half of 2015, the government has promulgated a series of industrial policies for steady growth, restructuring and pformation, which will play a positive role in guiding the future development of the industry.

However, at the present stage of industrial development, some policies bring certain uncertainty to the development of enterprises.

On the one hand, the policy of consistency evaluation of generic drugs has increased the input of enterprises in technological pformation and drug evaluation, and the number of generics enterprises that can ultimately be evaluated may be few, and the industry development is facing a new round of shuffling.

On the other hand, the "13th Five-Year" development plan is intensive, but the corresponding implementation plan and specific measures can not be put into place in a short time, and the industrial development is facing policy lagging.