Shenzhen And Hong Kong Through The "Northward" And "Down South" New Wealth Opportunities Arise

According to the insiders, after the opening of Shenzhen and Hong Kong, whether it is international capital "North" or A share capital "go south" means new wealth opportunities.

Shenzhen and Hong Kong is coming.

In August 16th, the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the China Securities Regulatory Commission

The SFC signed a joint announcement and approved the establishment of a trading mechanism for Shenzhen and Hong Kong stock markets. This marks the start of the preparatory work for Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong.

Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong is expected to be officially opened in 4 months.

However, in August 30th, Qi Bin, director of the International Cooperation Department of the SFC and the Hong Kong Macau media, exchanged the Shenzhen and Hong Kong Exchanges. Further information was confirmed on the site's "general schedule of Shenzhen Hong Kong work". Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong is expected to open in mid and late 11.

Prior to that, according to the arrangements of Shenzhen Stock Exchange, securities dealers will complete the preparation of Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong before November, and Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong is expected to be officially launched in November.

Insiders say that Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong has a natural wealth effect.

After the Shenzhen Hong Kong stock market is opened, both the international capital "northward" or the mainland capital "go south" means new wealth opportunities.

So, how many incremental funds will be brought into the opening of Shenzhen and Hong Kong? Guotai Junan believes that although Shenzhen Hong Kong landing is expected to enhance short-term market risk preferences, it will not affect the core variables of the current market trend, and Shenzhen Hong Kong Limited has limited incremental funding.

If the Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong opened at the beginning, the daily amount would be referred to Shanghai and Hong Kong through the same route, that is, the north to Shenzhen Stock Exchange, which will be 13 billion yuan per day.

If the average daily usage rate of Shenzhen Stock Exchange reaches 5%-10% in the next half year, it is expected to bring an incremental fund of 75 billion yuan -1500 billion for the A share market, accounting for about 8 trillion and 500 billion yuan 0.9%-1.8% of the Shenzhen Shenzhen Stock Exchange's circulation market value.

Short term liquidity has limited impact.

Ping An Securities believes that after the implementation of Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong, A shares may be a net outflow.

After the opening of Shenzhen and Hong Kong, if the amount of capital used in northern Shenzhen can reach the current level of Shanghai Stock Exchange, that is 149 billion 800 million yuan, accounting for 1% of the total market value of Shenzhen stock market at 14 trillion yuan.

Moreover, from the situation of Shanghai and Hong Kong, the total utilization rate of Hong Kong stock has reached 81%, and the enthusiasm of the South capital is higher. Therefore, after the implementation of Shenzhen Hong Kong's mutual funds, the A shares may be net outflows, but the impact is minimal.

In the long run, whether the capital will show net inflow or net inflow in the north depends on the strong and weak relationship between Shenzhen and Hong Kong's two cities.

Shanghai Hong Kong Tong, which was opened in November 2014, provides a template for Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong.

Up to now, Shanghai and Hong Kong pass north to 300 billion yuan total.

The amount is only about 150 billion yuan, and the total utilization rate is only half. Compared with the 23 trillion yuan in Shanghai stock market, it accounts for less than 1% of the free circulation market value, and the daily average usage amount is less than 600 million yuan, and the daily average utilization rate is less than 5%.

Analysts believe that although the Shenzhen Hong Kong Tong can bring incremental capital to A shares, even if the total amount of the northern quota has reached 300 billion yuan, it will account for only 2% of the free circulation market value of about 15 trillion yuan in the Shenzhen market, which has limited impact on the A share stock game pattern.

At the same time, the valuation of Hang Seng index is about 20 times as far as valuation is concerned, while the Shenzhen stock index index has a price earnings ratio of about 35 times.