Du Kunwei: Economic Data Slow Cow Lays The Economic Foundation For Stock Market Slow Cow

Simply from the GDP data, 16 years, three quarters are 6.7%, highly consistent, but the stock market can not rise on the basis of GDP, more depends on the performance of listed companies growth, while the industrial added value in September is only 6.1%, less than 6.4% of the expected, do not know whether the GDP data is adulterated, or GDP flat did not bring about substantial improvement in industrial enterprises, but also lower than the growth rate of GDP, the micro economy is still very difficult, which makes the market worried about the level of performance of listed companies.

Rising is lacking in that spirit.

Where the industrial added value has not increased rapidly, where does the performance increase of listed companies come from? With their own valuations being higher, the three swordsmen of finance, the current price earnings ratio, is about 50 times.

This kind of valuation level must be called "slow cow", and it can only be said to be a "retort for new words."

Yesterday, thanks to the good external market, the major indexes opened slightly higher, the Shanghai stock market opened 0.01% higher, the Shenzhen stock market opened 0.5% higher, and the medium and small board opened 0.11% higher. Since then, the major stock indexes have been slightly oscillating, and the Shanghai Composite Index has been playing around the annual line. However, because of the decline in the prefix, the trend of financial three swordsmen is not strong, and Shanghai city is too green.

Then the major stock indexes began to fall back to green, but since then, they have been divided under the strong theme stocks such as high delivery and pfer.

Shanghai stock index reported 3084.46 points, down 0.01%, traded 177 billion 670 million yuan, Shenzhen composite index reported 10784.33 points, up 0.25%, clinch a deal 297 billion 290 million yuan, the gem index reported 2193.25 points, rose 0.38%, traded 84 billion 494 million yuan, two cities 44 shares (including ST shares) limit, the stock market limit, total turnover of $8 yuan, the last trading day was $8 billion.

Judging from the disk, the highest pfer rate is the biggest winner, with 9 stocks trading on the high side. In the large area of strong stocks such as high pfer and other stocks, the stock market in Tianjin has fallen by a large margin. In the past, the stock market has dropped by 6% in the closing period, and the closing rate has dropped by 4.36%. In terms of the investment opportunities in the Chinese stock market, the author does not highly approve of the participation in the hype, but it is understandable to take part in the hype, but too much risk is too high in the chase, and the hot topics such as the word "softer" and "high delivery" are going well.

According to the data released by the people's Bank of China in October 18th, new loans increased by 12200 yuan in September, an increase of 13% over the same period last year. The growth rate was flat at the end of last month; the scale of social financing increased by 17200 billion yuan, and the former value was 14697 billion yuan; the broad currency (M2) increased by 11.5% compared with the previous year, and the former value was 11.4%; the narrow sense currency (M1) increased by 24.7% compared to the previous year, and the former value was 25.3%.

The increase in credit data is only a 6.7% increase in GDP. Once the credit data is slowing down, where will the GDP increase? Will there be a slowdown? Therefore, it is worth discussing and observing the bottom of the economy.

The previous breakthrough year is November 5th, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange has traded 678 billion 700 million yuan on a unilateral basis. But after the breakthrough of the annual line, the volume has never been more than 678 billion 700 million yuan, but it has been shrinking gradually, so the stock index has lost the momentum of further rise. After maintaining more than 10 trading days near the annual line, it finally lost its line on the 27 day, and after that, it failed to break through the new year's line. At present, the volume of Shanghai stock market is less than 200 billion yuan, which is a little more than 30% at that time.

Bo, the stock index can only be reduced gradually, repeating the tragedy of last November.

Therefore, the current position is crucial to many parties. If a long time sideways can not break through the annual line, it will wipe out the confidence and strength of investors, and with the coming of the end of the month, the US presidential election will fluctuate, and the stock index's fall probability may increase. Once it falls, the early national team's efforts will also be destroyed, and it will not be very suitable during the important meetings. So today, the main force to start the financial three swordsman's support is not successful, but it also has stabilized the market position, basically has kept the Shanghai and Shenzhen index, and enabled the active capital to have a move to make speculation, so as to maintain the popularity.

For financial three swordsmen,

The scale is decreasing, the performance is not satisfactory, but there is a deep expectation of Hong Kong Tong and Shanghai Stock Exchange. It is easy to induce the market to follow the trend of speculation. If we really want to attack the annual line, the securities companies should have some actions. However, based on the uncertainty of future trend, the author only recognizes the establishment of a bargain from the security point of view, but does not recognize the pursuit of high operation, and only the low price of the warehouse can make capital arbitrage with the main dish. As for the bank, it should stabilize. From the perspective of investment value, the Bank of Ningbo is a good target, with good performance and good dishes. The bigger problem is that the market for bad loans is not worrying. It is hard to build up popularity. Insurance is a decline in return on assets under low interest rate policy, although securities firms are constrained by a small number of pactions and two

As long as the financial three swordsman set up, the theme can still be sung. As far as the subject matter is concerned, the focus is on sending high prices, or software information, intelligent machines and so on. We all rely on everyone's hobbies. At the moment, high turnover is more popular and more marketable, but there is no shortage of risks. Some stocks have dropped sharply today.

However, even if the attack line is successful and the line is stable, it does not mean that the author will recognize the slow or bull market. It is just a temporary trend of maintenance. In the current situation, the author does not recognize the trend of the slow bull market, nor does it recognize the bull market trend.

Because the valuation is too high, the pressure of new shares is very high, and monetary policy may be tightened moderately. If the Federal Reserve starts to enter the new interest rate cycle, the author does not think that the central bank will also raise interest rates moderately in the next 17 years, otherwise the RMB exchange rate will fall back hard to control and the capital outflow will be difficult to control.

At present, a hidden worry is that the central bank keeps showing the market to release a lot of liquidity. The periphery trend is good, but it can not break through the annual line. Once the central bank appropriately tightens the currency and the periphery weakens, the stock index will be hit by bad profits, and whether it can survive in the vicinity of the annual line is a problem that needs to be faced.

At that time, the word "digging holes" can change.

Approaching the current position is not the result of market competition. There may be merit in the maintenance fund.