RMB Depreciation And Foreign Trade Challenge: We Should Abandon Speculation When We Enter The Basket.

RMB's accession to SDR is a subjective and objective recognition of our future development opportunities as well as risks and challenges.

In the future, we need to enhance the effectiveness of reform and promote the opening of the market, which is not only to meet the above progress of international functions.

In particular, the current economic characteristics of China are cold and overheated, and the use of the renminbi as an economic tool should correspond to the actual economic development and demand of the symptomatic economy, and the development of the real economy is rational and practical. The potential of its monetary function should be directly linked to the progress and initiative of the foreign trade industry, especially the upgrading and upgrading of the products and the expansion of the region.

China's foreign trade holds up China's currency, and China's currency still needs China's foreign trade.

Combined with the exchange rate reform from July 2005 to August 2016, the basic factors of China's RMB are not strengthening but weakening. The foreign trade data are more thought-provoking.

According to data from China's Ministry of Commerce, the total import and export volume of China's goods trade in 2005 was 11 trillion and 690 billion yuan (RMB), an increase of 23.2% over the same period last year, of which exports grew by 28.4%, imports increased by 17.6%, and trade surplus amounted to 830 billion yuan.

In the first half of 2015, the total value of China's imports and exports was 11 trillion and 530 billion yuan, down 6.9% compared with the same period last year, of which exports were 6 trillion and 570 billion yuan, up 0.9% over the same period last year, and imports were 4 trillion and 960 billion yuan, down 15.5% compared to the same period last year. The trade surplus was 1 trillion and 610 billion yuan, expanding 1.5 times.

From the comparison of the ten years' trade data after the reform, we can see that China's foreign trade is contracting seriously and its growth level is decreasing. However, the surplus of foreign trade continues to increase, and the structural speculation factor can not be ignored.

Especially in the period of global excess liquidity, foreign invested enterprises forgery import and export volume to pfer funds.

Transnational corporations make use of their global internal related pactions to pfer profits through the foreign price increase and price reduction in real cases, thus affecting the authenticity and competitiveness of the trade surplus.

Though China's

Relatively strong, but the rapid growth of domestic investment, and the rapid growth of foreign direct investment brought by the international division of labor, China's production capacity has increased many complex factors, the industrial chain and financial circles are intertwined and fused seriously.

More importantly, it is the international shortage or unwilling processing trade that accounts for 60% of the total volume of China's exports.

In addition, the demand for goods produced by China in the international market is relatively large. Due to the restriction of the overall economic development level, labor-intensive is still the basic characteristic of China's current production.

The proportion of international trade surplus of foreign trade enterprises has increased sharply, which is the result of the layout of China's industrial industry. The injury of low level, low level and low efficiency is worth paying attention to and reforming.

Although China has become a major trading power in the world, it is far from a trading power. The fundamental reason is that its product quality competitiveness is not strong enough, and it lacks the brand with high technology content, high added value and high international reputation.

Statistics show that labour intensive products account for about 62.9% of China's manufactured industrial exports.

Due to the continuous intensification of technical barriers to trade and developed stringent technical standards in developed countries, the failure rate of many products in China is very high, and the loss of defective goods such as rework, reprocessing, scrap and so on is too high. Thus, the cost of products is increased, and the international competitiveness of products is significantly reduced.

In particular, China's imports fell by 5.7% in July, and its deterioration exceeded expectations.

Grasping China's foreign trade is a way out and opportunity to promote economic structural adjustment and industrial upgrading and upgrading. Only foreign trade is an important starting point to help China's economy. Investment promotion is too early, and consumption promotion base is insufficient.

After the "8.11 exchange reform", China's foreign exchange market has changed greatly and has made great progress, including the perfection and integrity of the monetary system construction, the expansion of the market paction subjects, the clear combination of the bidding mechanism, and the firmness and flexibility of price adjustment.

The economic cycle and law of the three carriages of export, investment and consumption must have the order of proportions, primary and secondary relations and logical levels. This is not only the basic law of economic laws and stages, but also the natural laws and basic principles of any country's real economy and the development of virtual finance.

To do foreign trade, to strengthen foreign trade and to save foreign trade and to grasp foreign trade is a country's weak to strong experience. It is also the inevitable process of facing economic cycle and economic problems. It is also the development factor and direction of reform that must be paid attention to at the moment in China.

For foreign trade, the economy is a new requirement and new change for technological development, market development and innovation and expansion.

Returning to traditional trade and boosting industrial and real economy is not a simple return, but a brand new start.

In particular, facing the experience of RMB appreciation for a long time, the impact of foreign trade is self-evident.

The change is not only a retrogression in the scale and strength of development, but also seriously disrupts the confusion of development logic and the development of primary and secondary. The focus of future development should not only solve the industry's technological level, brand capability, and innovation consciousness, but also face the three pressures of market shrinkage, share competition and market development. China's foreign trade will face severe challenges in the future, and the position and direction of economic core will remain unchanged.

No matter in the past or now, the important tool of foreign trade is exchange rate. The principle of currency devaluation promoting foreign trade and currency appreciation will hurt foreign trade.

China's foreign trade has been accompanied by a eight year appreciation process, and its growth rate has dropped from 40% to less than 2%.

What is more serious is that this process hurts not only industry, but also the industry industry. The main reason of concentrating on finance, investment and speculation is to abandon the main production and main business.

Recalling the rise of China's foreign trade, the exchange rate is very important for trade protection, relatively stable monetary mechanism, exchange rate level and

The primary and secondary connections are accurate and effective.

Among them, the less important is the fundamental, the experience and the core interest.

The impact of exchange rate on trade is the most direct and the biggest risk.

Therefore, we must face the reality and anticipate the future, especially find our own characteristics and needs, thoroughly demonstrate the internal and external factors and environment, see clearly the relationship between exchange rate and industry, rationally and professionally assess the future monetary outlook.

At present, the fluctuation of RMB is increasing rapidly, and the market is confused and chaotic, but its relative stability is more obvious.

How to interpret and anticipate the challenges to the RMB is very great. Unnecessary panic anticipation will not be conducive to China's economic adjustment and cycle pition.

Therefore, how to divest the complex situation of global currency, rationally and rationally evaluate the prospect of RMB, and grasp and coordinate the basic elements of the exchange rate range are very important.

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