Cotton, Polyester Staple And Other Raw Materials Will Push The Whole Textile Industry Chain Forward

Before the Spring Festival, cotton prices will be consolidated and bottomed out. The market will go up with the turn of cotton reserves in March 6, 2017. Cotton and polyester staple will promote the entire textile and garment industry chain.

From the survey point of view, at present, there is a big difference in the mentality of the cotton enterprises within the territory. Some ginning plants are eager to sell their products and strive to achieve "double knot zero" before the end of February 2017. Some ginning plants are reluctant to tighten up the "double 28", "double 2" and "double 30" cotton resources (including machine picked cotton), and the enthusiasm for short term pfer to the mainland and the offer for sale is not high enough, waiting for the opportunity of domestic cotton prices "not to be seen, and soaring to the sky" after 2017 March.

2016/17 for the year

Some institutions and cotton enterprises believe that the probability of breaking up 17000 yuan / ton, 18000 yuan / ton is relatively large.

Cotton prices rose steadily in November, breaking through 16021 yuan per ton.

Recently, the domestic cotton market has finally stabilized.

As of 19 days, the spot price pick up price in Xinjiang area "double 29" and "double 30" price were 16000-16200 yuan / ton, and the local actual paction price could be discussed.

The pick up price of machine picked cotton within the platform is "double 28" at 15500-15600 yuan / ton.

In particular, the recent Cotton Subsidy in Xinjiang has brought good news to cotton.

As of 19, the the Yellow River River Basin and the Yangtze River valley cotton grade 3128 cotton bales at 15700-15800 yuan / ton, small cotton price 14500-15300 yuan / ton, the market fluctuated slightly, overall stable.

Information from relevant government departments, research institutes and enterprises shows that in 2016/17

The "tight balance" of supply and demand is a consensus, but how tight is it? How should we calculate the balance account of cotton in China?

1, output: we all have a bottom line. This is because with the acquisition and processing of cotton and the progress of public inspection, the error of domestic cotton output estimation in 2016 is getting smaller and smaller, and the output interval of 470-480 million tons has gradually been recognized and used by the industry.

2. Import: there is no need to speculate on the import quota of cotton in 2017. Only 894 thousand tons of 1% tariff quotas, processing trade and sliding tariff quota issuance expectations have been shattered, even with the largest import volume, 2016/17

The total import volume will not exceed 1 million 200 thousand tons (1-10 months in 2016, China's total import of 696 thousand and 300 tons of cotton, of which 41 thousand and 300 tons were imported in October, therefore, as at the end of September, the remaining quota was about 300 thousand tons in 2016).

3, reserve cotton rotation: according to the announcement of the national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of finance, the new cotton market will not be arranged until the end of February next year (until the end of next year). In 2017, the sale of cotton reserves will start from March 6th. The time limit for the sale will be temporarily set at the end of August, and the daily sales volume will be temporarily suspended by 30 thousand tons. Taking into account the situation of the earlier stage of the auction, it will be estimated that if the daily turnover of 20 thousand tons is calculated, the turnover volume of the paction will be about 250-260 million tons (the expected rate is less than 35%), so that the total supply will be 470+120+250=840 million tons.

2016/17 domestic cotton supply or more than 50-60 million tons (such as cotton auction hot, volume or up to 3 million tons, the supply is nearly 1 million tons), but taking into account this year's cotton quality and spinnability are low; Xinjiang Southern Xinjiang hand picked cotton overall fracture strength, length, horse performance is not satisfactory and the quality of round cotton reserves are uncertain, so high grade and high quality Xinjiang cotton or rebound after May.

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