Take Stock Of The Luxury Market Every Year: Where The Chinese Market Goes.

According to the world clothing and shoe net, after the financial crisis in 2008, annual inventory is estimated.

The market can be summed up in one sentence: where the wind blows, and where the grass falls; where is the Chinese?

Turn to where.

2016 is no exception. The "Chinese style" is still the most important feature.

However, under this premise, there are still some trends worth writing every year, such as the Hongkong market that once used to the luxury industry, the process of going from heaven to hell in the past three years.

Because of the special system, Chinese people are born with insecurity. The sense of insecurity of the rich will not be eliminated because of money. On the contrary, it may be more intense.

Because there are too many unspeakable overnight wealth in China, and there are many inexplicable jailed.

The rich are the most stable driving force in the luxury market, and China's richest are the most horsepower engines in the luxury market.

Since 2012, the anti corruption of the Chinese government and the recent "barbarian" remarks by Liu Shiyu, the "speaker of the SFC", are the sword of Damour Kris hanging on the head of the Chinese rich.

However, most people are aware that as long as China's economy can maintain a relatively high growth rate, the real estate bubble will not break up. Even if Damour's sword falls, it will be hung up again after killing some people.

But this situation makes everyone trembling, because it is full of uncertainty and uncertainty, which is one of the biggest characteristics of the luxury market in 2016.

Uncertainty aggravated

At the end of June, before the British referendum was launched, the odds of the country's gambling websites leaving Europe were as low as 1.10, and the European Union's odds were 26.

But in the end, the referendum turned out to be Europe.

4 months later, the US general election came again.

Similar to the referendum, Trump won the election with a more exaggerated performance than he did in the reality show apprenticeship.

The British pound continued to depreciate sharply, becoming the most prosperous market in the second half of 2016, and a large number of tourists flooded into London to snap up the world's lowest price luxury goods.

Trump won the election in the US election, letting the retail industry worry that its earlier tariff raising and protectionist remarks will further crack down on the weak retail market in the US once it is implemented.

The impact of the depreciation of the pound on the luxury goods is greater than the depreciation of the renminbi.

No Agency, the luxury industry research institute, raised the growth rate of China's luxury market in 2016 to 6% by the end of October, while the end of 2015 was expected to be -2% - 0%.

The double digit depreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar and the appreciation of the yen made Chinese consumers continue to increase the luxury consumption in the UK market in 2016. The growth rate of consumption in other European mainstream markets began to decline, including the impact of terrorist attacks.

In 2016, a large number of uncertainties occurred in the political, economic and financial markets.

Although there are certain expectations for the referendum, the US general election and the devaluation of the renminbi, it is not thought that Britain is really out of Europe and Trump is really elected, and that the RMB is likely to break 7.

This uncertainty has no doubt affected the regional luxury market very much, so that when the luxury industry released its three quarter earnings this year, no company or brand dared to make any predictions based on the rebound in the Chinese market during the quarter.

Tourism market tends to be stable

In 2016, the luxury market is reversing under the premise of "Chinese style".

There is no doubt that the tourism market is the most important market in the luxury industry in the past three years. For this reason, there were many major pactions in the tax exempt industry in 2015.

In a report released this year, Credence, a research firm, said that the retail sector of the luxury goods industry will reach US $90 billion in 2020.

The Chinese consume 1/3 of the world's luxury goods, while about 70% of Chinese luxury goods are overseas (including Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan). Therefore, the luxury tourism retail channel is not a big surprise.

In 2016, DFS's first European store in Hongkong opened in Venice. At the same time, Europe's nine shopping village operators Value Retail and Florentia Village Florence town operator RDM RDM are actively distributing the Chinese market.

But without exception, the driving force behind this is Chinese consumers. The outlet shopping village operators or chain duty-free operators want to stimulate Chinese consumers' consumption as far as possible in China's domestic and overseas markets.

The balanced layout of the global luxury industry is obviously conducive to the steady development of the regional markets. Although the sharp fluctuation of exchange rate has intensified the development of the tourism retail market in the past few years, in 2016, we saw that the yen revalued and the renminbi depreciated sharply.

As the most important Hongkong market linking mainland China, its luxury goods sales in October only declined by 0.1%, the best since September 2014.

Hongkong's luxury market is unlikely to reproduce the golden age of ten years after its liberalization, but its position is still second only to New York.

Another important argument is that although the assets of the middle class in China have improved, the debt rate has also increased. Due to the high housing prices and the stock market downturn, the ratio of disposable income to total assets of the class has actually declined, which will inhibit the luxury consumption ability of the group and make the growth of the tourism market slow down and stabilize.

Hard and extravagant

The weakest market for luxury goods in 2016 is undoubtedly the Hongkong market. Hongkong's hard luxury market is weaker than the Hongkong market. The 26 consecutive quarterly decline is unprecedented.

In addition, Hongkong is the largest export market of Rui table, accounting for about 15%.

As of October, the export of Rui table has been falling for 16 consecutive months.

It was the first time in November that Vacheron Constantin brand watchmaker of the city has been protesting against the group's layoffs.

In the past one hundred years, the "values" that the clock and jewelry industry has been trying to shape is gradually being dispelled by the younger generation and the new way of life. In particular, the development of the technology industry's huge floods and floods has made the two industries less expensive than GPS and LBS.

In September, Apple Corp's annual new product conference announced that Tim Cook, known as Apple Watch, has become the second largest watch brand after Rolex.

On the other side, a number of Rui meter brands were forced to sell, and at the same time, the list of embracing technology was also increasing. Even in November, the group carried out the largest management reorganization in 8 years, with the aim of embracing the digital age.

Tiffany, the representative of the jewelry industry, has also been overshadowed in the past two years. His blue box is dim in front of Pandora, the Danish jewellery brand.

Of course, the real reason for being hard and extravagant is the most direct relationship with the global economic slump. These really expensive luxuries are the least needed in the era of cautious consumption.

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