PTA Staged A New Round Of Vertical Decline, But The Supporting Force At The Cost End Remains

Due to the price drop of main raw materials PTA and MEG, and the impact of the accumulation of polyester product inventory around the Spring Festival, the profit of mainstream products has declined significantly in the near future, and the willingness of polyester factories to start work has eased. The operating rate has declined slightly by about 1 percentage point recently. As of March 17, the operating rate of polyester factories was 86.2%. However, with the arrival of peak season, the demand of the terminal weaving and texturing industry has entered a seasonal increase stage, and the rigid demand for raw materials is maintained, which is conducive to stabilizing the operating rate of polyester plants and promoting the digestion of polyester product inventory, and is conducive to improving the supply and demand pattern of PTA.

The cost side, especially the sharp fall in international oil prices, is the main factor that has dragged down the price of PTA futures. The contradiction between the implementation of the OPEC production reduction agreement and the increase of US production and inventory levels has affected the market for a long time. However, as the OPEC production reduction information is gradually digested, the oil price has fallen below the narrow operating range for more than two months, and the market focus has shifted to the US. However, given that the spot refinery profits in the United States have stabilized and the refinery overhaul season is nearing the end, the crude oil in the next two months is expected to enter the destocking stage.

The decline in oil prices also dragged down the PX price correction. As of March 17, the spot price of PX in Asia was 852.5 dollars/ton FOB South Korea and 872.5 dollars/ton CFR China, both down 41 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, but the decline was far less than the oil price, which was mainly based on the impact of intensive maintenance of PX devices in Asia in the second quarter.

This year, the global PX new capacity is expected to exceed 4 million tons, from Production time It can be seen that most of the devices are expected to be launched in the second half of the year (not excluding the possibility of delay). Since the impact of the new capacity on the market in the first half of the year is relatively limited, the operation of the existing devices has become the focus of the market. Centralized maintenance and reduction of spot supply support PX prices to remain firm. The performance of the price difference between PX and naphtha also verifies this to some extent. The price difference level is now more than 400 dollars/ton, which is expected to maintain stable operation, and even may continue to increase.

At present, the 900000 ton unit of Pengwei Petrochemical, which was put into operation in February, is in stable operation, bringing a certain increase to the market supply. The restart time of Far East Petrochemical and Xianglu Petrochemical is planned to be from May to July, which has relatively limited impact on the actual market supply in the first half of the year. From the perspective of plant start-up, the comprehensive operating rate of domestic PTA in March was stable at 74% - 77%, and now only the 600000 ton plant in Fujian Jialong is in Maintenance status The overall operation level of PTA device is high.

However, as far as the processing price difference is concerned, due to the recent fall in PTA prices, the spot processing price difference has also been quickly repaired, and once fell to below 300 yuan/ton from the highest level of over 700 yuan/ton in mid February. in recent years Processing price The difference is basically maintained at 300-600 yuan/ton. It is estimated that there is little room for further compression, which will support the PTA price. At the same time, the repair of processing price difference may reduce the willingness of PTA factory to start work. The latest news shows that the 2.2 million ton unit of Hengli Petrochemical Line 3 is scheduled to be overhauled from March 25 to April 6, and Yisheng Dalian Petrochemical, which has the same intention of spring overhaul, also deserves attention. Once the overhaul is implemented, it will benefit the PTA trend.

Last week, the inventory performance of some polyester filament products fell by a narrow margin compared with the previous week. Among them, the mainstream inventory of polyester DTY is 27 days, down 1.5 days; Polyester FDY inventory was 23 days, down 0.3 days; Polyester POY inventory is 20 days, 2 days more than the previous week. In addition, the new polyester production capacity this year is mainly put into production in the first half of the year, which will support PTA to some extent. Although the supply and demand pattern of PTA is still loose, its processing price difference has further compressed space to support the consolidation of low futures prices. However, with the stable operation of oil price and PX price, and the expectation of demand in peak season for the improvement of supply and demand pattern, PTA futures prices have a certain rebound momentum. The operating range of the main 1705 contract is between 5000 yuan and 5400 yuan/ton. It is recommended to pay attention to the changes in international oil prices and the operation of PTA devices.

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