Only In The Bear Market Will Regulators Suspend IPO.

As we all know, "policy city" and "retail market" are the two deadly holes in the A share market. There are not many options, only single election: the first level market is "de administration" and the two level market is "decentralized". In December 19, 1990, the Chinese stock market was officially opened and the Shanghai Composite Index started at 100. In April 13, 1992, the Shanghai composite index began to rise rapidly from around 390, and reached a record high of 1429 in May 1992. On the same day, the total turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities was only 511 million yuan. The first bull market of A shares ended on 30 trading days, and the market jumped 276%. In November 11, 1992, the Shanghai composite index returned to its original form and closed at 390 o'clock. On the same day, the total turnover of two cities in Shanghai and Shenzhen was 165 million 500 thousand yuan on the same day. From 390 points to 1429 points and then back to 390, only 7 months to run a round of bull and bear cycles. This is the first round of bull and bear alternation experienced after the establishment of the Chinese stock market. This is a typical "flash bull": inflation is bound to plummet.

Then, a new round of mad cow attacked again. From the 390 point in November 11, 1992, it began to pull up vigorously. It reached a record high of 1558 points in February 1993, and 1 billion 990 million yuan on the day. The second round of A shares took only 3 months. After that, a big bear market was launched. After a year and a half of A shares fell, in July 29, 1994, the Shanghai Composite Index hit the lowest point since February 18, 1992, 325 points in February 1993. The A share market has been established for three and a half years, and has completed two bull and bear cycles. This is a rare "fast bull" and "short bull" in the world. The so-called "suspension of IPO" was born under such a market background. At that time, the A share was only a "super pocket board". In 1993, there were 124 A shares IPO, and the total fund-raising was 19 billion 500 million yuan. At the end of the year, the number of A shares listed companies was 177, which was 3 times the end of the previous year, but the total market value of A shares was only 330 billion yuan, of which, the circulation market value was lower, only 68 billion 300 million yuan, and it was not as good as the 1/6 of the A share spanaction (about 400000000000 yuan) of the bear market today.

However, in the first 7 months of 1994, there were 110 A shares IPO, and the total fund-raising was only 4 billion 960 million yuan, but in the background of poor money and poor investors, the stock market fell all the way. On Friday, July 29, 1994, the Shanghai stock index went down at 333, and the total turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities was only 689 million yuan on the same day, which means that a large number of IPO had far exceeded the capacity of the "pocket" market. In July 30, 1994, the regulatory authorities promulgated the "three major rescue policies": suspension and issuance of new shares during the year; strictly controlling the size of the rights issue of listed companies; and expanding the scope of the capital market. This is the first three and a half years after the A share market was established, and the first "rescue the market" mode and the "suspension IPO" mode. This is the last resort under the background of "pocket total market value" and "super pocket tradable shares". However, the "suspension of IPO" has been deeply labeled or branded as "bailout". Once it forms an inertial thinking and a dependent mentality, it will become unmanageable.

Since then, China's stock market has also fallen into the root of the "save the market" old disease and the "suspension of IPO": whenever the stock price falls sharply, investors will ask the government to "rescue the market" with one voice, forcing the regulators to "suspend IPO". Otherwise, they will threaten or abuse the chairman of the SFC, and even someone will pull a banner and shout slogans to protest. Since then, investors have developed a high degree of "alcohol dependence" or even "opium addiction" to the "IPO suspension" bailout, while regulators are often forced to take the lead and form a vicious circle and market expectations of "suspending IPO" and "restarting IPO". In China's stock market, the "IPO suspension" is alcohol dependence or opium addiction? There has been no correct answer. Because alcohol dependence can be quit, while opium addiction may be incurable and incurable. In fact, in the short period of 20 years since the opening of China's stock market, our regulators have closed the first tier market of A shares for 9 times, and the total time taken to close the primary market has been 5 and a half years. This is the most direct manifestation of inefficiency or inefficiency in the market.

History has repeatedly proved that suspending the IPO does not change the basic trend of the market. On the contrary, once the IPO is suspended, it will strengthen the bear market expectation, because the shareholders have reached a high degree of consensus: only when they enter the bear market, will regulators suspend IPO. The essence of the original IPO approval system is the administrative examination and approval system. Not only is the examination and approval procedure cumbersome, cumbersome and inefficient, but also the queuing time is longer than two or three years. If we catch up with the "suspension IPO", the long queues will lose all their work and finally be left with half a life. What is this IPO? It has become the "gate of hell" of enterprises. A bad result: first, the formation of IPO dammed lake, long queues waiting for IPO to pass the business as many as more than 1000 enterprises, can not see the end, also can not see the hope, which makes IPO approves thousands of gold hard to find, IPO is worth a hundred times; two is system arbitrage, curved overtaking, many enterprises do not want to queue up, they go directly to the two class market to rush to buy junk shell "shell", through the reverse takeover disguised backdoor listing, which makes the junk share price 100 times, backdoor, shell, shell shell, gambling shell become A stock singing and terminal illness, at the same time, it also makes garbage shares can not be dignified delisting, seriously distort the stock market resource allocation, survival of the fittest function. Moreover, due to the frequent "suspension of IPO", the primary market will be closed at will. This is a repeated toss to the A share market. It will inevitably bring about two.

The last time for A shares to close the primary market: from July 2015 to November 2015, this is the "suspension of IPO" after the 2015 stock market crash. It is also the shortest time to close the primary market. 4 months later, at the end of November 2015, the securities and Futures Commission "resumed IPO" in 2015. In February 2016, Liu Shiyu took up the post of chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission. In February 29th, after the second A bottom 2638 points, it began to bottom up, followed by 2800 points in the market. At the same time, the SFC began to steadily and steadily push forward the preparatory work of registration system reform, further strengthening information. disclosure system We should strictly investigate and crack down on securities crimes.

Under the enclosure of the examination and approval system, the SFC gradually accelerated the pace of IPO, and responded to the myth that the purchase of new shares was less than 1/10000, and the myth of the two or thirty trading boards on the new stock market. In order to solve the problem of IPO barrier lake, and to meet the huge demand of the new market, the pace of IPO approval was obviously accelerated. The rhythm of IPO was changed from one batch per month to half a month. From July of last year, the number of new shares increased, and from November last year, IPO began to speed up again and became a batch of every Monday, and has continued to the present day, so far, the IPO has been on the move. This phenomenon is praised by the market as "IPO new normal", or IPO normalization. At the end of 11 2016, the Shanghai Composite Index reached 3300 points. In February 10, 2017, the national securities and futures supervision conference was convened at the SFC organ. President Liu Shiyu's speech and for the first time publicly expounded his new regulatory philosophy: "six stability, six entry". Among them, "six stability" is the most important thing: marketization, rule of law, internationalization of the direction of reform does not deviate, this is the most stable. The core tenet of "six in" is to enhance the ability of capital market to serve the real economy and national strategy. This is the most fundamental step. This is a regulatory concept with top-level design.

President Liu Shiyu believes that the core function of the capital market is financing. "The stability of stock index and the strength of financing cannot be antagonistic". This is the first time that the SFC has made a clear decision. IPO The rhythm is cut off from the rise and fall of the stock index and no longer tied up. This is not a slogan, but a long march manifesto. It is a practical action of setting an example. I believe that this speech has released a very important policy signal: first, the normalization of IPO means that the SFC will no longer suspend IPO because of market fluctuations, and will close the primary market at will. Second, IPO rhythm normalization, the purpose is "bite teeth, ensure quality companies can be listed in time, in 2-3 years to solve IPO barrier lake." Third, the normalization of IPO can not only serve the real economy, but also effectively crack down on the shell game, so that the price of junk stocks can return to the floor.

In fact, the normalization of IPO is not only to solve the problem of IPO barrier lake, but also to meet the huge demand of investors for new and new speculation. At the same time, it is also an inherent requirement of registration system reform. Registration system reform is a major reform that the Central Committee has decided and the NPC has authorized. The IPO registration system is the crystallization of the spirit of marketization, legalization and internationalization. Its essence is the "de administration" of the primary market, the reduction of the IPO market attribute, the downplay of the substantive judgment of the regulators' investment value to the IPO enterprises, and the strengthening of the mutual restraint between the sellers' responsibility and the buyer's conceit, so that the market players can take their responsibilities and make their respective responsibilities, so that the regulators can concentrate their efforts on the supervision and management of the market crimes. This is the whole meaning and real meaning of registration system.

Because of the bull market that lasted for 8 years, " Trump Quotes In the beginning of April this year, the Shanghai composite index again rushed to the 3300 point and failed to return. After that, the market value of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index dropped sharply, and the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3150 points. For this reason, some big V jumped out and shouted. They objected to the "strong supervision" and "reduce the new rules" in the name of the market. Some people shouted the threat slogans of "rescuing the market" and "suspending IPO". Are these people habitually "alcohol dependence" or are they hopeless "opium addiction"? "The end of the end", the Fed's contraction of the table and the expectation of US dollar interest rate hike.

In the European and American stock market, there may be a "save the market" action in three or fifty years, and almost every three or five months in the Chinese stock market, there is a big V jumping out to shout "rescue the market" as a joke. But it is very gratifying to note that the regulators headed by President Liu Shiyu have resisted the pressure of the market noise and interest groups, did not shut down the primary market, did not suspend the IPO, but moderately slowed the pace of IPO. We hope that the SFC will stick to the direction and unwavering market reform and never close the A share market. At present, the success rate of new shares purchase is still at 1/10000 lows, and even after the new IPO is listed, it needs to pull at least four or five more daily trading boards. Under such a big demand for new and new speculation, some big V actually keep their eyes open, and shout "anti IPO" anti market slogans. I suggest that in the following two situations, we should consider moderation to slow down the pace of IPO, but we must not shut down the primary market. First, if the success rate of new shares purchase is raised from the current 1/10000 to 1% or 10%, we can consider slowing down the IPO rhythm moderately. Second, if there is a "break" on the first day of IPO, we can consider slowing down the pace of IPO moderately. This recommendation is for reference by regulators.

For more information, please pay attention to the world clothing shoes and hats and Internet cafes.