Big Data Tells You "Double Eleven" How Much Is Appropriate?

In July 2014, Feng Min made a bold decision to open a net red shop named "Berlin" with the 27 year old girl, Zhang Dayi.

That is what is known as the predecessor of the cult.

According to the world clothing shoes and hats net, in 2016, during the "double eleven" period, Zhang Dayi's Taobao shop sold more than 100 million yuan, and created a sales record of Taobao's live room with a turnover of nearly 20 million yuan in 2 hours.

And by netizens crown think "the first network of electric business is known as red".

In addition, "

"World War I" not only promoted the net red business company behind it, such as Han, but also made the net red.

Speed up development.

It is understood that such holdings include Zhang daiyi, Dajin, Li Bei Lin, aunt Guan and many other famous net red.

China Statistics Bureau data show that China's e-commerce volume reached 641 billion yuan in June 2017, an increase of 37% over the same period last year. As a branch, the development of net Hong electric supplier with high viscosity fans is even more alarming.

According to AI consulting data, in the second quarter of 2017, the size of the net Hong Kong electricity supplier is expanding, which is 106.9% higher than that of the same period last year, and the sales volume of goods has increased by 171.4%.

"Net red is in front, factory behind" is the media summary of a group of net red shops represented by such as Han and Ti Su, that is, the business mode of "net red + Incubator + supply chain", which means that besides the cultivation and operation of red people, the supply chain of the back end is also the most important.

Net red in front, factory behind

The more than 40 minute drive from Hangzhou is the Chinese electricity supplier.

The supply chain, such as its headquarters, is in a garment industrial park on the road of red Pu north. On the eve of eleven, employees like Han are making the final impact.

"We have always wanted to combine supply chain resources with such a good supplier in China."

Hangzhou's Cmi Holdings Ltd co founder Li Shang Zhen believes that China does not lack good suppliers and supply chains, but they do not cooperate with Hong Kong Electric providers, but rather serve the country's brand.

In the past few years, he has been working with all kinds of factories, to the global model factory of UNIQLO, to dozens of workshops, but Li believes that there is a great gap between the matching of the supply chain and the supply chain.

"From the perspective of the whole retail business, the demand for this kind of red supply chain is not only a matter of net red shop," said Yuan Wei, general manager of Amoy factory of China's domestic trade department, Alibaba. Now it is more defined as a new demand change in the whole supply chain, which appears in the process of massive online small and medium sized brands rising.

The change of demand should start from the area where the supply chain of the Internet and the traditional supply chain exist in the front and rear ends.

At the front end, the first is embodied in product development.

The traditional supply chain is from a fabric enterprise to a style enterprise, and plans to move forward, emphasizing the series and the story of its own brand.

Net red products can be understood as a form of buyer's shop. It can be created by integrating twenty or thirty brand styles.

Its complexity is much higher than that of traditional brands, because it will involve more fabrics and accessories.

Secondly, the net red supply chain plan is relatively weak, because there will always be a new style, inspiration or demand combination to make its own brand matching, so there is a need to have a rapid reaction speed, not only in the production process, but in the early stage of R & D.

In the back-end sales link, the biggest difference between the Internet and the traditional clothing brands is that the data, user reviews and user feedback can be collected in time.

In addition, there are two kinds of sales models for the electricity supplier: selling through the new ones; through the pre-sale, once the new feedback is very good, organize the list immediately.

So online retail platforms are beginning to show the rise of small and medium-sized brands. These small brands are different from UNIQLO and only, which know how to make use of the bonus of Internet traffic, that is, aggregated fans.

They not only require very strong operational capability, but also have strong ability to operate customers.

Yuan Wei said this is a common phenomenon in the industry.

On the one hand, it reflects the upgrading from a single purchase to a private brand, so the net red phenomenon has spawned the rise of massive small and medium sized brands, and the demand behind the net red supply chain is the universal appeal of the small and medium-sized brands rising on mass online.

Traditional brands are leading the trend.

No plan is bad for the supply chain, but it is not necessarily bad for brands and consumers.

This may be explained by the strong stickiness of nethong and nethong's fans.

That is, to configure new products in real time according to the needs of consumers in the current market. Net Hong electric supplier is very important to follow the trend.

The traditional brand operation is to plan the fashion color and plan the whole series a year in advance, with the purpose of leading the trend.

Yuan Wei said that with the characteristics of fire buying, the rise of mass medium and small brands is much faster than that of traditional brands. "Today, 30% of the market share is still growing.

"

But the supply chain has not yet catered to this trend.

In the past few years, a large number of wholesale markets have been bred through the rapid development of the supply chain and the support system behind the wholesale market, but today, because of consumption upgrades, both the price and quality of goods have improved more than three years ago, and they are also accelerating.

This is not only a matter of industry, but also an opportunity for the future of the industry.

Yuan Wei said, "when we find that China has produced more than ZARA times the volume of the market, there are countless times the number of ZARA retail outlets.

However, in China, there has not been such a powerful production and supply system that can produce and serve as many direct retail outlets as ZARA. In the next three years, a new supply chain service platform that can be characterized by new technologies and new modes is likely to emerge in various key industries.

And this industry opportunity will probably have nearly 400 billion modulus demand by 2020.

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"People with massive customer service capabilities and vertical supply chain integration capabilities will occupy the market in the next three years."

Take the overcoat as an example, Li Shang Town is the future development direction of the integration of wool and woolen design, development and production, and quick return capacity.

With the ability to integrate from raw materials to the entire production system, there is an opportunity to achieve real flexibility.

This is probably not a factory behind the enterprise, maybe there is a factory group.

Big data tells you "double eleven" how much is appropriate?

In July and August of each year, merchants began to plan for planning the merchandise category and quantity of double eleven, and factories began producing orders for stocking "double eleven".

The Jiangxi Qinggong city is no exception, as the traditional Chinese down clothing production area, the city of Qingdao gathered more than 500 down garment factory.

The shortage of stocks and heavy cargo are the most troublesome problems for the electricity suppliers every year. Once the "double eleven" sales are lower than expected, they will sell stocks for a long time. On the contrary, if they are higher than expected, there will be double 12 of the merchandise purchased from the double 11, and the loss of credibility will lead to the loss of customers. Eleven

Such examples can be found everywhere. In 2016, Hangzhou Xia Shang clothing was "double eleven" in 2016, and the overall product stocking ratio exceeded 70%. Due to the serious late loading, the sales rate was only over 60%, leading to difficulties in capital flow.

It is reported that Hangzhou Xia Shang clothing manages Tmall No.1Dara, the annual sales volume is 4~5 billion.

According to Li Shang Zhen, such as Han holdings is essentially a technology service company, providing technical services for net red, increasing investment in technology application, and forecasting demand through big data technology through technological progress and mode innovation.

According to Shao Zhenxing, managing director of Junlian capital, such as Han holdings, at present, such as Han electric business has begun to use artificial intelligence and big data technology to pform traditional supply chain in the upstream design and supply chain of clothing.

"Today, the market is faced with the fact that there is no plan for the retail end, and the two is that the production supply side must have plans, and there are differences between the two ends, so the platform needs data."

Yuan Wei said that the main task of Amoy factory is three aspects: the first is to provide supply chain diagnosis model, the core is to use Taobao, Tmall system retail big data, do mass demand for small and medium brands clustering.

The second is to do in-depth inspection. It is emphasized that all businesses and factories must line the paction data online. The underlying data is to collect data from the actual business of the supply chain service providers for screening. The third is precise matching, which is based on the grasp of the retail data and the grasp of the data in the production supply side.

Precise matching, for example, will lead to more data from the retail side to the production side, and help the production side prepare for some planning.

For example, 2 thousand stores sell 800 yuan down garments. According to the two thousand stores this week, the panning factory will estimate the inventory of two days' quick return needs.

"I want to sell twenty thousand units, but I may only make 50% stock in advance.

The factory side will be notified to integrate the surface accessories, and decide whether to purchase additional products according to the effect of the pre-sale and collection, and how much to add. The production capacity will start to be gradually arranged, and then according to the "double eleven" delivery timeliness, we will control the delivery rhythm, so that the turnover rate of the goods to the warehouse and then to the customers will be greatly enhanced, and the funds can also be returned.

Tang Xiangquan, director of supply chain of Hangzhou Xia Shang Clothing Co., Ltd. (Tmall NO1DARA brand), wants to reduce the stock rate of this year's "double eleven" to 50% through the factory of Qingdao city.

In order to keep pace with this speed, the 9 down coats factories in the city have changed the past big water into small streams, and the production links of 9 people have been compressed into 7 people.

At the same time, it can also share capacity and serve as backup for each other.

Inventory is the most painful thing for a loading company.

Before contacting the Internet, Shen Xianwen, chairman of Jiangxi Jiaxin Garments Co., Ltd., like most local businesses, did OEM for foreign brands.

"Before, our orders were mainly foreign trade, and in the past two years, due to the economic environment and foreign trade situation, orders have been reduced a lot."

Compared with tens of thousands of orders placed under traditional lines, there are thousands of online orders, with only a few dozen or fewer items.

"The most painful thing for clothing companies is inventory."

Shen Xianwen said that in the traditional large order production line, and half a year ahead of stock preparation.

Focusing on one data is the selling rate, which means that the market can be predicted in half a year.

The general sale rate is only 30% or 40%, and the remaining 60% becomes stock, which is the most horrible place for clothing enterprises.

"Now the flexible supply chain is a slight increase in the cost of a single order, and in the cost control of enterprises, because of the drop in inventory and the ability to seize more sales opportunities, it also makes the flow of funds increase faster."

"But more importantly, cash flow."

Shen Xian stressed that the traditional line orders mostly use the "credit" mode, the account period is too long or even there is no money, "the order accounts for a long time, for example, three months, five months, half a year is not given, or even a year do not give."

"Now, before the production starts, the deposit will be received, and the remaining amount will be received within 3 days of completion. Even if the merchant forget to pay the balance, the system will be automatically deducted within 15 days, which will protect our capital chain."

Now the cooperation mode between the factory and the brand is that the Amoy factory pays 30% deposit, and the final payment will be placed on the platform before shipment. After the brand operator receives the goods for 15 days, the money will be automatically played out after checking the problem.

If the brand does not fight, it will be handled by the insurance company. This ensures the safety and speed of capital turnover.

In addition, there are documentary experts along with the Amoy factory.

Documentary experts are an auxiliary role arranged by Amoy factories between merchants and factories to assist both parties in completing orders.

With the help of documentary experts, the paction efficiency of both sides has been greatly improved.

Cheng Jian, a documentary expert, said, "for example, the time of delivery is not more than 30% when there is no follow up document, but when the documentary experts follow up, the amount of interactive information has increased to more than 91%.

More interesting reports, please pay attention to the world clothing shoes and hats net.