GDP Growth Slowed And Trade Conflicts Intensified. What Is The Outlook For The Second Half Of The Textile Industry?

Since 2018, the world economy has accelerated recovery. China's national economy has stabilized steadily, and the macroeconomic environment has been generally stable. The textile industry persisted in deepening the structural reform of the supply side. The structural adjustment of production indicators was characterized by obvious improvement, and the operation quality and efficiency indicators improved compared with the first quarter. The operation of the industry basically continued smoothly, and the characteristics of high quality development were increasingly apparent.

But at the same time, the textile industry is still facing many uncertain factors at present. It still needs to overcome the difficult problems such as increasing comprehensive cost and increasing environmental pressure, bearing in the throes of the reform of capacity structure and enterprise structure adjustment, and resolving external risks such as tightening monetary environment and increasing trade protectionism.

1~5 month operation

Domestic and foreign market growth is generally good.

The domestic textile and apparel market continued to maintain a relatively fast growth level, and the growth of retail sales in physical and network channels was at a high level in recent years. According to the National Bureau of statistics, the sales volume of clothing shoes and hats and needle textiles increased by 9.1% over the same period of 1~5 months in 2018. The growth rate slowed slightly by 0.7 percentage points compared with the first quarter of this year, but 1.9 percentage points faster than the same period last year. Online retail continued to grow at a high speed. The online retail sales of apparel products in 1~5 months increased by 24.9% over the same period last year. The growth rate fluctuated by 9 percentage points compared with the first quarter of this year, but increased by 4.3 percentage points over the same period last year.

Textile and clothing exports continued to grow. China Customs express data show that the total export volume of textiles and clothing (excluding 94 chapters) in 1~5 months was 102 billion 230 million US dollars, up 3.3% from the same period last year, and the growth rate was 1.2 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year. Among them, the export competitiveness of textile yarn, fabric and finished products increased, exports increased by 10.7% compared to the same period last year, the pressure on clothing export remained large, and the export volume decreased by 2.3% compared with the same period last year, down 4.6 percentage points from the same period last year.

Further adjustment of production supply structure

The overall growth rate of textile industry has slowed down. In 2018 1~5, the industrial added value of textile enterprises above designated size increased by 3.1% over the same period last year, and the growth rate slowed by 2 and 0.5 percentage points respectively over the same period last year and the first quarter of this year. Restricted by statistical methods, the growth rate of industrial added value in textile industry is not comparable with other industries.

Judging from the production status of various links in the industrial chain, the characteristics of the textile industry's capacity adjustment and supply structure adjustment are obvious. Cotton textile and cotton printing and dyeing industry production growth slowed down significantly, 1~5 industrial added value decreased by 0.1% over the same period last year, the growth rate was 4.3 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and continued to decline 0.9 percentage points compared with the first quarter of this year. The added value of chemical fiber industry increased by 5.4% compared to the same period last year, 1.7 percentage points faster than that of the same period last year. The production of terminal links has maintained a relatively good growth trend. The industrial added value of home textiles and industrial textiles industry increased by 6.1% and 8.2% respectively over the 1~5 months, up 1.5 and 4.5 percentage points respectively over the same period last year. The apparel industry increased by 5.3% over the same period last year, down 1.2 percentage points from the same period last year, but it is still relatively stable compared with the industry front end industry. The industrial added value of textile machinery industry increased by 15.5% compared with the same period last year, the growth rate is higher than that of the whole industry and the textile machinery industry in the same period last year by 12.4 and 1.2 percentage points, reflecting the steady improvement of the competitiveness of the domestic equipment market.

Operation quality and efficiency increased compared with the first quarter.

The economic benefits of textile industry showed a trend of improvement. In 2018 1~5 months, 36 thousand Textile Enterprises above Designated Size reached 2 trillion and 396 billion 110 million yuan in revenue from main business, up 3.7% from the same period last year, the growth rate was 5.7 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year, but 0.6 percentage points higher than that in the first quarter of this year. The total profit reached 110 billion 720 million yuan, up 1.5% over the same period last year, and the growth rate was 9.1 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year, which was 5.3 percentage points higher than that in the first quarter of this year. In the sub sectors, the profitability of the textile machinery industry increased significantly. The total revenue and profit of the main business in 1~5 months increased by 18.3% and 33.9% respectively, significantly higher than that of other sub sectors, and contributed significantly to the stable profitability of the textile industry.

The operation quality of the textile industry has been improved. In 1~5 months, the sales profit rate of textile enterprises above designated size was 4.6%, down 0.1 percentage points from the same period last year, higher than 0.1 percentage points in the first quarter of this year, and the turnover rate of finished products was 18.5 times / year, which was 3.4% faster than that of the same period last year. The turnover rate of total assets was 1.4 times / year, which was basically the same as that of the same period last year. The three fee ratio was 6.9%, which was 0.2 percentage points lower than that in the first quarter of this year.

Annual trend forecast

Macroeconomic fundamentals remain stable overall.

Looking forward to the whole year 2018, the macroeconomic situation at home and abroad is generally stable, and the smooth operation of the textile industry is basically normal. In terms of domestic demand, the national economy continued to be stable, the supply and demand structure continued to improve, the employment situation improved and market confidence improved. In June, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 51.5%. In May, the consumer confidence index was 122.9, which was at a relatively high level, and the conditions for supporting domestic demand for textile and clothing remained stable. In terms of external demand, although the risk of liquidity tightening and the rise of trade protectionism will weaken the marginal kinetic energy of global economic recovery, it is expected that the overall trend of the global recovery of the real economy will not change fundamentally in the short term, and the demand for international market for textile and clothing is expected to continue to grow at a low speed.

The policy environment facing the textile industry is further optimized. In order to guarantee the demand for cotton for textile enterprises, the NDRC issued 800 thousand tons of cotton import quota for production enterprises in June. Enterprises can independently choose the trade mode of quotas. This policy not only increases the effective supply of high quality cotton in China, but also provides space for textile enterprises to make use of the international market to regulate the supply and demand of raw materials.

In addition, the Ministry of Finance and the General Administration of Taxation issued the circular on the relevant tax policies on the refund of certain industries' value-added tax in 2018. The chemical fiber and textile machinery industries are included in the industry list of the value added tax at the end of the year.

Uncertainties need to be addressed.

Despite the overall stability of the macro environment, the textile industry is still facing many uncertain factors.

From the demand side, the global economic recovery mainly depends on investment activity, and the driving force of private income growth may weaken. The US dollar entering the interest rate cycle will have a gradual inhibitory effect on the global consumer market. In the two quarter, China's GDP growth rate is expected to slow slightly compared with the first quarter. The growth of disposable income per capita in China has slowed down in the first quarter compared with the previous quarter. clothing The supporting role of domestic demand is also possible.

From the external environment, Sino US trade conflict has been developing rapidly, and there has been an increasing tendency in recent years to increase the uncertainty of the export environment of the textile industry. Raw cotton is included in the list of tariffs for us and Canada. If it is implemented, it will also increase textile to a certain extent. industry The pressure of cotton allocation and raw material structure adjustment.

Vigorously promote high quality development

On the whole, the textile industry maintained a smooth operation and promoted the development of high quality in 2018. However, we still need to overcome the difficult problems of increasing comprehensive costs and increasing environmental pressure. We must bear the reform pains such as the structural adjustment of production capacity and the adjustment of enterprise structure, so as to resolve the external risks such as tight monetary environment and trade protectionism.

The textile industry will further push forward the structural reform of supply side and strive to achieve it. industry The development will be steady and steady, and quality will be improved. The main production, sales and efficiency indicators of the whole year will be raised slightly at the current level, the quality of operation will continue to improve, and the goal of building a textile powerhouse in 2020 is steadily advancing.