Operation Analysis And Prediction Of Chemical Fiber Industry In The First Half Of 2018

In the first half of the year, Chemical fiber industry The operation is stable. The upward trend of international oil prices is a great pressure on the cost of chemical fiber industry, pushing up the price of the synthetic fiber market. Although the total profit growth rate is not as good as that of the same period last year, the overall operation of the industry is of good quality and effectiveness. The operation of each sub industry is divided, showing a situation of ice and fire. The polyester and nylon industries perform well, and the viscose fiber, acrylic and spandex industry is running more difficult. Investment continued to rebound trend, production capacity is in a concentrated release period.

1. Basic operation of the industry

(1) supply and demand

According to the National Bureau of statistics, 1~6 chemical fiber production 24 million 611 thousand and 300 tons, an increase of 8.4% over the same period. The average operating rate of polyester fiber and nylon industry in the first half year is higher than 80%, and the operation state is better than other industries. The viscose staple industry is affected by supply and demand. The overall operating rate of the industry fluctuates between 80%~85%, less than in previous years.

1~6 monthly output of chemical fiber in 2018

From the demand side, the downstream demand increased year by year. Besides the cord fabric, the output of the downstream main products increased to varying degrees compared with the same period last year. The start-up rate of the downstream factories increased significantly compared with the same period last year. In addition, the total volume of the textile city increased by about 33% compared to the same period last year, especially in April and May, and also showed a strong demand for chemical fiber. Because of good production and marketing, the polyester and nylon industry inventory is lower than that of the same period last year, maintaining a lower inventory status. This is also a prerequisite for the price to be spanmitted downstream.

(two) market

Driven by the rise in commodity prices, the core value of synthetic fiber products under cost push is higher than that of the same period last year, of which polyester filament grows larger. Because polyester filament has the largest volume, it feels. Chemical fiber Market "Rise" sound, but in fact, the market differentiation of the sub industry is obvious, showing a two - day situation of ice fire, can be summed up as "cost - driven rise, capacity pressure type fall". The specific trend is shown in figure 1~ 2.

Price chart of polyester and its raw materials in July January 2017 ~2018

January 2017 ~2018 July sticky staple fiber and its raw material price chart

(three) quality and efficiency

In the first half of this year, the main business revenue and profit of chemical fiber industry increased year by year. From May, the total profit turned from negative growth to positive growth. National Bureau of statistics data show that: 1~6 months, the main business income of chemical fiber industry 387 billion 300 million yuan, an increase of 16.27% over the same period, the total profit of 17 billion 800 million yuan, an increase of 19.27% over the same period last year. The industry lost 21.92%, an increase of 4.66 percentage points compared with the same period last year, and the deficit of deficit companies also increased by 22.21% over the same period last year. The total profit of industry and the deficit of loss making enterprises are increasing, which shows that the profitability of enterprises is more differentiated.

From statistical data, Chemical fiber industry The profit comes mainly from polyester fiber. Cellulose fiber And the nylon industry, but the viscose fiber industry in the cellulose fiber industry is almost at a loss.

Economic benefits of chemical fiber industry in 1~6 2018

The operation quality of chemical fiber industry is generally good. In 1-6 months, the main business profit margin was 4.6%, an increase of 0.12 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The turnover rate of assets was accelerated, and the proportion of three fees decreased. The increase of industry profits is mainly attributable to the increase of product prices and the follow-up of downstream demand from the market level, but its essence is that the supply side structural reform has achieved results, the supply and demand relationship has been improved, and the development of new products is also accelerating, and the brand, quality and variety have been promoted.

　 Two, the main factors affecting the operation of chemical fiber industry

(1) international oil prices

In the first half of the year, the "unexpected" situation occurred frequently in the international situation. Political risks and supply fluctuations led to a surge in oil prices and a new high. The rise of oil price is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it provides a strong support for the price of chemical fiber, and is conducive to the inventory surplus of enterprises, but on the other hand, it also pushes up the cost of production.

2017~2018 WTI oil price chart

(two) capacity

In the first half of the year, the growth rate of fixed assets investment in chemical fiber industry continued last year's rebound trend, an increase of 28.2% over the same period last year, and the growth rate increased by 7.9 percentage points over the same period last year.

New capacity release, backward production capacity exit, industry is in the throes of shuffling. Among them, the new production capacity of the polyester industry is mainly led by large enterprises, and the concentration degree is further improved; polyester staple fiber is benefited from the market of regenerated fiber; the speed of nylon fiber drawing is less than that of raw materials, and the operation of the nylon industry is improved; the new capacity of viscose staple fiber and spandex industry has a larger impact on the market, and the operation of the industry is difficult.

(three) depreciation of RMB

Although depreciation of RMB is conducive to exports, the proportion of chemical fiber exports is still low. And chemical fiber industry raw material Import dependence is high, and depreciation of RMB will increase the cost of raw material import.

(four) Sino US trade friction

In the first half of this year, Sino US trade frictions gradually escalated. The first round of the 50 billion product list does not contain chemical fiber products; the second round of the 200 billion list contains chemical fiber All products and most of the related products are in the public opinion solicitation stage. In the short term, Sino US trade friction has little direct impact on the chemical fiber industry, but we should pay close attention to the progress of Sino US trade friction. From another point of view, challenge is also an opportunity. This will force the industry to do a good job of quality development and focus on "doing well in internal strength".

　　 Three. Forecast of industry operation in the second half year

(I) demand

7-8 months into the traditional off-season industry, demand may be weakened, but downstream capacity has increased, the 9-10 month is the traditional peak season is still worth looking forward to. On the export side, trade protectionism is intensifying and trade frictions between China and the United States are escalating.

(two) crude oil

From the perspective of supply and demand, the OPEC countries will increase production, and the output of US crude oil will continue to increase. There may be a small surplus of crude oil supply and demand in the second half of this year. The strong dollar will also cause pressure on oil prices. However, the international oil price has been separated from the marginal pricing period of shale oil, and the uncertainty of oil price is increasing at present.

(three) operation forecast of chemical fiber industry

The new production capacity is further released, and some long-term shutdown devices will be reopened, which will expand the supply side again. Demand growth is not as likely as supply growth, and export instability. The tight balance between supply and demand of polyester (polyester) can be broken. The depreciation of RMB will lead to the rising cost of imported raw materials. It is expected that the quality and efficiency of the industry in the second half of this year will be less than that in the first half year.