Trump Postponed The March 1St China US Tariff Increase Plan, Which Is Not Far From The Boots Of The Economic And Trade Consultative Agreement?

In March, before the "tariff limit" was raised, the news was like a warm breeze, and the market optimism continued to spread.

01

Finally, the agreement is getting closer and closer.

On February 22nd, President Trump met with the envoy of President Xi Jinping, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the CPC, vice premier of the State Council and the Chinese leader of the Sino US comprehensive economic dialogue in the Oval Office of the White House. The seventh round of Sino US economic and trade consultations held in the United States.

As the United States previously announced that some Chinese products will be added from 10% to 25% in March, the consultations will come to a "truce" and attract the attention of all walks of life.

For the outcome of the consultation, Trump revealed a lot of information to Terry for the first time.

"As the negotiations are very fruitful, I will now postpone the original US plan to raise tariffs on China in March 1st.

Assuming that both sides have made further progress, we intend to convene a summit of President Xi Jinping and me at the lake lake estate and reach an agreement.

The weekend in the United States and China is very enjoyable.

Trump also said that in the trade negotiations with China, the United States included important structural issues such as intellectual property protection, technology pfer, agriculture, service industry and exchange rate, and many other topics made "great progress".

According to Xinhua news agency, the two sides further implemented the important consensus reached by the two heads of state at the Argentina meeting, and negotiated the text of the agreement, making substantial progress in specific issues such as technology pfer, intellectual property protection, non-tariff barriers, services, agriculture and exchange rate.

On this basis, the two sides will follow the instructions of the heads of state of the two countries to do the next step.

The two sides' positive statements have made speculation that the final agreement between China and the US is closer and closer.

According to Peng Bo, Trump told reporters at the White House that the news about China will be released in the next one or two weeks.

U.S. Treasury Secretary manu chin said last Friday that it was tentatively scheduled to hold a summit in Trump's Lake Lake estate in Florida in late March.

At the same time, some analysts believe that in the Chinese statement, it is also worth noting that the two sides will carry out negotiations on the agreement text, indicating that the negotiations have entered the final stage and begun to prepare the agreement text, which is not available in the previous consultations.

02

Optimism leads to market warming.

Postponing the March 1st deadline to double tariffs on US $200 billion exports to China will help ease investors' concerns about the increasing tension in trade.

With the significant progress made in the Sino US trade negotiations over the weekend, the market has further heated up.

On the one hand, both the offshore and offshore renminbi rose sharply in favor of the good news on trade, which hit a seven month high.

On the other hand, the three major U.S. stock indexes have also risen. Dow rose to the 26000 point mark for the first time since November last year, and recorded a ninth consecutive week of rise, the longest consecutive week of rise since May 1995.

The "deadline" was postponed, and the textile industry breathed a sigh of relief.

Take cotton as an example. Since the beginning of the trade war, major stock indexes, cotton futures contracts and spot cotton have been continuously oscillating.

The China Cotton Textile Industry Association released the "prosperity report of the national cotton textile industry in mid 1 2019" released on 22, which showed that in January, China's cotton textile prosperity index was 47.5, down 1.17 compared with last December.

However, the China Cotton Textile Industry Association also said that the Sino US trade consultation has been going on in the near future. At present, the two sides have a good momentum of negotiation and have increased the market confidence of the enterprises.

At the beginning of the new year, the textile enterprises with good competitiveness of products began to start one after another.

With the festive atmosphere gradually subsiding, production and sales gradually returned to normal. It is expected that China's cotton textile prosperity index will pick up in February.

According to us OTEXA statistics, in 2017, the total export volume of China's textiles and clothing to the United States amounted to 38 billion 740 million US dollars, of which 27 billion 30 million were exported garments and 11 billion 710 million US dollars were exported to textiles and finished products. Once the tax revenue is increased, it will inevitably have a great impact on the Chinese textile and garment export sellers.

According to the analysis of Soochow securities, with the gradual elimination of expected uncertainty, the focus of textile and garment enterprises can be returned to quality manufacturing after the rhythm of the brand side returns to normal.

In 2019, the main factors affecting the short-term performance of quality manufacturing were export environment, RMB exchange rate and raw material prices.

There is a downward pressure on the export environment, but the estimated exchange rate and raw material prices are relatively small. Therefore, high quality manufacturing enterprises are expected to achieve stable development of their performance.

At the same time, there are also international relations remind that in the face of the great changes in the world in the past century, even if the economic and trade frictions are solved, the possibility of other new variables will not be ruled out in the future.

Judging from this situation, for the textile industry, we should also pay close attention to changes in the situation, continuously enhance our strength and enhance our ability to guard against risks.

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Exports to the United States do not dare to take lightly.

Since September 24, 2018, the United States has imposed a 10% tariff on US $200 billion merchandise from China.

A total of 5745 tax products were included in the list, involving 917 items in the textile industry, involving all kinds of textile yarns, fabrics, industrial finished products and some household textiles, etc., involving annual exports of over 4 billion US dollars.

With the escalation of Sino US trade friction, since last August, a lot of fabric producers who had trade with the US market began to stop.

In Nantong, Jiangsu, a trader who exports home textiles to the US market admitted that orders in the US market decreased by 3 in the second half of last year.

Judging from the results of the 124th Canton Fair, the number of buyers in the United States dropped by 4.07% compared with the same period last year. The volume of US exports to the US was 2 billion 790 million US dollars, down 30.3% from the same period last year.

A small and medium sized textile trader in Shanghai said that whether the tariff could be abolished was still poor, and the market reaction would not be so fast. However, the increase in tariffs would give companies a breathing space. At present, enterprises are stepping up their efforts to deal with the 10% tariff sharing problem with American buyers and Chinese manufacturers, and strive to stabilize the number of orders currently exported to the United States.

However, after 10% tariffs are added, the profits will be lower. The next step is not to expand or expand the export business in the US market.

A head of US apparel traders in Suzhou, Jiangsu, said that although the tariff remained at 10%, the pressure on exports to the US was smaller, but the positive impact of the easing was lagging behind.

The responsible person mentioned that the next step will be pferred to some parts of the garment orders in Southeast Asian countries. Although pshipment Southeast Asia can avoid the risk of tariff to the United States, the local fabric supply is relatively scarce compared with the Chinese market, and the impact on the production of the organization is not small.

The respondents generally agreed that despite the friction between China and the US, there was a high degree of dependence on textile and clothing trade. China was the largest source country of textile and clothing imports in the United States. "Made in China" is cost-effective and difficult to replace.

Some experts remind enterprises that the positive changes in Sino US trade policies should be treated with a common sense. In the next two sides' further negotiations, new twists and turns will not be ruled out.

Textile and garment exporting enterprises should not be taken lightly. We must make long-term plans.

It is not advisable to wait for tariff preferences to ensure export share.

A small innovative textile enterprise leader from Beijing believes that if there is no fist product of independent innovation, it is impossible to resist any risk coming. There must be an irreplaceable "hard goods" to occupy the US market.

There are textile enterprises that not only can products be irreplaceable, but also the pformation of foreign trade mode.

Only by adhering to the high quality development, paying close attention to product independent innovation, adjusting and optimizing the product mix, and strengthening the balanced layout of the global market, can Chinese textile enterprises gain a firm foothold in the changeable world trade competition environment and win the initiative and discourse power of the international market.

In addition, the prospect of China's domestic market is broad, and the foreign trade enterprises of spinning and weaving should also look at their eyes.

Marketing Director of a clothing export enterprise in Guangdong said: "like our traditional export enterprises, we should act according to the time and wait for the opportunity.

However, there are a lot of homework to do from export to import business, straightening out channels and dredging logistics.