In March, The Main Macroeconomic Data Are Expected To Pick Up, And The Economy Is Still "Stable".

With the coming of the peak season, industrial production activities accelerated in March, and the main macroeconomic indicators including PMI, industrial added value and infrastructure investment are expected to improve. This indicates that the current economic operation remains stable.

A series of macro data will be released in March.

As a leading indicator of the economy, PMI, which is about to be released on Sunday (31), is expected to take the lead in releasing the warmer signal.

This year, manufacturing PMI has been under the ups and downs line, and dropped to 49.2% in February.

However, the chief economist Lu Zheng commissar of Xingye Bank believes that PMI has strong seasonal characteristics from 1 to March over the Spring Festival.

With the resumption of enterprises after the festival, production activities in March have accelerated, or PMI will rebound to 49.7%.

At the same time, the growth rate of industrial production is expected to rise.

Pan Xiangdong, chief economist of new era securities, said that at present, it is the peak season of operation, and the demand for electricity is increasing. In March, industrial production or downward trend has been reversed to achieve expansion.

Lu commissar analysis said, on the one hand, the actual working days in March this year may be higher than the same period last year. On the other hand, the high-frequency data also showed that the average daily coal consumption of the 6 major power generation groups rebounded significantly in the first 3 months of the year.

Therefore, it is estimated that industrial added value will rise to 5.5% in March, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.

Since the beginning of this spring, the national development and Reform Commission has approved several infrastructure projects such as the Zhaosu airport in Xinjiang, and a large number of major projects have been launched in succession. These have effectively boosted infrastructure investment.

From 1 to February data, infrastructure investment growth rebounded significantly, the market generally expected that the rebound trend is expected to continue in March.

The sales volume of excavators increased sharply in February, reflecting the continued improvement in infrastructure investment demand.

According to the statistics of China Engineering Machinery Industry Association, 18745 excavators were sold in 25 excavators in February, which increased by 68.7% over the same period.

"Driven by the improvement of infrastructure investment, the growth rate of fixed asset investment in March may continue to rise to 6.3%."

Lu commissar said.

Hu Yuexiao, chief macroeconomic analyst at Shanghai securities, is also optimistic.

He judged that investment will see the bottom and stabilize and rebound obviously, so the economic recovery will be highly deterministic.

With the implementation of the policy of reducing costs and complementarity, the signs of economic recovery will be further presented.

It is worth noting that in March, the pulling effect of pork prices on CPI will start to appear. CPI may rebound and return to the "2% era".

"Pork prices have become a key factor affecting inflation during the year."

Tang Jianwei, chief researcher of the bank, said in an interview with the Shanghai Daily reporter that since March, domestic pork prices have risen significantly, which is expected to increase by 2.2% or 1.5% over the previous month, up from 1.5% last month.

But he also stressed that the current pig cycle is still affected by the outbreak of the impact of supply shocks, not demand pull, its impact on prices should not be considered as a factor in macro policy considerations.

At present, the core CPI has been maintained below 2% for 6 consecutive months, and the overall operation is relatively stable. Inflation is expected to remain the main factor restricting the operation of monetary policy.