Analysis Of Current Cotton Supply And Demand Situation: Supply And Consumption Are Loose.

Since 2019, the successful focus of Zheng cotton bottoming has been moving upward, and the disk has been climbing slowly in the good news of the market, but it has never been able to get out of the vision of most people.

一直以來，市場(chǎng)多頭認(rèn)為國(guó)內(nèi)棉花供需缺口明顯，國(guó)內(nèi)外多個(gè)機(jī)構(gòu)的棉花供需平衡表中均預(yù)計(jì)中國(guó)2018/19年度棉花供需缺口接近300萬(wàn)噸左右（我國(guó)棉花產(chǎn)需缺口基本上每年在200萬(wàn)噸左右），棉花上漲指日可待；而壓制多方的觀點(diǎn)認(rèn)為國(guó)內(nèi)本年度棉花需求形勢(shì)一般，在2018/19年度棉花產(chǎn)量基本確定約580萬(wàn)噸，結(jié)轉(zhuǎn)庫(kù)存250多萬(wàn)噸有余，89.4萬(wàn)噸的1％關(guān)稅配額固定按期發(fā)放，80萬(wàn)噸滑準(zhǔn)稅配額按需如期發(fā)放，國(guó)儲(chǔ)庫(kù)輪出消息隨未釋放，但仍有少量輪出傳言，各大機(jī)構(gòu)對(duì)于2018/19年度國(guó)內(nèi)美棉花消費(fèi)的預(yù)期都保持在800萬(wàn)噸以上，那么該年度國(guó)內(nèi)棉花供應(yīng)為當(dāng)年產(chǎn)量+89.4萬(wàn)噸1％關(guān)稅配額+滑準(zhǔn)稅配額+結(jié)轉(zhuǎn)庫(kù)存，供應(yīng)量約1000萬(wàn)噸，棉花實(shí)際供應(yīng)量與消費(fèi)量處在一個(gè)相對(duì)較為寬松的狀態(tài)，但對(duì)比前幾年去庫(kù)存時(shí)期的棉花供需情況，市場(chǎng)給出了略顯緊張的信號(hào)，促成2019年棉花重心逐步抬

The situation of ascension.

Business inventories are running high and consumption is slow.

At the end of 2018, business inventories reached 4 million 959 thousand and 100 tons, the highest level since 2010. On the one hand, business inventories increased year by year from the beginning of 2015. On the one hand, the annual output of cotton increased. On the other hand, it was the progress of the consumption of commercial stocks in recent years. But for the 2018 year, the new increase was due to the decline of domestic consumption under the influence of Sino US trade friction. Suppose that the Sino US trade reached an agreement at the end of April and the beginning of May, and the export of textile products improved. The cotton consumption in China was restored to the original level before 2018. The commercial inventory and industrial inventory in 2019 2019 amounted to about 5 million tons, and the imported cotton was not included. The domestic cotton stocks can still meet the new cotton market after 2019/20.

Global macroeconomic data are not good enough. There are many unknown factors hidden.

On the basis of qualitative supply, the future risks of the cotton market are all reflected in demand. The downward trend of the global economy is bound to pose a psychological shadow on cotton demand. At the same time, the market of the big economies such as the United States and Europe has been sluggish, and the Sino US trade disputes have not been able to cover up many unknown factors at the end of cotton demand.

Back to the downstream textile line situation, the pure cotton yarn Market in April did not usher in the peak season as scheduled, the overall market instead turned pale, the cotton yarn inventory level than the same period in the same period did not rise, according to the China cotton textile information network, in April, the downstream weaving factory order performance is not good, large textile factory orders for only a month, followed by a single obvious fatigue, and some small and medium-sized weaving mills have begun to produce conventional products tired inventory, downstream demand is difficult to improve now, consumption weakness will continue to continue to contain cotton trend.