In The End Of The Autumn And Winter Orders, The Cost Support Is Still Hard To Find. How Much Is The Risk Of Yarn Price Rising And Falling?

Market brief

Zheng cotton's concussion rose and short positions lighten up. On the 31 day, the Ministry of Commerce issued a statement that the Sino US consultations were successful, and will call again in November 1st, making the market favorable. The main force of Zheng cotton challenged the 13200 yuan / ton mark. New cotton production is not as good as expected, the purchase price of seed cotton continues to rise, the cost of cotton mill is constantly rising, the risk of cotton packing enterprises is increasing, the demand for processing is strong, and the demand for cotton is on the rise. Under the cost push, spot cotton prices continue to rise slightly, but the enthusiasm of downstream textile enterprises is still not high. At present, the selling of cotton ginning plants is mainly based on the sale of warehouse receipts, and the selling pressure of spot lint is still relatively large. At present, the cost of new cotton is too high, and the sale and purchase of cotton are mainly cotton, and the supply of lint has risen sharply, while the downstream demand is hard to change. The demand for cotton in the future market is still not optimistic.

The acrylonitrile market continues to be vulnerable to consolidation, and the spot retail quotation is temporarily referenced to 10700-10800 yuan. Limited market trading, spot retail transactions, and a solid deal are discussed. Anqing Petrochemical is overhauling soon, but the market is looking at the atmosphere. The supply of acrylonitrile is lower than expected in October, and the price of the acrylonitrile is still certain. However, the demand side has changed from prosperous to light, and acrylonitrile demand has not been well supported. Under the game of supply and demand, the short term price of acrylonitrile will continue to be stable and weak. Acrylic fiber prices continue to stabilize, cost support weakened, and downstream factory orders are not optimistic, the market looks obvious air atmosphere, but the acrylic fiber factory profit margins are still narrow, factory prices stable trader mentality, at present, the factory installation load is maintained at 6-8, it is expected that the short acrylic fiber prices will continue to stabilize, pay attention to new information guidelines.

According to the data released by China's cotton notarization inspection network, as at 24 o'clock in October 29, 2019, 754 cotton processing enterprises in the whole year of 2019 cotton processed cotton according to the requirements of the cotton quality inspection system reform plan, and carried out notarization inspection. The inspection volume reached 4136981 packages and 934 thousand and 705 tons. Among them: Xinjiang: 708 processing enterprises, notarization inspection of 4069263 packages, 919 thousand and 458 tons. Mainland: 46 processing enterprises, notarization inspection of 67718 packages, 15 thousand and 247 tons.

The cotton association of China reported that the picking and selling of cotton in Xinjiang at the end of October was drawing to a close. As of October 28th, the picking rate in Xinjiang was 87.08%, 5.57 percentage points faster than the same period in October 28th, and the sales progress was 83.74%, an increase of 5.71 percentage points over the same period. Cotton picking is expected to end in 15 days in Xinjiang. According to the subregion, the picking of cotton picking in Northern Xinjiang has come to an end, and the harvest in the southern Xinjiang has reached its peak. Cotton market this year showed "low yield, low price, high agricultural resources, high labor" two low and high characteristics, cotton farmers are not satisfied, hoping to get the first batch of subsidies.

On the morning of October 29th, under the guidance of the State Intellectual Property Office and the Beijing Intellectual Property Office, the establishment of the Beijing textile industry intellectual property alliance was held in Beijing Guanghua cultural center Guanghua hall. The leaders and full-time staff of the 30 intellectual property units were present. Under the guidance of the State Intellectual Property Office and the Beijing Intellectual Property Office, the alliance will intensify efforts to carry out the related work of intellectual property protection and patent layout in the textile industry in the capital area, including: (1) improving the management structure and operation mechanism of the alliance, and promoting the special work of the alliance members in the construction of specialized pools and technical standards; (2) optimizing the internal construction of the alliance, carrying out internal patent licensing and cooperation; (3) strengthening the collaborative protection of intellectual property rights, establishing an industry intellectual property infringement monitoring mechanism and risk response mechanism, and ensuring the development safety of the industry; (4) organizing a variety of specialized training and exchange activities, and promoting the exchange and sharing of the pool of talents.

In October 30th, the Zhejiang textile test and Research Institute led the implementation of the Zhejiang provincial standardization strategy major pilot project - "textile industry transformation and upgrading standardization pilot project" after the expert group's examination, questioning and discussion with high score for acceptance. 《試點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目》以紡織產(chǎn)業(yè)關(guān)鍵環(huán)節(jié)-印染產(chǎn)業(yè)改造提升為切入點(diǎn)，以紹興柯橋?yàn)I海印染工業(yè)園區(qū)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化試點(diǎn)為核心，上延至化纖以及蘭溪棉紡織造等行業(yè)，下延至余杭家紡和桐鄉(xiāng)蠶絲被等終端紡織消費(fèi)品行業(yè)，歷經(jīng)二年的試點(diǎn)實(shí)踐，通過國家、省、市、縣級四級機(jī)構(gòu)聯(lián)動，發(fā)揮各自資源優(yōu)勢，從園區(qū)集聚、綠色企業(yè)、先進(jìn)技術(shù)與產(chǎn)品、節(jié)能環(huán)保等四大標(biāo)準(zhǔn)領(lǐng)域入手，共完成5項(xiàng)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)體系框架圖，制修訂國家標(biāo)準(zhǔn)3項(xiàng)、行業(yè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)6項(xiàng)、地方標(biāo)準(zhǔn)2項(xiàng)、團(tuán)體標(biāo)準(zhǔn)67項(xiàng)，組織標(biāo)準(zhǔn)宣貫19場，在21家企業(yè)/產(chǎn)業(yè)集聚區(qū)開展試點(diǎn)工作，形成專報(bào)1份、對標(biāo)報(bào)告2份、調(diào)研報(bào)告8份、摸底報(bào)告2份，在3家印染企業(yè)構(gòu)建了較為完善的企業(yè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)體系和制定40多項(xiàng)企業(yè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，有4篇次論文獲獎，超額完成項(xiàng)目合同目標(biāo)。

A few days ago, the Research Report of Lanxi textile industrial agglomeration area, which was prepared by the Zhejiang spinning and testing institute, was released. The research report aims to fully understand the development of Lanxi and study the countermeasures through investigation and study, so as to promote the high quality development of Lanxi textile industry. Lanxi's textile industry is Lanxi's traditional dominant industries and rich people's industries. It is an important part of Lanxi's economy. But in recent years, the problems of Lanxi's textile industry's lack of innovation ability, brand influence, industrial chain structure and recruitment difficulties are gradually emerging. Starting from the current situation and trend of Lanxi textile industry, the survey report elaborates on the overall situation of Lanxi textile industry, the main characteristics of the industry, analysis of the existing problems and difficulties, and puts forward countermeasures and suggestions.

On the afternoon of October 29th, Jiangsu textile industry intelligent demonstration workshop on-site promotion will be held in Nantong. In the past two years, nearly 200 key projects have been implemented in Nantong, and more than 30 billion yuan has been invested. Up to now, there are 500 intelligent upgrading enterprises in the city, accounting for 9.5% of the number of enterprises in scale, and 129 demonstration intelligent workshops above the city level, including 44 provincial-level ones. 50% of the industrial enterprises in the city have been in the new stage of integration, innovation and transformation towards two integration, and 90% of the intelligent equipment manufacturing enterprises and universities and research institutes have carried out various forms of industry university research cooperation. The Dasheng group digital spinning workshop is the first domestic production line of the whole process in the domestic textile industry. The workers can only realize a remote monitoring of the equipment with only one cell phone. The workshop only takes 15 people for 1/3.

The US Federal Reserve announced on 30 March that the target range of the federal funds rate will be cut by 25 basis points to 1.5% to 1.75%. This is the third time the Fed has cut interest rates this year, which is in line with market expectations. After the end of the monetary policy meeting, the Fed issued a statement saying that since September, information shows that US economic activity has maintained moderate expansion and household expenditure growth has been strong, but fixed asset investment and exports remain weak. The overall inflation rate and the core inflation rate after excluding food and energy prices are still below the target of 2%. The statement said that considering the impact of the global situation on the US economic outlook and moderate inflationary pressure, the Fed decided to cut interest rates, but the outlook for the US economy is still uncertain. While assessing the appropriate rate path, the Fed will continue to observe the impact of the future situation on the US economic outlook. The first forecast data released by the US Department of Commerce showed that the real GDP of the US in the third quarter of this year increased by 1.9% on an annual basis, down from the 3.1% growth rate in the first quarter and 2% in the second quarter. In July 31st this year, the Federal Reserve announced the first rate cut since December 2008, reducing the target range of the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 2% to 2.25%. In September 18th, the Fed announced again that it would cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 1.75% to 2%.

In recent weeks, cotton prices continued to rise in Pakistan, and cotton mills were rushing to buy high-grade cotton, but they could not synchronously raise the price of yarn, resulting in shrinking profits. It is reported that the demand for Pakistan downstream is very strong recently. The cotton mill is actively buying high quality cotton and ordering a large number of American cotton and Brazil cotton. Affected by that, the spot price index of Pakistan Karachi jumped 2.75% to 9350 rupees / Maud. With the surge in demand for cotton, sales of BCI cotton and organic cotton increased significantly. At the same time, Pakistan cotton yarn prices vary. Although the cost of cotton has increased, the export price of Pakistan's cotton yarn has not changed due to the stronger rupee exchange rate.