China'S First Monthly Negative Growth In Import And Export In Seven Years

Foreign trade is coming to the end of the winter.

Meanwhile, in November, China's imports amounted to 74 billion 900 million US dollars, down 17.9% from the same period last year, a 33.5 percentage point drop from last month.

In that month, China's total import and export volume was 189 billion 890 million US dollars, down 9%, a 26.6 percentage point drop from last month.

　　外部需求急劇放緩

The negative growth of China's import and export in November is obviously the result of the intertwined effect of international financial crisis and domestic economic adjustment.

The slowdown in global demand caused by the financial crisis is the direct cause of negative growth.

In fact, the 104th Canton Fair, which ended in early November, declined both in terms of the number of merchants and turnover, and the decline was quite large.

The downturn in external demand is particularly evident in the textile and clothing industry.

Wang Qian, editor in chief of the first textile network, said that at present, the textile retail market in Europe and America and Japan has been slow-moving, inventory has been overloaded, consumers have substantially reduced their expenditure and budget on textiles and clothing, and the major stores have begun to sell at a discount, but there is still no answer.

Because of this, foreign businessmen dare not place large orders, which has become a direct cause of the continued downturn in China's textile exports.

　　進口為何下降更劇烈？

The negative growth of exports is not surprising, but last month, China's imports fell by 17.9% over the same period last year.

In fact, China's imports are mainly energy and raw materials and semi manufactured goods. There is a saying that "China's imports are for production services and production is mainly for export services". Therefore, the slowdown in China's exports and even the economy will inevitably slow down imports.

Mei Xinyu, a researcher at the Ministry of Commerce and international trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute, said that the export enterprises had greatly reduced the import of raw materials and energy. In addition, in recent months, the prices of commodities such as raw materials, energy and other commodities had plunged sharply, so the import volume had dropped more drastically.

China's trade surplus was 40 billion 90 million US dollars in November, which was more than the decline in exports. It surpassed October's record high of US $35 billion 240 million.

This is also a record high of China's trade surplus for 4 consecutive months.

Mei Xin Yu said that from the perspective of China's industrial structure, China's foreign trade surplus will remain high for quite some time in the future.

　　負增長會持續下去嗎？

　　全球金融危機眼下還在演變，何時見底還真沒人能看得明白。中國進出口的頹勢要到什么時候才算個完？

In recent days, the RMB has depreciated for several days. Recently, it has been rumor that textile and garment export tax rebates will be raised to 17%, and the actual zero tax rate will be realized.

But in the face of these warm winds, Zhong Haosen, assistant general manager of Guangdong textiles import and export Limited by Share Ltd, told reporters that although the above benefits can make the company get more room in the negotiations, it is now demand that decides everything. After the external demand has come down, these stimulus measures have limited effect.

Zhong Haosen said that the 10-11 month is the peak season for garment export, and the company is stepping up shipments. Therefore, the volume of exports increased slightly last month. However, the number of orders next year is nearly half that of the previous years. He predicted that the export decline in the first quarter of next year will be a foregone conclusion.

Wang Qian, editor in chief of the first textile network, said that if the external demand of textiles dropped very much and lasted for a long time, the situation of worsening exports would continue. Even if there were enough policy support, such as depreciation of the renminbi and export tax rebates up to 17%, it would be difficult for me to turn the tide.