Guangdong'S Imports And Exports Are Expected To Stabilize In The Second Half Of The Year.

"Since February this year, there have been some positive signs in the import and export situation of our province, and 3 and April were stable.

However, whether the international financial crisis is bottoming out is not clear yet, the world economy is still on a downward trend, international demand is still weak, and the uncertainties of international trade and credit environment are increasing.

In yesterday's April provincial import and export situation analysis conference, Liang Yaowen, director of the Department of foreign trade and economic cooperation, said, "considering various factors, we expect that the import and export of our province will continue to decline in the first half of this year, but the decline will further narrow, and the third and fourth quarter will probably stabilize and rebound."

[highlights]

Import and export decline continued to narrow some exports to achieve positive growth

According to customs statistics, the total value of import and export trade reached 162 billion 580 million US dollars in 1-4 months, down 21.7% from the same period last year.

Among them, exports amounted to 98 billion 530 million US dollars, down by 17.8%; imports of US $64 billion 50 million, down 27.2%, and achieved a trade surplus of US $34 billion 480 million.

Exports of direct and indirect exports accounted for about 40% of Guangdong's total exports, and exports fell by 14.6%, a 1.5 percentage point narrower than in January.

Compared with the whole country, Guangdong's imports and exports, exports and imports fell by 2.6, 2.7 and 1.5 percentage points respectively in 1-4 months of this year. In April, the import and export, export and import losses of Guangdong were less than 4.7, 6.5 and 2.1 percentage points of the national average, less than those of Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Shandong, Fujian and other major provinces and cities in China.

It is worth noting that Guangdong's import and export, export and import three indicators increased by 5.2%, 1.6% and 10.9% respectively in April and March.

Shenzhen, which accounts for more than 40% of the total foreign trade, is better than the whole province.

In the month of 1-4 and April, the import and export decline in Shenzhen was less than 3.9 and 5.5 percentage points in the province respectively.

At the same time, some import and export indicators continue to stabilize.

Among them, the growth of import ring is obvious.

General trade and processing trade imports increased by more than two digits in April, up by 12.5% and 11% respectively over March.

In addition, Guangdong's exports to some emerging markets and some traditional markets are increasing.

In 1-4 months, exports to the Middle East, Africa and India increased by 10.8%, 1.4% and 5.4% respectively, and exports to ASEAN increased by 2.7% over the same period in April.

The export of private enterprises dominated by small and medium-sized enterprises continued to improve.

In the 1-4 month, the export of private enterprises increased by 3.2%, up 9.3% from April.

General trade exports of major labour intensive products have also seen a general positive growth.

In April, exports of textiles, clothing, footwear, plastic products, bags and toys increased by 10.6%, 21.7%, 12.3%, 32.5% and 53.4% respectively.

[good]

The US economy is showing positive signs, and export orders have increased.

From the perspective of market demand, the US led European and American economies have seen some positive signs in recent years.

Among them, the US credit market has recovered, and the stock market has shown signs of overall improvement. Consumer confidence index has picked up for 2 consecutive months, 29% in April, 3 percentage points higher than last month, and 41.2 in March, 8.1 percentage points higher than in February.

The revival of market demand is also reflected in the growth of orders for export enterprises.

According to the questionnaire survey of 110 enterprises by the foreign economic and trade department, this year, it is estimated that the export orders in May will be 38.2% higher than that in April, while 34.6% will be flat, and only 27.2% will be down.

The conclusion of the 105 Canton Fair has been better than expected. The sale of products with independent intellectual property rights and independent brands is better. Especially, some enterprises are optimistic about the market prospect.

In addition, the integrated effects of a series of policies and measures formulated by governments at all levels from the state to the provinces and cities are gradually emerging. Export tax rebate rate increases, processing trade policy adjustments and various services and support measures are introduced, which are conducive to reducing operating costs, enhancing enterprise confidence and enhancing product competitiveness.

Newspaper reporter Wu Zhe

Interview with Liang Yaowen, director of the Department of foreign trade and economic cooperation

The situation is getting better and the task is arduous.

"The general feature is that the import and export decline narrowed and some indicators stabilized, but the situation is still grim."

Yesterday, Liang Yaowen, director of the provincial foreign trade and Economic Cooperation Department, said in an interview with this newspaper.

"Since the beginning of this year, the import and export decline of our province has narrowed down month by month, especially the import and export indicators have also seen positive changes, which has strengthened our province's confidence and determination to take the lead in getting out of the shadow of the financial crisis."

But Liang Yaowen pointed out in particular: "the international financial crisis has not yet bottomed out, and the pressure on the downward trend of world economic trade is greater. Meanwhile, the spread of" Jia Liu "has also increased the uncertainty of the world economic recovery, and international demand is hard to rebound in the short term.

According to the questionnaire survey conducted by the provincial foreign economic and trade department to the 135 key enterprises in the province, the current orders for enterprises have not fundamentally recovered, and the short-term orders, small orders and urgent orders within 3 months are the main reasons for the enterprises' orders, and the prices of export products have generally been lowered, so that the reduction trend of import and export volume and price is continuing.

In addition, the depreciation of currencies in some countries also directly led to a decline in export competitiveness of our products.

Liang Yaowen expressed with great concern that at present, the downward trend of import and export in our province has not changed significantly.

He listed five "no significant changes" in one breath: first, the sharp decline in the import and export of processing trade, which accounts for about 2/3 of the province, has not changed significantly; two, there has been no significant change in the import and export of the traditional markets such as Hongkong, the European Union and Japan, which account for more than 50% of the province's total; three, the trend that the import and export of mechanical and electrical products and high and new technology products accounted for about 70% of the whole province has not changed significantly; four is that the import and export of Foreign Investment Enterprises above 60% of the whole Province has not changed significantly; five is a significant decline in the export of the Pearl River Delta region, which accounts for more than 90% of the whole province.

"From the negative factors, the external demand is still weak, especially in the developed countries, and the exchange rate of the developing countries has been greatly reduced, resulting in the reduction of orders, the reduction of prices and the increase of trade risks."

However, Liang Yaowen said optimistically, "in the first half of this year, the import and export of our province continued to decline, but the decline will further narrow. Third, the fourth quarter is likely to stabilize and rebound."