Cotton Price Crazily: Clothing Orders Offer A Year-On-Year Increase Of 30%

　　 In just two months, domestic standards Cotton spot The price rose sharply from 18 thousand yuan / ton in September to 28 thousand yuan / ton in November.

Under the impact of frenzied cotton prices, Chinese clothing exporters are trying to raise export quotas substantially.

Several garment exporters surveyed revealed that orders for goods at the autumn fair were generally up by about 30% over the same period last year. Individual products The price increase is even as high as 40%.

Ling Fangcai, chairman of the Guangdong textile import and export Limited by Share Ltd, one of the largest exporters of textile and clothing in China, said that about 20% of the increase in the Canton Fair is still necessary, and the current order price is still difficult to cover the increase in costs.

What is even more headaches is that the instability of raw material prices can lead to losses for every order of exporters. Ling said, every order of the salesmen was worried. The recent fluctuations in cotton prices have led to the failure of some cooperative factories to require the exporters to temporarily increase their prices before shipment. Careful operation has resulted in a slight reduction in hand orders in the company.

I dare not answer.

In November 1st, at the forum of the Canton Fair, Huang Yuefeng, director of the textiles Department of the Ministry of foreign trade of the Ministry of Commerce, analyzed, though 2010. Textile and clothing The export situation is better than expected, but consumer demand in developed countries is still shrinking, and continues to tilt towards the middle and low end products. In the judgement of slower growth of external demand, China's textile and garment exports still have limited room for further expansion.

"In the context of the sharp rise in cotton prices and labor prices, the situation of export enterprises has changed from a single financial crisis to a single dare." He said.

In fact, when the exporter negotiated the order, he immediately locked the price with the cooperative factory to control the cost of raw materials and to ensure that he obtained the calculated profit from the earlier calculation. However, it is difficult for factories to ensure that raw material prices can be stabilized at this agreed level.

In fact, in the whole chain of textile and apparel industry, the situation of various enterprises is different. A large cotton textile enterprise in Zhejiang revealed that the sales profit of cotton yarn was even 10 times higher than that of last year, so that the high return that did not happen in ten years benefited from the soaring price of cotton and cotton yarn and the operation of buying cotton after buying cotton.

Just on the chain of the entire textile industry, the profit growth is only this link. The above refers to the fact that the price transmission in the industrial chain has gradually weakened, and the closer the terminal enterprises are, the smaller the price increases will be.

A textile industry expert said that the textile industry cost push type price increase is in progress. In the domestic market, the price of autumn winter clothing has already seen how much the export clothing can increase. It is estimated that next year 1 and February will be clearer.

He estimated that the short-term increase in 15%-20% would be good.

It is never easy to raise prices at the Canton Fair. Ling Fangcai said, the textile industry said the order of the comprehensive price increase of 30% can barely hedge cotton prices rise. The price of raw materials such as cotton occupies the 60%-70% of the final garment export cost, while the current price of standard cotton of 28 thousand yuan / ton is more than doubled than that of 12 thousand yuan / ton at the beginning of the year.

Change is not just such a thing. The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has risen to nearly 3 percentage points since September. In addition, recent surveys of Guangdong and Jiangsu's multi province foreign trade system also show that, as a typical labor-intensive industry, the labor cost of the textile and garment industry has generally risen by about 30% this year.

"Three pressures are squeezing the profit margins of enterprises." Ling Fangcai said.

About 30% of the price increase is difficult for foreign businessmen to accept. Lin Yan, manager of Hangzhou light industrial craft textile export company, said, "most purchasers only set the quantity and style in the Canton Fair, and the final price is still not negotiable."

Some of the European and American customers contacted by Lin Yan have begun to reduce their purchases in China, and some low-end goods tend to buy more from Southeast Asia, where exchange rates and labor costs are more dominant.

4 million tons of cotton gap

After two months of soaring cotton prices, there is imbalance between supply and demand, and there is also a push for speculative capital.

According to the analysis of textile industry experts, before and after September, the market expected cotton production in China to be close to 7 million tons in the year of 2010 cotton. However, the expected number has been drastically reduced in recent years, and the official forecast has also been reduced from 7 million tons to 6 million 600 thousand tons, while the market forecast is generally around 6 million tons.

"According to the estimated cotton consumption of at least 10 million tons in the new year, the gap will be at least 4 million tons." He said.

In fact, at the recently concluded seven annual cotton conference of ministries and commissions, Zhang Xiaoqiang, deputy director of the national development and Reform Commission, pointed out that in recent intensive research and analysis, it is estimated that the supply and demand gap of cotton in 2010 will exceed the previous year. Cotton gap in China last year was around 3 million 600 thousand tons.

Textile industry experts believe that the fundamental reason for the sharp rise in cotton prices lies in the imbalance between supply and demand. As a large commodity, the capital plate of cotton is large. It is very difficult for domestic general speculative funds to control cotton prices, which is not the same as that before the price of mung beans.

He hints that there are few policy cards in the hands of the government. It is hard to expect effective cotton prices to be stabilized through effective policy regulation. After several rounds of policy dumping, the number of reserve cotton in the State Reserve should be within 1 million tons.

The policy of increasing import cotton quotas or reducing the sliding quasi tax rate of imported cotton will be gradually introduced. It is expected that at least 2 million tonnes of cotton tax quotas will be issued. The government may periodically reduce the sliding tax rate of cotton imports from the current average of 4% to around 1%.

However, such measures will not be effective in stabilizing cotton prices. Global cotton prices hit a record high at the end of 10. The price of about 160 cents a pound has risen by nearly 90% compared with the beginning of the year.

　　 The US Department of agriculture report shows that the US cotton ordering process has been exceptionally fast this year, and more than 70% of the US cotton has been ordered, and the resources available to China are relatively limited.