How Should The Market Respond To The "Crazy" Phenomenon Of Nylon Prices?

　　 Recently, the market of nylon has been increasing fiercely. Nylon chain Whether upstream raw materials or downstream fabrics, the market has picked up a strong uptrend, which can be called a crazy trend. Until it has reached a record high level, it has to make people feel this way. Rally As the acme of perfection.

Judging from the market position of caprolactam, the spot price of RMB yuan was 19500-19600 yuan / ton hovering at the early stage, and then the market rose all the way to 21800-23000 yuan / ton, the increase was as high as 3500 yuan / ton, and the US gold plate market was low 2300 US dollars / ton, a sharp rise of 500 US dollars / ton. Entering the November, when everyone thought that the market would be stabilized, the spot market continued to rise strongly, rising 500 yuan / ton again, breaking through the historical high price of 23000 yuan, setting a new record high, reaching the peak of 23500 yuan / ton, and making an unprecedented offer to the historical high of 2900 US dollars / ton. In the internal and external market, there has been an unprecedented difficulty in closing the market. Most of the buyers are reluctant to sell the market, and the atmosphere is strong.

from nylon According to the sliced East China market, the market price of conventional spinning and high-speed spinning was low at 22500 yuan / ton and 22700 yuan / ton respectively. After a steady rise, the price was stable at 24000 yuan / ton and 24200 yuan / ton, and the increase was as high as 1500 yuan / ton. After the National Day holiday, the market prices continued to soared, up again by 1400 yuan / tonnes, to 25400 yuan / tonnes and 25600 yuan / tonnes, creating another highest point.

Nylon yarn market has seen a rare trend of rising. Up to now, there has never been a report on the supplier's closing of the Shengze area. On the one hand, the supply of spot shortage market is not urgent, and the limited stock of factories drives prices soaring all the way. On the other hand, the price of a product rises every day, so that buyers and sellers are in a stalemate. They are afraid to sell goods without fear that they will lose money in the next second, and buyers will not dare to buy them at random. A small amount of spot purchase is paid by way of settlement, with a daily rise of 500 yuan and a high of 1000-2000 yuan. The explosion of nylon null yarn is the most obvious. The specifications have risen to more than 40000 yuan / ton. The factory has no stock and only accepts orders. The delivery date has been discharged until next February. 40D and 70D rose 1500 yuan / ton upward, 40/34 has reached 45000 yuan / ton, 70/24 extinction mainstream to 32000 yuan / ton, and no bargaining. Zhejiang market rose 1000 yuan / ton upward, high-end POY85D/24 to 29000 yuan / ton acceptance, 85D/48 rose to 29500 yuan / ton, 40/12 half light to 32300 yuan / ton, 50/24 half light to 32000 yuan / ton, 70/24 to 30200-30700 yuan / ton. Compared to the Fujian market as a nylon base, the rally is relatively rational.

Downstream nylon interwoven fabric market pressure from upstream raw materials, the same trend of rising trend. Up to now, 228T taslung has risen to 6.3 yuan per meter, and extinction 228T taslong has risen to 6.8 yuan / m, or 0.2 yuan per day or up. The fabric of nylon spinning and nylon cotton has been raised by more than 20% on the original basis.

What factors have led to such a crazy rise in the market of nylon?

1. The rise in import prices drives the market.

In the domestic market, imported nylon has been occupying a large market share. The implementation of anti-dumping measures by the Ministry of Commerce has undoubtedly made the supply of nylon more strained, thus promoting the rise of nylon prices. Whether caprolactam or nylon chips, the price of imported goods has been rising continuously. This undoubtedly increases the cost pressure of downstream enterprises, imports caprolactam to 23500 yuan / ton, and the price of polyamide chips has been reported to 27000 yuan / ton.

Two. Other raw material prices are soaring.

The price increase of downstream polyester fiber is mainly affected by cotton, and cotton continues to rise, making the downstream textile enterprises increase the purchase of chemical fiber raw materials, coupled with a significant increase in the capacity of downstream weaving machines, and a tight supply of polyester fibers. Many short staple enterprises even have negative stocks. Up to now, the stock of polyester staple fiber has been negative for 16 days. Strong demand and negative stock have created strong and favorable conditions for the sharp rise of polyester staple fiber. The price of polyester and short is also rising frequently, and the mainstream quotation of the market breaks through the twenty thousand mark.

Three. Limited factory inventory and tight supply

Factory reaction, as the chemical fiber industry itself is a low profit rate industry, raw materials on nylon production enterprises more obvious impact, in the process of price increase, the cost pressure has increased rapidly, cost increase has led to a decline in profitability, by raising the factory price to eliminate the pressure brought by the rise has become inevitable; in addition, some domestic nylon enterprises have to ease production pressure, a substantial reduction in production inventory, market demand is large, in short supply, the price is bound to rise. In addition, due to the increase in the expected price increase, the seller does not sell the stock, resulting in insufficient supply of the market, resulting in difficulties in procurement downstream, and tight supply prices have been driven up.

Four. The impact of macroeconomic policy.

At present, the prices of many commodities on the market show a strong upward trend. On the one hand, the state continues to implement a loose monetary policy. On the other hand, we should manage well the expectations of inflation. The market does not have the power to fall. At the beginning of 2010, the import tariff of caprolactam in China was raised from 5% to 7%. By the end of April, the Ministry of commerce again came to the news of anti-dumping investigation on the import of caprolactam. In October, the initial anti-dumping decision against caprolactam in China, which must play a role in promoting the caprolactam market, maintained a strong upward trend and strengthened the space.

How will the market respond to such a rising price?

Up to now, the crazy rise of nylon has made the nylon upper and lower streams extremely panic. What are the favorable ways for the market to alleviate the severe situation? I believe that on the one hand, the state policy will not allow the market to go up so that there will be some policy intervention. In addition, the Ministry of Commerce has conducted a survey of caprolactam products produced by three domestic enterprises. The results show that the quality of domestic products is no different from that of imported goods. This shows that the quality of domestic products can fully meet the downstream needs. At present, the price of imported products is high, and the price of imported goods is reduced.