The National Bureau Of Statistics Denied That The Era Of Inflation Is Coming.

　　 National Bureau of Statistics Data released yesterday, consumer price index October ( CPI Year on year Gain 4.4%, for the first time in the year, 4% exceeded 25 months. Among them, the vegetable prices closely related to the people increased by 31%. How to achieve the target of CPI3% in the whole year, said Sheng Lai Yun, a spokesman for the National Bureau of statistics, "we must make greater efforts".

　 Food prices increased by 10.1%

Statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics yesterday showed that CPI rose 4.4% in October, up 0.7% from a year earlier, a year-on-year high.

Sheng Lai Yun said that the rise in food prices and residential prices led to price increases throughout October. Food prices rose by 10.1%, contributing 74%. Among them, vegetables increased by 31%, and fruit rose by 17.7%.

Sheng Yun analysis said that vegetables and fruits rose rapidly, mainly due to the fact that besides cost push and fluidity, there were two important reasons for exceeding expectations. First, the sharp rise in prices of foreign agricultural products and the rise in prices of commodities will have a greater impact on China than expected. Another reason is that many natural disasters occurred again this year.

Yao Jingyuan, chief economist of the National Bureau of statistics, said the tail factor will be zero by December.

Zhou Wangjun, deputy director of the price department of the NDRC, said earlier that after the economic crisis in 2008, various countries have introduced loose monetary policies to promote economic development. Ample liquidity has caused pressure on price increases and needs to be released.

　 　 Denying total inflation Times are coming

Sheng said that inflation pressure is still high in the future. According to the reality of the growth of total retail sales of commodities in October, Sheng Lai Yun pointed out that there are seasonal and price factors.

A reporter asked whether the era of total inflation is coming. Sheng said that the price increase was a structural leading trend, and that non food prices began to rise.

Zhang Ping, director of the national development and Reform Commission, said on 9 that the price index will be slightly higher than that of 3% this year. To achieve the 3% price index at the beginning of the year, Sheng Lai Yun said yesterday that "greater efforts must be made".

　　 The two real estate regulation has achieved initial success.

In yesterday's press conference, Sheng Lai Yun temporarily increased the introduction of real estate data.

According to Sheng Laiyun, the sales price of housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities increased by 8.6% over the same period in October, up 0.5 and 0.3 percentage points respectively from September. "From the real estate operation in October, the two regulation of real estate started at the end of September has achieved initial success."

A reporter asked the statistics department whether or not to borrow the census to investigate the housing vacancy rate. Sheng Lai Yun said that the housing information of census households will play a very good role in judging the residents' living conditions, and will provide some information for analyzing the use and vacancy of housing. However, due to the heavy workload of the census, the first batch of results of the census will be released in April next year. However, Sheng Lai Yun did not specify whether the result would be used to investigate the vacancy rate.

　 "CPI has not been underestimated."

In view of the fact that China's CPI for five years is considered to be 7% lower and undervalued, Sheng Lun has made it clear that the Bureau of statistics has noticed this report and has communicated with the researchers that it can not get the conclusion from the structure of the report, "CPI does not exist underestimation, and there is no artificial adjustment". {page_break}

　 Focal point

The industry said it was unlikely to raise interest rates immediately.

In October, CPI hit a new high year by year, raising interest rates.

In the eyes of many economists and the industry, it is still necessary to raise interest rates again after raising the deposit reserve ratio. Wang Xiaoguang, a researcher at National School of Administration, thinks that raising the deposit reserve ratio has a certain effect on stabilizing prices, but it can not achieve the best results.

However, there is still a view that the interest rate increase is more far-reaching and should be treated with caution. Cao Heping, a professor at Peking University, disagrees with raising interest rates continuously. He points out that we should keep an eye on inflation while maintaining steady and fast economic growth.

The industry believes that the central bank's immediate interest rate increase is likely to be small. Zhang Jianhua, director of the central bank's Research Bureau, said recently that the unconventional policy of the extraordinary period has fulfilled its mission and that China should return to normal and prudent monetary policy.

　　 Feel the garlic Apple rising in turn

Many residents said, "the money in my pocket is not enough."

Behind the 4.4% abstract figure is the intuitive feeling of residents' prices rising and falling over the past year.

80% retail prices of foodstuffs rose

"One by one, one wave after another, today is garlic, and tomorrow is apple, and the price rise is like overthrowing Domino." Speaking of current prices, Beijing citizen Liu Ying said helplessly.

From the beginning of the year, garlic ginger in the farmer's market, and then collected jade coins in the market, and then to the fruits and vegetables in the supermarket. In the daily concern of residents about prices, these commodities are playing a leading role in rising prices and extending all the way.

According to the NDRC's monitoring data on urban food retail prices in October, a total of 31 products, including vegetables, grain and oil, fresh meat and fruits, were monitored, and the prices of 24 kinds of products increased, accounting for 80% of total statistics compared with September.

　 "What can I buy for 10 yuan now?"

At the same time, the impact of price is more and more obvious.

Zhao Yujie, a wage earner working in an enterprise in Nanjing, wrote accounts to reporters. The maximum denomination of 100 yuan can buy 20 apples or 3 bags of mutton. Apple can eat for half a month, and mutton is enough for one family to eat. "Even instant noodles are not cheap. Two yuan and more packets of instant noodles cost more than 5 yuan if you add eggs, ham and tomatoes."

Ms. song, a more than 50 year old citizen of Ji'nan, said: "the price increase is too great. Garlic is 8 yuan a kilogram, and ginger is 7 yuan. The price of apple is more than a day, and the money in pocket is not enough." To this end, Miss Song every day around her home market and supermarkets, compare prices, a discount vegetables or special dishes always do not hesitate to buy.

"Look, what can you buy now for 10 yuan?" on the evening of 10, at the underground Ginza supermarket in Ma'anshan, Ji'nan, Aunt Zhang, 68, said helplessly. The big red Fuji Apple has been sold to 7 yuan per kilogram, and Zhang Niang picked 6, which cost more than 5 yuan. "Last year, this small apple can buy a net bag for ten yuan." Although Aunt Zhang doesn't know what CPI is, she can feel the pressure of rising prices obviously. {page_break}

　 The phenomenon of "hoarding race" group buying is popular.

In the face of CPI's expected growth, many citizens are trying to compete with CPI for "race", such as "hoarding group" and "group buying".

1 careful calculation

Reporters in Beijing, Ji'nan and other places business market interview found that in the face of rising prices, many people began to live more reckless days. Many people make use of supermarket specials, shopping mall "coupons", shop redemption, and non peak hours buying opportunities to spend more money on the least amount of money. A supermarket staff told reporters that the supermarket special time * eggs, soybean oil, rice, pork and so on, which are much cheaper than the normal market price. Now some housewives are also joining them.

2 hoarding families

In addition to careful calculation, there are people hoarding ahead of time.

In Ji'nan, following the recent emergence of the "hoarding gas family", there was a recent emergence of "hoarding vegetables". Citizen Lin Kai told reporters that he had already filled his natural gas card before the price adjustment. On Tuesday, Ji'nan held a hearings on raising the price of natural gas, and at least 0.3 yuan per cubic meter of natural gas. On the two days, he worried that the price of Chinese cabbage would continue to rise as the weather turned cold. He and his friends would hoard their target to cabbage.

3 group buying people

Reporters interviewed found that many people began to take the initiative to attack, through online shopping, group buying and other ways to reduce the cost of living. Take the clothing that the cotton price unceasingly creates the new high background as an example, a citizen indicated that now buys the clothing basically to look after from the physical store, the online shop buys, the online shop commodity generally compares the physical store price low two to 30%, many even achieves 50%.

4 asylum

The public also put money into the stock market in order to preserve and increase value.

Xiao Zhao, a small business unit in Beijing, recently opened a gold deposit account in a bank. Although the international gold price has risen to a high level of $more than 1400 an ounce, he decided to keep his "dead wages" in the gold market. "Now that the money is kept in the bank, the less Yu Yue saves, he has no time to stare at the stock market, and there is no way to stir up agricultural products. He is not seeking to get rich by selling gold, so long as he does not pay too much, he will be satisfied." Xiao Zhao said.

Li Yangyang, who works in a bank in Ji'nan, is also planning to put tens of thousands of dollars into the stock market. "After all, it is an investment channel."

5 waiting for inflation

Reporters learned that not only many people were looking for shelter for their savings, but also some farmers had set their own plans in the face of rising prices. "Grain, peanuts, apples, sweet potatoes, prices are rising, I do not believe that pork prices will not rise this year." The pig farmers in Yushan town of Linshu County, Shandong province pondered over the recent market and decided to get more piglets.

　 View confrontation

Zhang Yongjun, researcher of China International Economic Exchange Center: inflation pressure has increased

Zhang Yongjun, a researcher at the China International Economic Exchange Center, said that the general analysis was that the CPI was about 4%, and did not expect to reach 4.4%. He said that the inflation pressure was expected to ease in the 4 quarter, which is now increasing, and the possibility of a decline in CPI growth in the next two months is lower than before.

Zhang believes that the current inflation situation is grim. Therefore, compared with interest rate means, the central bank's follow-up means may be more inclined to open market operations, deposit reserve ratio and other quantitative tools. Newspaper reporter Hu Hongwei

Wang Guogang, director of the Financial Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China: there is no inflation at present.

Scholars at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences believe that there is no inflation in China.

Yesterday, at the Chinese Social Science Forum, Wang Guogang, director of the Financial Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that the international CPI increased by more than 3% in 6 consecutive months was called inflation. The concept was also used in China, which should distinguish between price inflation and inflation.

"From May of this year, it has been over 3% in several months, and it seems reasonable to use inflation." Wang Guogang said that it is not reasonable to calculate carefully. Wang explained that the CPI composition of developed countries does not contain agricultural products and resource products, while China's CPI agricultural products or food products account for 1/3. Because of the rising prices of agricultural products, the rise of CPI is a rise in prices, not inflation, because inflation is caused by excessive currency issuance. Therefore, he believes that there is no inflation in China at present.