The Petrochemical Market Has Adjusted Slightly To &Nbsp; Fluorite And Hydrofluoric Acid Prices Are Still Strong.

This week (May 9, 2011 ~5 13), the petrochemical market showed a slight adjustment trend. The proportion of prices rising, stable and falling down accounted for 23%, 38% and 39% of the petrochemical 100 vane respectively. Among them, light soda ash prices rose by 3.91% weekly gain; liquid chlorine led to a 16.63% decline; acetic acid prices continued to grow, this week fell 9.06%. The fluorine industry will be strengthened due to the strong price of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid and the strong demand for downstream. The soda ash and caustic soda market will continue to rise under the dual influence of the increase in international demand and the power supply reduction in some regions. The price of steam coal will rise for eight consecutive weeks and the cumulative increase will be 7.17%. Analysts said that Shenhua will benefit from the increase in capacity, and the earnings per share are expected to be 2.26 yuan this year.

This week, the petrochemical market has undergone major fluctuations, and the price of larger acetic acid and other products has dropped significantly. Overall, the petrochemical market has declined this week, and the market has been expanding.

According to the data from the business community monitoring, 17 of the 68 products in the chemical market are on the rise. The prices of the 26 products remain stable, and the prices of the 25 products show a downward trend. Among them, the price of light soda ash rose the largest, with a weekly gain of 3.91%, an increase of 32.11% over the same period last year, a second rise in heavy soda prices and a 3.20% increase in weekly prices; the largest weekly decline in liquid chlorine prices was 16.63%. Meanwhile, the price of acetic acid jumped 47.43% last month, and the weekend price was 4157 yuan / ton, down 9.06%.

Of the 12 products in the energy market, the prices of 4 products rose, the prices of 1 products were flat, and the prices of 7 products dropped. Among them, thermal coal ranked 0.61% in the energy market, and WTI fell 3.49%, the biggest drop in energy market. In the 20 products of the rubber and plastic market, 2 products prices rose this week, 11 products were flat, and 7 products fell. Butadiene benzene rose 1502 to 0.18%, up 66.37% from the same period last year, the highest price for the rubber and plastic market this week; PET (bottle grade) this week dropped 3.03%, the largest decline in the rubber and plastic market.

Fluorine chemical industry chain is still strong

Looking at the 68 wind vane of chemical industry, the chemical market has eased up from last month. Most of the prices of chemical products began to slide this week and entered the adjustment period. Soda ash was one of the better products this week. Light soda ash rose from 1855 yuan / ton to 1928 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 3.91%, up 32.11% compared with the same period last year. The price of heavy soda at the beginning of the week was 1870 yuan / ton, while the weekend price was 1930 yuan / ton, or 3.20%, a 29.79% increase over the same period last year. Soda ash listed companies are mainly

Double ring technology (000707, closing price of 8.55 yuan), Sanyou chemical (600409, closing price of 10.89 yuan), Shandong Haihua (000822, closing price 11.04 yuan).

At the same time, fluorine and hydrofluoric acid prices are still strong in the fluorine chemical industry chain. This week, the market price of fluorite continued to move forward. From the price data chart of business associations, fluorite rose from 1660 yuan / ton in January this year to 2633 yuan / ton of mainstream factory quotations this week, and the highest price in Inner Mongolia is 3100 yuan / ton. The domestic market operation rate has been maintained at over 80%. The control index of total fluorite production issued by the Ministry of land and resources this year has a good supporting role in the fluorite market in the long run.

This week, the market price of hydrofluoric acid is still running high, and the mainstream quotation is maintained at 10700 yuan / ton. The market is active, and the factory starts normal, and the operating rate is above 80%. Overall, upstream fluorite products are running high and downstream demand is still strong, which is a favorable factor to support the high price of hydrofluoric acid. At present, the price of R22 in the downstream is stable and stable, which is the main factor for the stable price of hydrofluoric acid. At the same time, the increase of labor cost and storage and spanportation cost is also one of the factors that support the rise of hydrofluoric acid market.

The relevant listed companies of fluorine chemical industry are also well deserved in the market, namely, Niu shares (giant, 600160 shares, closing price 31.40 yuan), three Ai Fu (600636, closing price 36.87 yuan), and multi fluorine (002407, closing price 51.13 yuan).

Energy rubber and plastics market is flat.

The price of the energy market has also stabilized this week. The price of the 4 products such as power coal, liquefied petroleum gas, coke and two methyl ether has risen to 0.61%, 0.35%, 0.26% and 0.15% respectively. The price of WTI and Brent crude oil has dropped 3.49% and 2.52% respectively this week, and methanol gasoline has been kept at a price of 8060 yuan / ton this week, unchanged from last week.

From the perspective of rubber and plastic market, the market mentality of rubber and plastic industry has been suppressed and its performance has been poor due to the turbulence and adjustment of international crude oil this week. Ding Jing (Lanhua N41), PVC (calcium carbide method type 5), Ding Ji (1675N) and most other products prices were flat, butadiene 1502, LDPE (2426H) rose slightly, natural rubber (standard 1), PP (T30 wire drawing level), PA66 and other products prices fell. It is understood that most products downstream market sentiment wait-and-see, trading slightly deadlocked, is expected to continue to be weak after the market.

Most products are priced sideways.

Looking at the 100 wind vane of petrochemical industry, Liu Xintian, chief editor of the business community, said that the price of petrochemical market in the middle of this month was slightly adjusted. This week's petrochemical market has two points: first, the price of acetic acid has dropped sharply, which has almost wiped out the gains of the previous period. This also fully shows that the current market environment is stable, and it is difficult to continue to rise or fall. Most of them are small price fluctuations within 3%. Two, the 100 kinds of petrochemical wind vane products are up to less than 4% (soda ash), and energy, rubber and plastic products have not risen more than 1%, which is rare this year. Many analysts threw a turning point in crude oil crash last weekend. However, this week's proportion of the 100 rise in the petrochemical industry is hard to prove. Most products are in a state of sidetracking, and there is no panic in large areas. Therefore, Liu Xintian believes that there is no turning point in the petrochemical market.

Key companies /

"Two bases" boom continued to improve Sanyou chemical industry is expected to benefit from {page_break}

In recent years, the market of caustic soda and soda ash has been outstanding. The market of "two bases" which has been dormant for many years is ushering in the opportunity of development. At the same time, relevant stocks in the A share market are expected to usher in a new round of rally.

"Two bases" market salted fish turn over

According to the data provided by the business community, the domestic caustic soda market has continued to warm since April, and prices have been steadily improving. This week, the average price of 32% caustic soda increased by about 1.1%, and the mainstream quotation was 700 yuan / ton ~860 yuan / ton, and the current market price has reached a high level.

Li Guohong, an analyst with Galaxy Securities, said that due to the March earthquake, Japan's Chiba Asahi soda plant had been stopped. Other parts of the caustic soda plant also had partial parking. This made the international caustic soda source tight and brought business opportunities to the export of caustic soda in China. The Japanese earthquake caused its domestic caustic soda production and marketing to be unbalanced and needed to increase imports in the process of reconstruction. At the same time, our spanportation distance is relatively close, caustic soda export is convenient. Therefore, the increase in downstream demand and the caustic soda demand gap brought by the Japanese earthquake brought the rising price of caustic soda in China.

For the trend of the market, Li Wei, a business analyst, told the "daily economic news" that at present, the shipment of the company is smooth and the supply of goods is tight. Recently, the electricity restriction policy has been implemented everywhere, which has a greater impact on the operation of the enterprises, and the market supply will be tightened.

This week, the domestic soda market recovered and prices rose sharply. According to the data of domestic soda ash enterprises monitored by business associations, the average price of soda ash increased by 3.91%. At present, the main quotations of light soda ash in large factories in China are around 1900 yuan / ton ~2000 yuan / ton.

The reason for the rising price of soda ash is that the start-up of downstream enterprises is gradually resumed, the demand for soda ash has been enlarged, the limited power restriction has been limited, the enterprises have been underemployed, the market supply is tight, the raw salt in the upper reaches is tight, and the price is running at a high level, and some enterprises have stopped repairing. Li Wei said.

As the price rises too fast, the acceptance ability of the downstream industries is different. For the rising soda price, it still takes some time to digest. At present, many people in the industry hold a wait-and-see attitude.

Alkali companies welcome investment opportunities

Shenyin Wanguo analysts believe that under the background of "two alkali" market warming and electricity shortage, Sanyou chemical industry will become an obvious beneficiary. Soda production capacity last year was 2 million tons, second only to 2 million 200 thousand tons in Haihua, Shandong. The company's PVC and caustic soda will be double 300 thousand tons, and will expand to double 500 thousand tons in the next two years. In the first quarter of this year, the company completed private placement and acquired 240 thousand tons of viscose staple fiber. In addition, the company's 60 thousand tons of organic silicon production capacity was also officially put into operation at the end of last year.

The company has announced cooperation with the Qinghai multicolored mining industry to build a 1 million 100 thousand ton / year soda ash project. Due to the large amount of sodium chloride in the Saline Lake of Qinghai, the raw salt used for soda production is guaranteed. At the same time, the resources of limestone and coal in Qaidam Basin are very rich, and the raw materials of the soda project are complete. Therefore, Galaxy Securities calculates that the production cost of Qinghai soda ash project is only about 600 yuan / ton.

On the other hand, the recent shortage of electricity will reduce effective supply, and it is also one of the reasons for the continuous rise of the price of the two alkali, and the self sufficiency rate of the Sanyou chemical industry is 62%. The thermal power plant of the group can also protect the company's demand for electricity during the period of electricity shortage, so that the company can fully benefit from the increase in the price of the products, and it is also one of the companies that can fully benefit from the increase in product prices in the electricity shortage.

Steam coal prices rose for eight consecutive weeks, a cumulative gain of 7.17%.

Steam coal is one of the most stable products in recent years. Since March 23rd to May 12th, 5500 kcal power coal prices have been rising for eight weeks, with a cumulative increase of 7.17%.

Multiple factors push up the price of steam coal

According to the data of business and power coal, yesterday (May 13th), Qinhuangdao port's calorific value of 5500 kcal power coal rose to 825 yuan / ton, compared with the same period last year, it rose 80 yuan, or 9.7%. The latest thermal power index of the Bohai rim in May 11th was 820 yuan / ton, up 2 yuan / ton compared with 818 yuan / ton in the previous period.

Li Qian, a business analyst, told the daily economic news that the continuous rise in the price of steam coal in recent two months was related to the sharp decline in China's coal imports. As the international coal prices continue to operate at a high level, the price advantage of imported coal is not obvious in the long run. Coal imports have declined sharply and exports have rebounded sharply. Due to reduced imports and increased exports, the net import volume of coal in the first quarter was 26 million 590 thousand tons, compared with the same period last year, a decrease of 12 million 120 thousand tons, a decrease of 31.3%. Because of the decline in coal imports, coal enterprises using imported coal have shifted their purchasing targets to China, thus increasing the demand for domestic coal market and driving up the price of steam coal.

At the same time, from April 1st, Daqin Railway started a routine off-season maintenance for 1 months. Every day, "open the skylight" for 3 hours, the coal spanportation volume of Datong Qinhuangdao line has been greatly affected, and the amount of coal spanferred from the port railway has declined correspondingly, and the supply of steam coal has been damaged. However, there are varying degrees of "sluice restriction" in many parts of the country, which has also raised market expectations for the consumption of electricity coal, and the "panic" of downstream power plants and coal distribution enterprises has also pushed up the price of steam coal.

China Shenhua has obvious advantages in valuation

Thermal coal listed companies mainly have Datong Coal Industry (601001, closing price of 18.06 yuan), Yanzhou coal industry (600188, closing price 31.62 yuan), China Shenhua (601088, closing price 28.08 yuan). China Shenhua is one of the companies that the brokerage believes is obvious and valued. The main coal types of Shenhua company in China include coking coal, 1/3 coking coal, fat coal, gas coal and high quality anthracite. In 2010, the output of clean coal (metallurgical coal) accounted for 57% of its raw coal output, which was higher than that of other coking coal listed companies. In the same period, Xishan coal electricity (000983, closing price of 23.56 yuan), Pan Jiang shares (600395, closing price 31.69 yuan) and Kailuan shares (600997, closing price 17.26 yuan) accounted for 45%, 28% and 40% respectively. {page_break}

Shenyin Wanguo believes that the company's resource projects are rich in reserves, and the medium and long term continuous growth is outstanding. The output of self produced coal this year mainly comes from the output of the M & A mines. It is estimated that Baotou mining, Shenbao open pit mine and Chai Jia Gou coal mine will contribute about 26000000 tons of output. Haer Wusu mine and HEIDAI Gou mine will continue to carry out capacity expansion and spanformation with about 5 million tons of expansion space; the Huang Yuchuan mine, which is commissioned by the end of the year, is expected to contribute 4 million tons; Indonesia's coal and electricity can contribute 3 million tons. External coal is expected to rise from 72 million tons last year to 98 million tons. The company expects earnings per share 2011~2013 to be 2.26 yuan, 2.6 yuan and 2.96 yuan.

Liquid chlorine and acetic acid rank the top two in this week's drop list.

In this week's market for chemical products, liquid chlorine Acetic acid ranked the top two in the list.

According to the data, the average price of liquid chlorine earlier this week was 1200 yuan / ton, and the average price of weekend was 1000 yuan / ton, the decrease was 16.63%, which was 34.20% lower than that of the same period last year. The main reason for the drop in the price of liquid chlorine lies in the market price of the upstream caustic soda, but the cost has not been reasonably released; the prices of calcium carbide in the downstream PVC enterprises remain high. PVC The production cost is too high, and the demand for liquid chlorine is limited, resulting in bad profits. The liquid chlorine manufacturers have a higher operating rate, and the inventory pressure appears.

Jiang Wenfang, a data division of chemical industry branch, believes that if the liquid chlorine enterprises are still at full load, the market of liquid chlorine will surely be adjusted, and the liquid chlorine market will continue to be weak in the near future.

Reporters learned that the domestic production of liquid chlorine listed companies are mainly Haihua Shandong, *ST Bao Shuo (600155, closing price of 6.49 yuan).

Meanwhile, the price of acetic acid, a leading product, dropped sharply this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of acetic acid was 4571 yuan / ton, and at the weekend it dropped to 4157 yuan / ton, with a total decline of 9.06%.

Analyst Gao Zi Hai told the "daily economic news" that the main reason for this week's sharp reversal of the acetic acid market was the slowdown in exports and the increase in enterprise inventories. acetic acid Under the influence of the continuous decline of market prices, buyers have a strong wait-and-see mentality, and the purchasing intention is not obvious. In the lower reaches, the downstream demand of chloroacetic acid and acetate is not good. It is expected that the price of acetic acid will further decline as factory operating rates increase and demand weakens.

Acetic acid related listed companies include Hua Lu Heng Sheng (600426, closing price of 16.18 yuan), Jiangsu Thorpe (600746, closing price of 10.11 yuan) (major shareholder Jiangsu Thorpe group is the largest acetic acid production enterprise in China).