Wang Tiankai: The Industry'S "Overreaction" Should Not Continue

Recently, people often hear the media overreaction in the "high-speed rail incident" compared with the operation of the industry. The general meaning is: "it is no longer meaningful to depict unfortunate things more unfortunate instead of actively thinking about solutions."

Coincides with the seventh issue of "China"

How can the industry's profit margins slow down? Can the price of the products continue? How can the inventory increase be digested? Does the order pfer mean a decline in export competitiveness? Why do businesses generally feel that the industry situation is very grim this year?

Faced with the challenge of "slowing down", Wang Tiankai believes that many seemingly complex phenomena can often find a simple answer from a macro perspective.

The industry is experiencing some of the personal feelings in the big environment, and some are in the same direction.

We should take a cool look at the medium and long-term problems faced by the industry and the difficult problems at present, and use the market standard to measure the prospects, so that the self-healing function of the industry can be more effective.

Objective view of slowing down representation

What are the major environmental problems and what are the trends that still exist in spite of the big environmental factors?

SMEs often bear the brunt of tight funds.

The traditional idea of relying on cheap labor and over consumption of energy will never escape the curse of "cost".

Reporter: "slowing down" has become the key word to define the quality of the industry in the first half of the year. Do you agree with that?

Wang Tiankai: "slowing down" is the characteristics of the industry in the first half of the year, but it must be affirmed that the textile industry in the first half of the year is basically stable.

Production and marketing, exports, investment and efficiency grew steadily, and the domestic demand market continued to play an important supporting role. The improvement of industrial structure adjustment and operation quality provided fundamental impetus for the economic growth of the industry.

On this basis, some signs of "slowing down" need to be treated objectively.

For example, in the steady growth of production and marketing, total industrial output value in 1~6 months,

The sharp rise in raw material prices, the difficulty in financing enterprises, the rising cost of production, the pressure of operation, the appreciation of the renminbi, the export pressure and the slow growth of demand in the international market are prominent problems in the operation of the industry in the first half of the year.

Under these factors, the industry's profit growth continued to slow down.

The growth rate in 1~5 months was 4.05 and 10.73 percentage points lower than that in 1~4 months and 1~3 months respectively. The total profit growth in May was 30.04%, down more than 20 percentage points from the beginning of the year.

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Reporter: enterprises generally feel that this year's industry situation is extremely grim. What factors do you think is worth paying attention to?

Wang Tiankai: as a traditional industry, the textile industry has been faced with the pressure of adjustment and upgrading since it entered the market economy.

Visible difficulty is our normal state.

The only thing that needs to be distinguished is what is the big environmental problem and what is the trend of development which is still against the big environmental factors.

To clarify the relationship between the two, we can coordinate the pace of the pace of the enterprise itself and not be lost in the current predicament.

From a macro point of view, the direction of national policy regulation is to tighten up the currency around inflation control. Therefore, enterprises feel the financial strain is determined by the environment.

The policy sense of "restriction is more than encouragement" does not exist in the textile industry.

The macro goal is to bring down the growth rate. The problems we encounter are just the personal feelings in the great environment.

In the meantime, we must pay close attention to some unique external environment that the industry is facing. For example, the shortage of funds often bears the brunt of the small and medium-sized enterprises. The lag of the cotton system reform leads to the sharp fluctuation of cotton prices, and the stability of relevant policies must be maintained in the export market, especially the stability of the export tax rebate policy.

However, some problems can not be blamed for the "current situation". It should be regarded as the reality that the industry has been facing and will be more severe in the process of pformation and upgrading.

For example, labor prices and energy prices will be the medium and long-term problems accompanying the development of the industry.

At present, such a wage level, labor distribution is not ample.

It is the same reason for limited energy to push up the environmental input of enterprises. Relying on cheap labor force and excessive consumption of energy is definitely not feasible. Without changing the way of development, we will never escape the curse of "cost".

Long term problems and thorny issues

From the growth trend of terminal consumer goods, we can conclude that the temporary pmission of price conduction in the upstream sector will be digested sooner or later.

Whether monetary tightening policy without signs of loosening will cut off the "throat of funds" of SMEs should be vigilant.

The establishment of "improving the competitiveness of the manufacturing industry is the biggest protection for the planting industry" is the way to study and solve the cotton problem.

Reporter: what do you think are the specific reasons for the development dilemma at this stage?

Wang Tiankai: the cost constraint of labor resources and energy is a problem faced by the industry for a long time. Therefore, there is a long-term development strategy of "adjusting the industrial structure and changing the mode of growth".

Besides, there are also some urgent problems in the near future, which also have great influence on the normal operation of enterprises.

First, the issue of funds.

During the financial crisis, we have been investigating whether the market is shrinking because the market is dead or because the capital chain has broken down. Most of the enterprises that have been bankrupt are mostly capital chains.

A large number of small and medium-sized enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta have been closed down.

The rising cost of various forms is not enough to crush enterprises, but it is worth noting that the monetary tightening policy, which has so far had no signs of loosening, will cut off the "capital throat" of SMEs.

The results of this management survey showed that 33.9% of the enterprises surveyed were very nervous, and 41.7% of the surveyed cotton enterprises in the cotton textile industry, which had a large demand for capital, reflected the shortage of liquidity. Some enterprises were forced to sell products back to the capital at low prices under the pressure of funds, which aggravated the market price fluctuations.

Due to the difficulty of ensuring the survival of the enterprises, the medium and long-term investments will inevitably decrease. The number of new projects of fixed assets investment in the textile industry is negative growth in the first 5 months of this year, and the growth rate of investment will slow down month by month.

At the same time, monetary policy tightening led to the rise of market interest rates, and the cost of corporate financing increased significantly.

42.5% the surveyed enterprises using private lending reflect the interest rate above 10% of the benchmark interest rate of the bank. 19.1% of the enterprises reflect that the interest rate of private lending is 30% higher than that of the bank's benchmark interest rate.

The sharp increase in interest rates has made the financial situation of enterprises nervous. In 1~5 months, the interest expenses of textile enterprises above designated size increased by 37.8% over the same period last year, which is 6.75 percentage points higher than that of main business revenue.

Two, raw materials.

More than ten years ago, the problem of cotton still exists today, which shows that cotton problem has not been solved at all.

The cotton system has been in the traditional thinking of administrative allocation of resources for a long time, and it has been antagonistic to the manufacturing industry and the manufacturing industry.

We should set up the idea of "improving the competitiveness of manufacturing industry is the biggest protection for planting industry" to study and solve problems.

Last year, the state issued a lot of regulatory policies. From the perspective of market performance, cotton prices rose all the way and had a certain relationship with the rationality of national cotton auction.

We expect more effective regulation in the future.

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Reporter: does all kinds of problems come together, does it mean that the industry will be pessimistic in the second half of the year?

Wang Tiankai: it is totally unnecessary to measure the prospect with the standard of market deciding everything.

Judging from the growth trend of market demand for terminal consumer goods, it can be judged that the price pmission in the upstream sector of the industry is temporarily blocked and will be resolved sooner or later in a certain period of time.

Since the financial crisis, the industry has never felt the same feeling as the outside imagination. It can be said that the policy of expanding domestic demand is very effective.

Data show that in 1~6 months of this year, the domestic output value of Enterprises above Designated Size reached 2 trillion and 20 billion 986 million yuan, an increase of 32.42% over the same period last year, a 1.16 percentage point increase over the 1~3 months, but 12.76 percentage points higher than that of the same caliber export delivery.

The proportion of the domestic sales value of the enterprises above the industrial scale to the sales output value continued to increase, reaching 82.76% in 1~6, an increase of 1.5 percentage points over the same period last year.

As long as the terminal is good, there is no bad reason for upstream.

At present, the resistance encountered by the upstream and downstream in price pmission is largely a temporary obstruction caused by fluctuations in raw material prices.

Although there are still some unstable factors in the recovery of the international market, the supporting role of the domestic market makes the overall atmosphere of the textile industry far from the severity of rumors.

Data show that although the raw material price fluctuation of upstream enterprises has led to a marked increase in inventories, the turnover rate of finished products in Enterprises above Designated Size in 1~5 months is still 0.22% higher than that in the same period last year, reaching 18.83 times / year, and the total assets turnover rate reached 1.57 times / year, an increase of 8.73% over the same period last year.

In the current management survey, the average price of the main products of 59% of the surveyed enterprises was higher than that of the previous period, and large and medium-sized enterprises accounted for 67% and 60.5% respectively.

We should see that price pmission also depends on market adjustment of product structure, so long as the market can accept, price pmission will continue.

Industry chain seeks breakthrough

Bad orders may be due to a decline in demand, or a delay due to fluctuations in raw material prices.

If cotton spinning benefits decline is normal, then the printing and dyeing industry should pay special attention to future downside.

[D] if there is no breakthrough in the propaganda and acceptance of the domestic market, the energy of the hemp spinning will never be released.

Reporter: from the first half of the industry's economic operation situation, the industry chain upstream generally exist profit, orders and inventory condition is not good, is this a dangerous signal?

Wang Tiankai: for some extreme data performance, we need to do some rational interpretation.

Last year, the cotton textile industry could see clearly if the detailed analysis could be made. How much of the profit structure of cotton spinning last year depends on the product structure adjustment? How much of it depends on the drop in cotton prices? Some big enterprises have gained a lot of profit from the sale of cotton last year, which is much faster than the improvement of management efficiency.

Short term profits at the expense of neglect of management are abnormal profits. In the first half of this year, the so-called "decline in efficiency" is a return to normal.

The so-called "decline in orders" also need to carefully analyze the decline of what kind of situation.

In fact, the fluctuation of cotton prices is even more frightening than the rise, because the high price can also be pmitted to the lower reaches, and the frequent price fluctuation will affect the enterprise's order mentality.

For upstream enterprises, the bad order may be due to the decline in demand caused by the bad market itself, or the delay due to the fluctuation of raw material prices, which is now the latter.

Short list and small list are all right, medium long list must be implicated.

The decrease in the turnover rate of the finished products leads to the increase of the inventory level, which is tied up with the order quantity, and is a problem of price pmission. It can not be simply attributed to the shrinking demand.

On the contrary, the relatively stable turnover rate of downstream products can further confirm that the overall environment of the consumer goods market is conducive to the sustained growth of the industry in the future.

Reporter: while looking for confidence factors in the industrial chain, can we also see some weak links from it?

Wang Tiankai: if the cotton textile industry's profit decline is a normal performance, then the printing and dyeing industry's profit decline should pay special attention to the future downward trend.

Because the printing and dyeing industry has made great efforts in energy utilization and cleaner production in recent years, and the environment has become increasingly demanding.

In the first half of this year, the purchase price of fuel power of industrial enterprises increased by 10.5%, and the price of imported dyes and auxiliaries increased by 16.67% in 1~5.

In the first half of this year, the profit margin of the printing and dyeing industry is the lowest in all sectors of the industry chain. As the "bottleneck industry" in the middle of the industrial chain, if the pmission is poor, it will lose the game.

On the contrary, the efficiency of the linen textile industry has increased considerably.

But the key is to find out where the reason for the growth is. At present, the small environment of the linen textile industry is generally good, but if the publicity and acceptance of the domestic market do not break through, the growth energy will never be released.

From raw materials to hemp spinning to linen and to linen garments production chain, we should carefully analyze the growth of the first half of the year and achieve the specific links.

Two pformation of market structure

The growth rate of textile exports to developed countries has declined, which means that we have gradually withdrawn from the low value-added market.

The number of garment exports is decreasing, while the fabric exports with high added value and high technology are becoming more and more dominant.

Attention to the multi-layered demand structure of the domestic consumer market, and the structure of raw material supply will also be adjusted accordingly.

Reporter: it is thought that the competitiveness of China's textile exports is declining. In the first half of the year, "the price of textile exports in China is growing faster than the volume growth". How should we correctly view our traditional advantages in the future?

Wang Tiankai: the growth of export prices is faster than the increase in quantity, not that the quantity has not increased.

Not to mention excluding price factors, the number of industrial exports increased by 3.88% in the 1~5 months of this year. Even if the growth of export volume is flat, it will not have a disastrous impact on the export advantage of the industry.

Based on the ratio of domestic output value, the role of exports in the overall market of the industry has been getting smaller and smaller.

As for export price rise, there may be two factors: one is the pmission of cost rise; the other is the adjustment of product structure. Two

China's manufacturing of low-end products is actually decreasing, and manufacturing in Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand is increasing.

At present, the growth rate of textile exports in developed countries has declined, which only shows that we have gradually withdrawn from the low value-added market with raw materials and labor costs, and the profit distribution pattern is changing.

On the one hand, the number of garment exports has declined; on the other hand, the export of fabrics with high added value and high technology is becoming more and more dominant, which indirectly reflects the important role of printing and dyeing industry in the upgrading of industries in the future.

Reporter: can the industrial export situation in the second half of this year show a change in the pattern of confidence?

Wang Tiankai: since 2011, the overall growth rate of the international market has slowed down and declined compared with the same period last year.

Japan's demand for the earthquake was shrinking; the average growth rate of clothing retail in the EU in 1~4 months was 1%, down 2.8 percentage points from the same period in the previous year, and the import volume of American clothing increased by 6.28% over the same period of last year, 6.9 percentage points lower than that of the same period of last year.

Although the growth trend of emerging markets is basically good, but affected by rising prices and political unrest in some regions, the growth rate of terminal consumption demand has slowed down from last year.

According to the forecast data published by the International Monetary Fund in June, the global trade volume in 2011 is expected to increase by 8.2%, and the growth rate is 4.2 percentage points down from the previous year.

Therefore, in the second half of the year, the export orders of China's textile industry are hard to improve.

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The results of this management survey also showed that 65.1% of the surveyed garment enterprises did not increase in foreign orders in the next period compared with the first half of the year, and the market price competition faced by export processing small enterprises is still fierce.

Reporter: does this mean that the focus of the industry's future development should still be gradually pferred to the domestic market?

Wang Tiankai: Although inflation has restrained domestic textile and clothing consumption in the first half of this year, the growth rate has been maintained above the retail sales of consumer goods in the whole society.

The terminal consumption and brand consumption of apparel home textiles play a key role in boosting the market competitiveness of China's domestic market by leveraging brand and marketing channels. The price and sales volume will become a weathervane of domestic consumption growth, which is conducive to the smooth pmission of the cost of fabric and gauze products in the upper and middle reaches.

As the economic growth point of the new industry, industrial textiles need to connect with downstream application industries in the key areas such as filtration and separation, medical and health, automobile, sails and geotechnical industries, and expand the market demand of cross-border industry chain.

With the increasing proportion of domestic output value, the structure of raw material supply will be adjusted accordingly, while paying attention to the multi-level demand structure of domestic consumption market.

In addition to speeding up R & D applications of high simulation, functional, differential fiber and biomass fiber, qualified enterprises can even invest overseas to build textile raw material bases, establish textile recycling fiber recycling system, and enrich raw material supply channels.

Leading the way of thinking

The topic of management is a long-term topic. It has different connotation and denotation in different periods and stages of industry development.

> the total amount of liquidity of textile enterprises above designated size has not decreased, but the proportion of private lending has increased and financial risk has increased.

The western region should focus on resource advantages and national characteristics to make its own industries, and calm down the development ideas.

Reporter: according to the characteristics and direction of the industry structure adjustment, how will the China Textile entrepreneurs Federation carry out related activities?

Wang Tiankai: the topic of management is a long-term topic. It has different connotation and denotation in different periods and stages of industry development.

In September this year, we will adopt a wide range of management innovation benchmarking enterprises, and set up a number of model enterprises with leading value in different management fields, so as to provide fresh materials for enhancing the appeal of management topics.

Although the industry faces many pressures this year, the improvement of management level is very obvious.

In the 1~5 month, the labor productivity of Enterprises above Designated Size (calculated according to the gross industrial output value) was 482 thousand and 800 yuan / person, an increase of 21.62% over the same period last year, excluding the factor of factory price rise by 16.72%. The proportion of three of the enterprises above designated size was 5.83%, down 0.16 percentage points compared with that of the previous year.

Compared with other traditional industries, the textile industry has great potential in management, but it has not yet been fully excavated.

Through integration with information technology, high technology and other fields, the management mode of traditional industries will be rebuilt and reshaped, for example, there is room for further exploration in human resources management and financial management.

At the same time, we can see that some big enterprises are very advanced in their innovative thinking, and the management foundation is quite strong. They have the conditions and obligations to play a more extensive guiding role in the industry.

Reporter: this enterprise operator questionnaire survey has improved the number and industry distribution of the participating enterprises.

Is there any room for expansion in this questionnaire survey?

Wang Tiankai: 402 valid questionnaires were collected. If the actual reference value of the questionnaire is desired, the participating enterprises can expand to 1000.

But the key lies in the scientificity and effectiveness of the problem setting.

In the future, the questionnaire will be narrowed in the hunting area, highlighting the personalized problems that are more compatible with the current development of the industry, such as focusing on the funding and raw materials in the first half of the year, and focusing on the related issues.

Taking the situation of enterprise capital flow as an example, the current questionnaire is only a basic component of the source of investigation funds. In the future, we can learn more about the increase and decrease of various components and the change of interest expenses.

These are the details that can not be reached by macro analysis, and the significance of questionnaire survey is also here.

If we only look at the report, the total liquidity of the more than 30000 Textile Enterprises above designated size has not decreased, but the composition structure has changed, the bank loans have decreased and the proportion of private lending has increased, so financial risks need to pay special attention.

The total amount of working capital does not decrease, which does not mean that funds are not tight, which implies various factors such as the expansion of production scale and the expansion of sales volume.

Reporter: when evaluating the overall operation of the industry in the current and next period, the proportion of the surveyed enterprises in the western region is significantly higher than that in the central and eastern regions.

Does this mean the phased results of industrial gradient pfer?

Wang Tiankai: there are factors of industrial pfer, but not all.

The central and western regions have a higher confidence index than their past counterparts, especially in Xinjiang.

However, what needs to be concerned is that the western region should do its own industries around the resource advantages and national characteristics.

We must be very calm in identifying development ideas, especially taking into account some crucial elements such as technology, talent and market.

Industrial pfer is a major trend in the next 5 to 10 years.

At present, the study of domestic pfer will pay more attention to the global layout.

The industry pfer office, which is being prepared by the association, must first make a thorough exploration of the whole industry, and find out the insufficiency of its experience.

It is necessary to study the overall idea of the pferee, and to comb the supporting experience of the pferee.