The Overall Presentation Of &Nbsp Before And After High And Low; 2011, The Chemical Fiber Industry Entered A Downward Adjustment Period.

In 2011, under the complicated and changeable environment at home and abroad,

In 2011, the growth rate of main indicators such as output, import, export, operating rate, investment volume and total profit of chemical fiber industry showed a trend of slowing down before and after the high and low yield, and the main products of chemical fiber.

Output: the output of chemical fiber increased significantly in the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, especially after August, it continued to fall, and the output was 33 million 623 thousand and 600 tons, an increase of 13.87% over the same period last year, a decrease of 4.37 percentage points over the growth rate of 18.24% in 1~2 months.

Import: in 2011, a total of 884 thousand and 900 tons of imported chemical fiber were imported. The overall growth rate of chemical fiber imports showed a downward trend. In January, the growth rate of chemical fiber imports was 8.75%, while 1~12 months fell to -1.92%, down 10.67 percentage points.

Exports: cumulative exports in 2011

Start up rate: in the first quarter, the operation rate of various industries was maintained at a relatively high level. In the two quarter, the rate of commencement of operation in most industries was lower than that in the first quarter. In the three quarter, under the expectation of the traditional peak season of textile industry, the downstream demand recovered slightly, and the operation rate of polyester filament and polyester staple fiber industry has improved. However, other major industries have not improved, especially in the spandex, viscose and nylon industries. The fourth quarter, the overall operation of the chemical fiber industry is changing, the downstream demand has been reduced rapidly, the inventory pressure of various industries has increased, and the start-up rate has also been reduced rapidly. The spandex, viscose staple fiber and nylon industry have dropped to a historical low of 70%.

Investment: in 2011, the investment enthusiasm of the chemical fiber industry was still high. The actual investment was 73 billion 408 million yuan, up 47.87% from the same period last year, but it dropped by 86.34 percentage points from 134% at the beginning of the year.

Economic benefits: 1~12 months, the chemical fiber industry realized a total profit of 32 billion 62 million yuan, an increase of only 1.49% over the same period last year, and the growth rate was faster than that of the 1~2 month, a 128.66 percentage point drop over the growth rate of the month.

To sum up, the main indicators of the chemical fiber industry showed a trend of slowing growth, especially the fourth quarter, the trend of slowing down is more obvious. Therefore, judging that the chemical fiber industry has entered the downlink stage since the four quarter.

Judging from the polyester industry, which accounts for more than 80% of the chemical fiber output, there are two obvious adjustments in the market situation.

The first adjustment was in 3 and April. The polyester industry chain was affected by multiple unfavorable factors. Domestic monetary policy continued to tighten. Cotton futures continued to fall. The international crude oil futures and polyester raw materials PX continued to fall, leading to a weakening of the cost supporting role of PTA. At the same time, it was dragged down by the power shortage and market confidence of the downstream weaving factories, and the polyester factory had a quick pullback in the stock and capital pressures.

In mid May, the price of raw materials began to rebound, and the raw materials inventory of downstream textile mills was exhausted. Rigid demand led to a steady rise in the prices of polyester products, and the operation of the industry resumed stability.

The second wave adjustment first appeared in the second half of 9. The European debt crisis caused the global systemic risk to fall. The price of PTA futures in the upper reaches dropped sharply, and the price of polyester fiber also declined rapidly. Downstream weaving factories "bought or sold or fell" and watched carefully.

As demand for the terminal continued to shrink, the market continued to fall in October.

In the early November, there appeared an accelerated decline and many enterprises suffered losses. For this reason, the industry associations and related enterprises advocated strengthening industry self-discipline, avoiding vicious competition and maintaining market stability, and finally stabilized in mid November and rebounded slightly.

In terms of industries, chemical fiber industries are suffering from unhappiness.

The profits of the chemical fiber industry mainly came from polyester and nylon industries, and the profit of polyester fiber was 19 billion 175 million yuan, an increase of 11.14% over the same period last year, accounting for 69.76% of the profits of the whole industry, and the profit of nylon was 3 billion 247 million yuan, up 86.71% from the same period last year, accounting for 11.81% of the profits of the whole industry.

The viscose fiber industry and the spandex industry were very bleak, and profits fell sharply last year.

Judging from the three quarterly report of the listed companies in the chemical fiber industry, most polyester polyester enterprises and nylon enterprises are still profitable in the three quarter, and almost all the viscose enterprises and Spandex Enterprises in the three quarter are already losing money.

The development of chemical fiber industry has obvious periodicity, basically a cycle of 2~3 years.

This round of rise cycle since March 2009, the industry was affected by the world financial crisis quickly bottomed out after the rebound began, last September has been extended for 30 months, since the four quarter of 2011, the chemical fiber industry into the downlink cycle, when to turn, depends on when the demand recovery.

Influenced by various factors, the overall operation of the chemical fiber industry is expected to be better in the second half of 2012.

Specific predictions are as follows:

Market: influenced by demand and other factors, the price trend is more sensitive. It is expected that the fluctuation of the chemical fiber market will be strengthened in 2012, and the overall trend will remain low.

Output: the growth rate is slowing down, and the output is expected to reach 36 million 200 thousand tons, an increase of about 8%.

Import volume: a slight decrease, estimated to import 800 thousand tons, a decrease of about 10%.

Volume of exports: continue to increase, expected to export 2 million 800 thousand tons, an increase of about 20%.

Economic efficiency: a decrease, estimated to be reduced by around 10%~20%.