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China'S Macroeconomic Outlook

2012/3/27 12:35:00 8

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In the 2012 government report on the two sessions, the GDP growth rate is expected to be reduced to 7.5% this year, the first time in 8 years, less than 8%.

GDP growth rate is expected to decline, indicating that the policy will focus on adjusting the growth mode that relies too much on investment and exports and paying attention to improving the quality of economic development and achieving healthy and sustainable development.

In the first quarter, GDP will continue downward trend in the two quarter of last year, and the overall industrial production, foreign trade and import and export will grow at GDP or 8.4% in the first quarter.

This year

Trade growth

Compared with last year, the next step is a big probability event. The slowdown in trade growth will significantly reduce the size of the new foreign exchange fund. In addition, the reduction in the appreciation of the renminbi will also reduce international capital inflows.

If foreign exchange holdings are too fast, it is very necessary for the central bank to reduce the deposit rate.

In the first quarter, interbank liquidity eased month by month, and the central bank adopted the open market reverse repurchase, stop issuing central bank tickets and lowering the quota to supplement the liquidity of the interbank market.

However, the new credit is constrained by the loan to deposit ratio and the slowdown in demand. The cumulative growth in 1-2 months is the lowest point in the 09 years.

We expect the two quarter.

China's monetary policy

It will remain stable. The central bank's policy of "pre fine-tuning" will maintain continuity and stability. The focus of the policy is to promote loans to SMEs to solve the problem of financing which has long been plagued. On fiscal policy, local fiscal revenue will be more dependent on central pfer payments because of the decline in the main tax revenue, and this year's two sessions report will raise the size of the central government's local debt from 200 billion to 250 billion yuan, which is obviously due to the tight fiscal concerns this year.

From the credit situation, platform lending and SME credit support or improve credit conditions.

At present, the private lending market is surging, and "drinking poison to quench thirst" has been unsustainable. Policies to support the development and financing of small and medium-sized enterprises are being promoted comprehensively, and the credit level of SMEs is expected to gradually improve.

This year, the CBRC combed the platform loan again, indicating that the CBRC had a "lowering the old control new" attitude on the total loan volume.

and

commercial bank

In the handling of platform loans, more attention will be paid to debt repayment and liquidity risk.