Can The World Economy Be &Nbsp?

The European debt crisis is clouded, and the fate of the euro is uncertain.

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In addition, the conflict in the Middle East, the Iran nuclear crisis affecting the world, the severe political situation in Syria, and the global oil supply are all making the global economic outlook chaotic.

"In 2012, the downward trend of global economy continued to dominate."

In March 24th, on the eve of the "Eighteen big" Eve: economic situation analysis conference sponsored by Tsinghua University, China and world economic center (CCWE), Vanak, economist at the World Federation of big enterprises, said that global economic growth will slow down in 2012, because the economic growth of developed and emerging economies has lost some momentum in March 24th.

The US economy continues to stabilize, employment and productivity improvements are key factors for sustained growth in the United States; the euro zone is likely to avoid a severe recession because of the stability of some key indicators recently.

The global economy is expected to face a confrontation.

The World Federation of big business, which is based on van AK, predicts that global gross domestic product will grow by 3.2% in 2012, 3.5% in 2013 and 2016, and 2.7% in 2017 to 2025.

The expected growth rate for each period is less than 3.6% (3.6% is the average growth rate from 1996 to 2005 before the onset of severe recession).

A large part of the growth rate from 2013 to 2016 will come from developed economies including the United States, the euro area and Japan. The growth rate of these developed countries is expected to increase on the basis of 1.3% growth in 2012, reaching 2% in the following four years, and then slowing down from 2017 to 2025 to 1.9%.

Li Daokui, director of the China and world economic center of Tsinghua University, said that this year's situation is indeed full of uncertainty.

However, judging from the current international situation, at least Europe has gradually shown signs of "stability" in the middle of "chaos".

Germany's stock market has increased by 30% over the past three months, and the world's economy has been better than expected.

Li Daokui said, no

For the future of European market, van ake is not as optimistic as Li Daokui expected.

He believes that despite the containment of the European debt crisis, so far there is still great risk, because the debt crisis is likely to spread to Portugal, Spain and other countries.

"The biggest impact on the global economy is not from Europe and America, but from emerging markets."

Vanak said that the growth rate of emerging economies headed by China and India will slow down: after the total GDP growth of 5.1% in 2012, the growth rate from 2013 to 2016 is expected to grow to 4.9%, and then to 3.4%.

In addition, van ake warned that the slowdown in global economic growth will lead to a decrease in per capita income and risk to developed and developing countries.

For developed economies, slower growth in income will lead to reduced funding for Medicare and pension schemes. Both the US and the eurozone have to face the trend of unsustainable fiscal welfare plans.

Moreover, the slowdown in income growth will also make the source of national income smaller.

For emerging markets, the growth of per capita income is likely to be uneven.

The US debt problem is far ahead of Europe.

Unlike the above view of the European economy, Wang Jian, President of the China Association for macroeconomics, believes that the debt problem of the United States is far more than that of Europe.

"Now we are discussing the world economy, the general view is that the European economy is not good, and the US economy seems to be stronger and stronger, but I think the worse is the US economy."

Wang Jian said that when we studied the European sovereign debt crisis, we only saw its side.

Do not forget what the sovereign currency is? Is it the Greek currency? Obviously not, but the euro. When it is too late, the European Central Bank's "scatters" is over.

"The crisis in Europe seems to be very fierce, but the real concern is the United States."

Wang Jian said that from last year to now, the Federal Reserve has thrown 10000 billion dollars, for example, in the second half of last year, the Federal Reserve threw about 600000000000 dollars.

After July, the US stock fell sharply, which is related to the Federal Reserve's desperate efforts to "release the US dollar".

Now, the Fed has not mentioned QE3, but it has come up with a QE3 of the gem, that is, to buy these mortgage-backed securities, to put the money out and then borrow it.

Some people say that the Fed is fed up with such a silly thing? Actually, it is not so simple.

Wang Jian believes that behind this pition is the bank's rotten assets into the assets of the Fed, so that the assets of banks have been improved.

The United States has been working hard to deal with the "toxic" assets that have not yet been digested after the outbreak of the subprime crisis.

However, it should be noted that assets like this are not many in Europe, and Europe is a sovereign debt on the face. The sovereign debt of the United States is more than that of Europe. The debt formed in the subprime crisis is natural. It is not now not exposed, but is actively concealed.

Judging from this, we should pay more attention to the crisis in the United States.

Wang Jianqiang tune,