Obvious Signs Of Macroeconomic Downturn

China's GDP quarter showed a continuous downward trend in 2011, while the government's work report in the two sessions lowered the growth of GDP to 7.5% this year, indicating that the macroeconomic adjustment signs are more obvious. Through the recent macroeconomic signal tracking study, the multi signal shows that the macroeconomic signs are more obvious, and it needs to closely follow and attach great importance to investors and industrial operators.

From the PMI representing the manufacturing index, we fell below 50 key points. The study found that in March 22nd, HSBC released the HSBC China manufacturing PMI preview index in March, which was 48.1, lower than the 49.6 PMI value of manufacturing industry in February, the lowest in four months. Judging from this indicator, 50 is generally regarded as the "watershed" of the PMI index by the industry. The PMI index is higher than 50, indicating that the manufacturing industry is running well and the PMI index is below 50, indicating that the manufacturing industry is showing a downward trend overall. The index indicates that the new order index has reached a new low of four months, indicating that both domestic demand and external demand continue to weaken. Among them, the new export orders index is still shrinking, but the range is decreasing, suggesting that domestic demand may slow down more quickly. What is even more worrying is that the slowdown in manufacturing activity has begun to affect the job market. The employment index has been at its lowest level since March 2009. The decline in the initial value of the HSBC Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index in March is the same as the recent slowdown in industrial production.

From the perspective of state-owned enterprises representing the important components of China's economy, Management situation Began to weaken. According to the latest data released by the Ministry of finance, the profit of state-owned and state holding enterprises decreased in the first two months of this year. The total profit of central management enterprises decreased by 19.8% compared with the same period last year. The total profit of local state-owned enterprises decreased by 10% compared with the same period last year. This is the first time in three years since the negative profit growth in the first two months of 2009. The first fall of large state-owned enterprises in the past three years shows that there are certain factors affecting the economic level. Our research finds that state-owned enterprises represent a barometer of China's economy to some extent. Under the background of dividend policy and policy stimulus, the overall poor operation of electricity and steel industries also reflects the contradiction in the development of the economic structure. Therefore, the downward trend of the macro-economy is obvious from the perspective of the decline in the growth rate of state-owned enterprises.

From the perspective of listed companies, the data show slower growth or slower growth. At present, most companies publish only 2011 Annual Reports, and fewer quarterly announces, so they need to closely follow, but from the listed companies whose performance has been announced, their annual reports are very close. Increase rate There may be a decrease in the same comparison. Statistics show that as of March 25th, a total of 787 listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen two issued the 2011 Annual Report, of which 7 of the company's performance grew year-on-year, and 3 of the company's performance showed negative growth. Of the 456 Shanghai and Shenzhen Main Board companies that had issued annual reports, 163 of them showed negative growth last year, accounting for 36%., but it is worth mentioning that 231 of the 231 negative growth companies came from 152 manufacturing companies, accounting for 65%. That is to say, the performance of manufacturing enterprises has been greatly influenced by the macro economy last year. According to statistics, the total revenue of 787 listed companies totaled 4 trillion and 760 billion yuan last year, an average growth rate of 47.95% over the same period last year. The net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company amounted to 490 billion 73 million yuan, with an average growth rate of 13.92%. Among them, there are 99 companies with net profit of more than 100%, and 6 companies have net profit of over 1000%. According to statistics, 231 companies showed negative growth in net profit last year, accounting for 29.35% of the listed companies. Of the 231 companies with declining performance, 84 companies had a net profit drop of over 50%, of which 33 of the net profit fell by more than 100%, and 8 of the companies had a net profit of over 1000%. Although many companies' annual reports are still in the process of publication, the growth rate of net profit increased by 30% over the previous year, which has already shown a marked decline. Therefore, the growth or decline of the performance of the listed companies representing China's high-quality enterprises also shows that the downward trend of the macro economy is not optimistic.

From a regional perspective, Economically active region The economic downturn is more determined. We look at the economically active Guangdong Province, the situation is not optimistic, according to Xinhua news agency information: this year, Guangdong's economic growth "three carriages" overall slowdown, the macro-economic operation is facing the most severe downward trend since 2008. The latest statistics released by Guangdong Provincial Bureau of statistics show that this year, Guangdong import and export slowed sharply, the growth rate is close to "zero growth". In 1-2 months, the province achieved a total import and export of US $126 billion 840 million, an increase of 1.1% over the same period last year, of which 73 billion 460 million US dollars in exports increased by only 0.7%. In terms of investment, despite the sharp growth in the real estate market, the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the province still shows a downward trend. In 1-2 months, the fixed assets investment in the province was 147 billion 859 million yuan, an increase of 14.2%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points over the same period. In the domestic consumer goods market, the growth rate has also dropped significantly. In 1-2 months, the total retail sales of consumer goods in Guangdong totaled 366 billion 818 million yuan, up 10.4% from the same period last year, and the growth rate dropped 5.7 percentage points. As the largest province of China's import and export and the representative area of China's economic activity, Guangdong's macroeconomic downward trend is more obvious, which also reflects a microcosm of the domestic regional macro economy, and its impact on China's macro-economy needs to be further tracked.

On the whole, from the obvious decline in the recent performance of state-owned enterprises, the possible fall in the growth rate of listed companies over the same period, the large fall in the PMI index and the exchange rate changes, the probability of macroeconomic downturns is increasing. Therefore, under the more obvious macroeconomic variables, the prudent strategy should be adopted in the investment field. Paying close attention to the change of indicators in the economic field will be the key to grasp the initiative of the market.